So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Tue Apr 28, 2015 2:45 pm  

76 of 79 Deceased NFL players found to have brain damage The scary thing about this is that neurological studies show it's not the "big hits" which do the damage. Rather it's the cumulative effect of smaller impacts going right back to college and even school. Granted, gridiron and RL are different games. But there are similarities in the nature and frequency of collisions. I'm certain any kind of similar study in RL would likely reveal congruent issues. Right now the NFL really is in danger of being sued into non-existence. I doubt it will cease to exist. But some kind of compromise will have to be made the consequences of which may well be profound.

76 of 79 Deceased NFL players found to have brain damage The scary thing about this is that neurological studies show it's not the "big hits" which do the damage. Rather it's the cumulative effect of smaller impacts going right back to college and even school. Granted, gridiron and RL are different games. But there are similarities in the nature and frequency of collisions. I'm certain any kind of similar study in RL would likely reveal congruent issues. Right now the NFL really is in danger of being sued into non-existence. I doubt it will cease to exist. But some kind of compromise will have to be made the consequences of which may well be profound.

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Tue Apr 28, 2015 7:31 pm  

Apologies for not having time to read the article, but what would the brain damage ratio be for normal humans through their life?

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:43 pm  

To be sure, players represented in the data represent a skewed population. CTE can only be definitively identified posthumously, and many of the players who have donated their brains for research suspected that they may have had the disease while still alive.

This bit's important, although it's obviously still very concerning. It's also worth noting, I think, that the types of collision in NFL are different from those in rugby. I recall reading a piece a while back about how the use of helmets and massive shoulder pads (armour, really) had led to "tackles" which effectively involved players launching themselves head first at each other, often resulting in very heavy contact to the head. In RL, while such head contact does occur, it's almost always accidental, and less frequent or high-speed than in NFL. There's an average of 1 concussion in every two NFL games, which is a sod of a lot every weekend. I don't think RL tots up quite so many.

Having said that, I have no doubt that these developments in the states are behind the recent moves to take concussion much more seriously in the RL, and that's a good thing. I've already "sent off" a lad in an amateur game this year who appeared to be knocked out briefly in a tackle. He was all for carrying on, but I wouldn't continue the game until he was off. I was expecting more resistance from his team, but actually they were entirely in agreement : I think the message is getting through about not mucking about with head injuries.

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:34 am  

It's a mistake to think these injuries are brought about solely through head-to-head tackles. For sure they are a factor. A big factor. But the scientists looking at this problem seem to think relatively minor knocks (such as your head hitting the floor) are a much bigger issue. Head on tackles, whilst representing a tremendous amount of concussive energy, happen comparatively rarely next to your regular "rough and tumble" impacts which are less damaging but might occur five, ten or twenty times more often.

Slow and steady wins the race unfortunately.

Even more worrying is the fact that brain scarring was present right back to the early teens. The doctors doing the trial were absolutely shocked wend they discovered this.

To be honest, I reckon football faces even bigger problems with all the heading that goes on. But you can bet this issue will arrive on SL's doorstep - especially if some tragedy is associated with such in the near future. There are lawyers who will be positively salivating at the possibilities.

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:20 am  

Yup, up until recently, getting knocked out was seen as a badge of honour in RL. You got up and played on and you were a hero. RL will have a problem with this, most importantly because the sport doesn't have anything like the insurance cover or access to funding as the NFL has. I remember a young player at Saints who had a reputation for getting knocked out every week, but can't remember his name.

But isn't this what disclaimers were invented for? I.e these are our anti concussion procedures to minimise the possibility of brain injury, but sign here to say you accept it's your will to play regardless?

As mentioned this is all being pushed by the lawyers. NFL is suffering, but it won't be long until other sports are picked up. I'd imagine motor sports will be bad for this as well. How does boxing fare in this regard? You'd have to imagine that everyone who ever boxed for a few years would be showing signs? Pro wrestlers, MMA fighters? Hopefully the instances in RL are few and far between as inbetween worrying about the financial ruination of the sport, there would be a guy with brain damage causing it. This highlights the shoulder charge debate, I think everyone misses the old big hits. They would fire up an entire stadium and turn a dour game into a frenzy. But the impacts of those challenges were often conducive to concussion injuries through either impacting the head directly or causing it to collapse forward during impact.

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:20 am  

Well, that's the thing. Aside from removing the last shred of uncertainty we really had no need of a prolonged and likely expensive study to find a link to brain injury. The relationship between being repeatedly punched in the head and serious brain ailments has been known of in boxing for in excess of a century.

Signing some kind of disclaimer absolving the sport of all responsibility sounds like a nice, neat solution. But whether such could ever be an acceptable avenue under current legislation is doubtful.

