Not a great week thus far - hopefully the big Saturday meeting will see some value bets coming in:
15:50 AscotFravashi- Ex-Australian horse now in the care of Godolphin having raced for them in Dubai. I was somewhat surprised to see just how far down the market this horse is given his run in Dubai in which he was second to todays rival Joy And Fun (War Artist in behind along with the blisteringly fast California Flag). He had the three runs in Dubai and never really showed anything until dropped back to 6f for the above race, which is a Group 1 sprint in all but name - the form has been let down a bit by the relative poor performance of Joy And Fun in the Group 1 Krisflyer Sprint at Kranji, Singapore last month (5th behind Green Birdie) but he was one of the few horses who was really running on at the finish. Godolphin have had a few runners in this race, most notably Diabolical a couple of years ago and with the marked improvement shown in Fravashi's form when dropped back in trip in Dubai it's fair to assume that his new trainer has worked out his best distance and surface. Frankie Dettori taking over from Ahmed Ajtebi is a positive sign and I expect him to be finishing well and hopefully coming from midpack ala the Al Quoz Sprint. Starspangledbanner, Happy Zero and Kinsale King rate the main dangers along with his Dubai conqueror Joy And Fun.
Advice: Fravashi 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (1,2,3,4 Bet365)
16:25 AscotMarching - Another ex-Australian Godolphin representative who's been plying his trade in Dubai over the winter. His best performances down under were a Group 2 win over 10f as a 3yo and running the legendary Weekend Hussler to 3 lengths in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas at 1m when the same age. Since then he's been racing primarily over 7f-1m with two running-on down the field placings on the tapeta track at Meydan his only runs in Dubai this winter, he was behind stablemate Sirocco Breeze on both occasions and he's proven to be a useful yardstick in his own right. Since being brought back to the UK Marching has been contesting small field listed and conditions races - at Haydock when badly hampered inside the final furlong in a race won by Lovelace (finished third) and when a front-running second to Harrison George in a conditions race at York. He shapes as though the drop back to 6f will suit him and the stronger early pace should enable him to use his stamina to better effect, I expect to see him finishing strongly late on and Godolphin had Asset finish runner-up in this race last year off a big weight. He's still engaged in the July Cup and a Group 3 at The Curragh as well as the Stewards Cup at Goodwood. The only negative is the jockey, Ahmed Ajtebi and for that reason only a very small bet is advised.
Advice: Marching 0.5pts each-way @ 40/1 (1,2,3,4,5 Stan James)Good Luck tomorrow - it's been top quality racing all week and hope all have enjoyed it
Martin