Personally go for the best of the rest Wire_85 - I don't rate the O'Brien colts this year particularly with their supposed best horse suffering a setback.
There's a few I like over in Ireland tomorrow - so having had a good sit down and a study and hit the bar bar three times over today it's time to kick on and hopefully into some form:
The Curragh
15:50Calm Bay - I like to look for a bit of value in these big sprint handicaps and whilst in all likelihood Hawkeyethenoo is the proverbial group horse in a handicap his run last time out in the Epsom Dash proved to his followers the kind of trouble you can get in backing hold up horses in 20+ runner sprint handicaps. Calm Bay is from the relatively small yard of Harry Rogers and partnered as he was last time out by the 7lb claimer Danny Byrne. Last time out he showed immense promise when finishing runner-up under a cool front running ride at Navan, he was caught only in the last 100 yards on that day by the very smart Collingwood and whilst this is a much larger field he has the right draw to be able to take advantage of his early pace. He likes fast ground and whilst it's a slight concern that both of his wins have come on Dundalk's all-weather track over 5f he's shown enough in his turf starts to suggest that he can be competitive in this grade.
Advice: 1ptwin 0.5pts place @ 25/1 1,2,3,4,5 places (Skybet)17:10Carraiglawn - There are a fair few shorter in the betting than this fellow but all have significant holes in their profile in relation to this race. Carraiglawn himself is an improving colt from a shrewd yard and has the assistance of a good jockey in Davey Moran. Whilst not the first string for his yard on jockey bookings (stable jockey Kevin Manning rides Puncher Clynch) he has the right sort of profile for a race of this nature being unbeaten this season and stepping up in grade. He had just the one run as a 2yo and began his 3yo season with two placings in Maidens before stepping up following a Maiden win at Navan to take a 10f listed event here in a very quick time. He won a shade cosily on that day and can be expected to improve on that run in what looks pre-race to be a pretty sub-standard Irish Derby with no English or French Derby winner and At First Sight (runner-up at Epsom) seemingly slipping down the Ballydoyle pecking order rapidly with Joseph O'Brien now taking the ride.
Advice: 2pts Win, 1pt Place @ 25/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet, Victor Chandler, Stan James, William Hill)Thanks for reading and good luck all
Martin
