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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:16 pm  
Bullseye wrote:
No border checks also means no checks on who is driving over the border as well as what's in the back of the truck/van/car.


Indeed.
Some of the really clever ones on here haven't thought this one through very well, a bit like Cameron when he agreed to the referendum. :oops:
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:58 pm  
Bullseye wrote:
Hmm I hope you're right. Similar IT used on other borders like the Swiss border doesn't have anywhere near the same amount of traffic and crossing points and those countries are within the customs union IIRC. We aren't. Unless the Irish and EU are persuaded it will work then it's no go. Then what? You can't just fudge this stuff.

Also many farms straddle the border in N Ireland. Will their livestock be fitted with devices to record when they cross ;-)

I also have experience of IT "solutions" that are rushed in. They never work.

Any kind of border that involves any physical checks whatsoever won't be acceptable.


Electronic clearing software is freely available and used all over the world - this is standard stuff. How do London manage the congestion charge? We are talking about Ireland with a combined population of 7m - less than London hardly downtown Mexico City.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:52 pm  
Sal Paradise wrote:
Electronic clearing software is freely available and used all over the world - this is standard stuff. How do London manage the congestion charge? We are talking about Ireland with a combined population of 7m - less than London hardly downtown Mexico City.


Eire could become the gateway to the UK or, N.Ireland a gateway to The EU, depending on your preferences.
Back in the day, the level of avoidance/smuggling between the north and south was huge in the border towns and post Brexit, the scope could be somewhat wider.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:27 pm  
wrencat1873 wrote:
Eire could become the gateway to the UK or, N.Ireland a gateway to The EU, depending on your preferences.
Back in the day, the level of avoidance/smuggling between the north and south was huge in the border towns and post Brexit, the scope could be somewhat wider.


Depends on your view of huge and it is an island that has a relcatively small population. So there are limits of what can be smuggled out without detection.

Compare the lost revenues of this to the inability to collect corporation tax and its tiny - Apple's bill is 13bn that a lot of trucks across one border
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:42 pm  
wrencat1873 wrote:
So, as we are now "definitely" leaving the customs union, will there be the new free trade area that Mrs May has been dreaming about or is it just that, a dream, similar to the friction-less border between the 2 halves of Ireland ?

We've always been leaving the customs union, as has been stated god knows how many times. We'll either end up in a bespoke customs union and/or trade deal (most likely) or walk away on WTO terms (unlikely). Remember, anything that sees the UK on harsh terms also damages the EU economy and countless businesses in EU nations, something EU leaders will not be keen on.

The reasons for leaving are clear: we can't be in the EU CU without adhering to key EU laws, which is precisely what we voted against. It also restricts our ability to sign trade deals with non-EU nations. Furthermore, remaining in the CU would be absolute political suicide for the Tories. Not going to happen.

As I mentioned, it's all bluster. Politicians who can't accept Brexit, or who are raising their profile at Westminster. These 'meaningful' votes will amount to nothing in the grand scheme of things. For example, the customs union vote that went through the Lords recently - it was advisory and May rightly dismissed it out of hand in no time.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:43 pm  
wrencat1873 wrote:
Eire could become the gateway to the UK or, N.Ireland a gateway to The EU, depending on your preferences.
Back in the day, the level of avoidance/smuggling between the north and south was huge in the border towns and post Brexit, the scope could be somewhat wider.

Knock yerself out: https://capx.co/how-to-fix-the-irish-border-problem/
wrencat1873 wrote:
Eire could become the gateway to the UK or, N.Ireland a gateway to The EU, depending on your preferences.
Back in the day, the level of avoidance/smuggling between the north and south was huge in the border towns and post Brexit, the scope could be somewhat wider.

Knock yerself out: https://capx.co/how-to-fix-the-irish-border-problem/
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:23 am  
Cronus wrote:
We've always been leaving the customs union, as has been stated god knows how many times. We'll either end up in a bespoke customs union and/or trade deal (most likely) or walk away on WTO terms (unlikely). Remember, anything that sees the UK on harsh terms also damages the EU economy and countless businesses in EU nations, something EU leaders will not be keen on.