My guess is some disclaimer will come into being with the individual sports required to set aside a percentage of profits to cover a lifetime's medical bills. But even this might not be robust enough to survive repeated legal challenges.

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:44 am  

Mugwump wrote:

Well, that's the thing. Aside from removing the last shred of uncertainty we really had no need of a prolonged and likely expensive study to find a link to brain injury. The relationship between being repeatedly punched in the head and serious brain ailments has been known of in boxing for in excess of a century..

I think this is why I'm not unduly panicking about the end of contact sports. The impact of boxing on the brain has long been understood. Far more people in this country play rugby (of both codes) than box, yet even with that huge potential sample, we haven't seen any obvious notable epidemic of such long-term effects. I guess that's why it's lawyers pushing this, rather than doctors at this stage.

I also agree that in this country, if it's going to emerge, I'd expect football to see it happen more. I'd rather tackle prop forwards 40 times in a game, than head a long cross once !

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Wed Apr 29, 2015 10:24 am  

Roy Haggerty wrote:

I think this is why I'm not unduly panicking about the end of contact sports. The impact of boxing on the brain has long been understood. Far more people in this country play rugby (of both codes) than box, yet even with that huge potential sample, we haven't seen any obvious notable epidemic of such long-term effects. I guess that's why it's lawyers pushing this, rather than doctors at this stage.

I also agree that in this country, if it's going to emerge, I'd expect football to see it happen more. I'd rather tackle prop forwards 40 times in a game, than head a long cross once !

I think there have been studies into football which yielded some worrying results. But it's very hard to conduct the type of definitive research because the money just isn't there. Not to mention the political and peer pressure.

I didn't think it would get as far as it has with Gridiron. Unfortunately the nature of American society inevitably saw terms such as "ex-professional football player", "depression" and "gun-owner" and voila!

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:36 pm  

Shontayne Hape's case is anecdotal evidence, in the modern era. I expect he's at the tip of the iceberg. With this kind of injury, you're stuck with observational studies for ethical reasons, as much as anything else ("Come 'ere, son - we're going to coat your twin in bubble wrap, then whack you in the head every couple of days for 20 years" may not get you past the ethics board). But, as you say, we know plenty about the cause-and-effect relationships between repeated blows to the head/whiplash/concussion, and the subsequent cognitive difficulties and brain damage. An expensive study isn't really necessary for that. People engage in all manner of risky activities, and sometimes the risk profile is well-understood. I don't think it's a stretch to imagine that more total collisions, more frequent collisions, and more energetic collisions might raise the overall risk of repeated small brain injuries that could lead to lasting damage. That could implicate not only collisions in a competitive match, but also collisions during training. As the intensity of training - as well as of competitive matches - has ramped up with professionalism, has the overall risk for a player also increased? Do we understand that risk profile in RL? I don't know. But, with the GPS data that clubs are collecting routinely during training, it may be possible to relate results of cognitive tests (as a proxy for brain damage) to historical data regarding collision frequency and intensity - at least, for some professional players. It'd be observational and a bit messy, but maybe it might have enough power to detect an effect? A study like that might already be going on, for all I know.

Shontayne Hape's case is anecdotal evidence, in the modern era. I expect he's at the tip of the iceberg. With this kind of injury, you're stuck with observational studies for ethical reasons, as much as anything else ("Come 'ere, son - we're going to coat your twin in bubble wrap, then whack you in the head every couple of days for 20 years" may not get you past the ethics board). But, as you say, we know plenty about the cause-and-effect relationships between repeated blows to the head/whiplash/concussion, and the subsequent cognitive difficulties and brain damage. An expensive study isn't really necessary for that. People engage in all manner of risky activities, and sometimes the risk profile is well-understood. I don't think it's a stretch to imagine that more total collisions, more frequent collisions, and more energetic collisions might raise the overall risk of repeated small brain injuries that could lead to lasting damage. That could implicate not only collisions in a competitive match, but also collisions during training. As the intensity of training - as well as of competitive matches - has ramped up with professionalism, has the overall risk for a player also increased? Do we understand that risk profile in RL? I don't know. But, with the GPS data that clubs are collecting routinely during training, it may be possible to relate results of cognitive tests (as a proxy for brain damage) to historical data regarding collision frequency and intensity - at least, for some professional players. It'd be observational and a bit messy, but maybe it might have enough power to detect an effect? A study like that might already be going on, for all I know.

Re: So when does this nuke drop in RL? : Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:47 pm  

The problem is for any kind of study you need access to raw data. Unfortunately, much of it is tied up with the sport. And they aren't likely to be too co-operative with any study which the end results of mean potentially serious and expensive upheaval.

Gridiron lucked out with players donating their brains for further research. Outside it's the chicken-and-egg situation - no one is likely to donate his brain to a non-existent issue. But without the studies it's difficult to know there is an issue.