[Matt_Horton]

Place more bets here...... : Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:49 am  

Last post on previous thread

Last post on previous thread

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:09 pm  

Totesport Trophy
Entries released yesterday for this and a few firms have it priced up. The one who interests me in this is the Willie Mullins mare Quevega . She hacked up in her first two starts for Mullins in Ireland (a soft ground Maiden Hurdle and a Heavy ground Novice's race) before disappointing in behind Won In The Dark - as far as i know there's no excuse put forward for that run.

The run that interests me the most though is her 3rd place finishing behind Grivette and Hurricane Fly the form of which has been franked by both the front two (Grivette having now won 4 on the spin since PU behind Questarabad), the 4th has won a Grade 3 whilst the 7th is Grade 1 placed. Given the current climate provided the meeting goes ahead I can't see her not getting her ground.

She's not run since that but provided she's fit and healthy - and she should be running off a mark of around 127, which IMHO looks unbelievably lenient for a horse of her quality.

25/1 with Bet365 looks far too big about a potential David Nicholson Hurdle contender.

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:25 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

Totesport Trophy
Entries released yesterday for this and a few firms have it priced up. The one who interests me in this is the Willie Mullins mare Quevega . She hacked up in her first two starts for Mullins in Ireland (a soft ground Maiden Hurdle and a Heavy ground Novice's race) before disappointing in behind Won In The Dark - as far as i know there's no excuse put forward for that run.

The run that interests me the most though is her 3rd place finishing behind Grivette and Hurricane Fly the form of which has been franked by both the front two (Grivette having now won 4 on the spin since PU behind Questarabad), the 4th has won a Grade 3 whilst the 7th is Grade 1 placed. Given the current climate provided the meeting goes ahead I can't see her not getting her ground.

She's not run since that but provided she's fit and healthy - and she should be running off a mark of around 127, which IMHO looks unbelievably lenient for a horse of her quality.

25/1 with Bet365 looks far too big about a potential David Nicholson Hurdle contender.

This may/does sound daft, when is the race ?

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:27 pm  

JWP wrote:

This may/does sound daft, when is the race ?

February I think.

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:18 pm  

Second weekend of February - gives plenty of time to get her fit though if she goes it will likely be her first run of the year

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:24 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

Second weekend of February - gives plenty of time to get her fit though if she goes it will likely be her first run of the year

Joys of antepost guess work. Got a few in place for cheltenham already but its always risky in advance although price advantageous usually.

How likely is this to run.. obviously you cant say if injured etc but is it being aimed at the race do you know?

Also on your Hurricane Fly viw.. how sure are you its in the Supreme?? Strongly fancy it myself but seems it could be in any of 3 races.

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:38 pm  

I'm not convinced the Fly is going to the Supreme.

Mullins has all but ruled out the Champion (backed him at 40's for it), so it's either the Ballymore (at 9's currently) or the Supreme (5's tops). I think he's the best Novice Hurdler we've seen this year - the only horse IMHO who is capable of beating him at 2m 5f is his stablemate Mikael D'Hagunet.

People talk up Mad Max and Diamond Harry but from what I've seen of them so far they don't have the turn of foot of the Hurricane and IMO Mikael is a classier sort than Diamond Harry anyway for the 2m 5f race.

Can't say for sure that it's the target but she's the class horse in the race and if she goes for it then she sure won't be 25's on the day. Given none in the field are guaranteed to run at this stage I make her a 12/1 shot at most if she lines up. Well worth the risk for double the price IMO.

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:07 pm  

if you back a horse and it doesnt run, do you get your money back?

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:14 pm  

Sadly not - except if you're on Non-Runner-No-Bet (NRNB for short). They don't generally do this until about a week before the race itself for the Festival.

IMO it's worth the risk, can see the Hurricane having two more runs at most between now and Cheltenham (next start likely to be the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Hennessy weekend).

: Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:28 pm  

hope you're right
hurricane fly at 6 and quevega each way at 21