Incoming stats nerd here... And a massive TED Talk on the way. But I hope you enjoy!
First of all, don't read if you're about to go for a drive and you get bored/tired by reading. But maybe some of you will find this interesting. So here goes.
Current Pack = Philbin, Cooper, Bullock and Mulhern
New Pack = Amor, Mikaele and Harrison
Future Pack = Dudson and Kasiano
*I think people will understand why I have put Harrison under new, since he hasn't played yet*
The New Pack brings the age down by 1.4 years on average, adds 1.25 inches to the height on average, but lowers the weight by 1.25kg on average for the entire pack this season. This weight decrease is mostly down to Amor and Harrison being 104 and 105kg. But Mikaele is 109kg which would put him as the 2nd heaviest for this season behind Bullock.
I put all of the players into a table and ranked them by Height and Weight. I then took their average rank in each area to see how they would all rank overall. So for example, if Philbin was Rank 1 for Height and Rank 2 for Weight, his average would be 1.5. This is done for all players to see who has the best height-weight comparison, so the better the overall average rank, the more 'effective' the prop I suppose. Call that word whatever you want.
Rank:
1. Sam Kasiano
2. Joe Bullock
3. Gil Dudson
4. Thomas Mikaele
5. James Harrison
6. Robbie Mulhurn
7. Mike Cooper
8. Joe Philbin
9. Kyle Amor
I did one with age added as well but the Top 5 remains the same in a slightly different order and Amor stays 9th.
This ranking is really encouraging to me honestly. It shows we brought in bigger players than what we already had like Bullock and Harrison. One of which we are still waiting to see and the other is inconsistent but can be effective. And Mikaele becomes a Top 5 prop instantly which is hugely encouraging, considering he could be ready to go right now.
Seeing Kasiano and Dudson at 1st and 3rd gives me a lot of confidence for next season. I guess most of us are assuming Cooper is on his way out, and possibly even Philbin. And given Amor won't be here next season anyway, I feel this table is also encouraging for the "let's get the dead wood out" conversation. So seeing the 3 smallest and lightest props gone, with Cooper probably taking up a huge salary cap is good news. With Mulhern, I just don't know where I stand, probably like a lot of you. I certainly don't think he's ineffective, but is he worth having a Wire jersey, I'm not too sure.
For the rest of the squad, I'd be more than happy to see Thewlis as the starting Fullback but Dufty could be a menace there. I'd 100% give Wrench the #2 jersey next season with absolutely zero hesitation. Mata'utia seems like a bit of a waste to me in all honesty, but I was more excited about Minikin anyway who may still have something to offer this season if he gets back. However, with big names clearing out, we could look to spend big at centre next season, but I think Powell likes Mata'utia too much. I will admit though, he has looked better these last couple of weeks, especially when he's had Wrench to his right.
I'd personally move Currie into Loose Forward. Still a big player with decent speed, and he could be quite the ball-playing Lock, and skilful down the middle when everyone else on the opposition could be knackered after dealing with BIG SAM KASIANO for an hour. I think this opens the door for either King to move to Second Row, as I've seen some people mention, which then might leave room for Minikin and honestly I'd be okay with that but King is just too effective at Centre when he's in form. I've seen people mention Kelepi Tanginoa a couple of times, and he seems like he's got a bit of pace and is annoying to tackle. And that's all I want from a Second Rower.
As for the number 6 jersey, there have been discussions about Dufty playing there (if we get him), given fullbacks and stand offs seem to switch positions easily in the NRL, I'd have no problem with that. Riley Dean may need another year or two but maybe a loan move could be good until Dufty makes the inevitable move back to Australia and Thewlis gets to start at Fullback. However, the feeling for me around Dean is similar to Dec Patton. Young lad, world class talent around him, steady development, with clear signs of quality but can he be effective enough, can he control a game, can he make things happen and then do it on a regular basis. I have faith that he can with more experience.
Last point. I think Danny Walker is a top player. In about 2 years time, if he keeps improving at the yearly rate that he has been since we got him, I'd be more than happy to give him the #9 jersey, if Clark had to leave of course. Size aside, he reminds me of Mickey Higham a little bit. Seems like a quick thinker, intelligent player (Higham and Walker both underrated in that regard). Quick from dummy half, and has a 'head down and go' style when it's needed.
My Team for 2023:
1. Dufty
2. Wrench
3. Minikin
4. King
5. Ashton
6. Dean
7. Williams
8. Kasiano
9. Clark
10. Bullock
11. Tanginoa
12. Holmes
13. Currie
Subs:
Dudson
Mikaele
Harrison
Walker
The alternative is Dufty at 6 and Thewlis at 1. I'd be happy with either version.
It's our year for sure!