Still clinging to the ridiculous notion it hurts them as well as us so 27 other countries will cave in are we?


The reasons for leaving are clear: we can't be in the EU CU without adhering to key EU laws, which is precisely what we voted against. It also restricts our ability to sign trade deals with non-EU nations. Furthermore, remaining in the CU would be absolute political suicide for the Tories. Not going to happen.


A hard brexit will be political suicide for the Tories as well. You seem to be confused between laws and regulations. We will have to adhere to agree to regulations if we want to trade with them post Brexit anyway. They will not accept anything from us that does not comply with their regulations be it bacon or cars. Get used to the EU dictating what we can do without us having a say in those self same rules. It's what you voted for.

If we have a trade deal there will need to be aribritation to handle disputes. The EU might agree it is not the ECJ but even if they do, we don't get to dictate the rules.

As to remaining in the customs union restricting our ability to conclude trade deals with other countries you are dead right. It does. What you can't see though is that the world doesn't owe the UK any favours. When we will seek a trade deal with the USA, India or China when they say jump, we will ask "how high". As part of the EU we can annoy Trump and NOT accept all the rubbish they want to send us such as chlorinated chicken of GM modified foodstuffs. Outside the EU that will be the price of a trade deal and once we accept the rubbish other countries will insist on selling us we immediately exclude ourselves from the EU market.

The problem you quitters have is you think a) the EU stance is all a bluff which it is not and b) there as a world of trade out there we can tap into which there isn't, because the rest of the world already buys exactly what it wants from us now. There are no vast new markets we are primed to exploit.

This is by the way ignoring the obvious practical problems that if a customs union ceases to exist post brexit manufacturing industry will grind to a halt. And the politics of Northern Ireland.

Brexit is a complete mess and it really is not going to work out well.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:24 am  


An interesting read.
And for the flipside
http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/irish-border-oxymoron/

As with all these issues, it depends who you choose to believe and as I mentioned in an earlier post,if this is so simple to solve, "we" would have moved on to other trade issues by now.


An interesting read.
And for the flipside
http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/irish-border-oxymoron/

As with all these issues, it depends who you choose to believe and as I mentioned in an earlier post,if this is so simple to solve, "we" would have moved on to other trade issues by now.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:51 am  
DaveO wrote:
Still clinging to the ridiculous notion it hurts them as well as us so 27 other countries will cave in are we?

Cave in? Why does anyone need to 'cave in'. Neither side wants a damaging solution and while I've stated repeatedly we're unlikely to see exactly the same conditions as we have now within the EU, I doubt there will be punitive conditions in place.

And frankly I have no problem with taking a hit to extricate ourselves from the EU.

A hard brexit will be political suicide for the Tories as well. You seem to be confused between laws and regulations. We will have to adhere to agree to regulations if we want to trade with them post Brexit anyway. They will not accept anything from us that does not comply with their regulations be it bacon or cars. Get used to the EU dictating what we can do without us having a say in those self same rules. It's what you voted for.

You mean the regulations we already meet, and in many cases, exceed? Why would this be a problem? Most of those regulations are perfectly reasonable.

Hard...soft...both irrelevant terms and entirely subjective. Brexit will be what Brexit is.

BTW, EU regulations are still EU law - 'secondary legislation', no less. No confusion here.

If we have a trade deal there will need to be aribritation to handle disputes. The EU might agree it is not the ECJ but even if they do, we don't get to dictate the rules.

Shocking...legal bodies are required to handle arbitration? Again, I see no problem with this. Of course we won't get to dictate the rules, but neither will the EU. That's not generally how disputes or negotiations are handled. Existing EU law is being enshrined in UK law as I'm sure you're aware, thus maintaining parity. If in the future we choose to duplicate a new EU law it'll be because it's in our best interests, not because the EU has demanded it.

As to remaining in the customs union restricting our ability to conclude trade deals with other countries you are dead right. It does. What you can't see though is that the world doesn't owe the UK any favours. When we will seek a trade deal with the USA, India or China when they say jump, we will ask "how high". As part of the EU we can annoy Trump and NOT accept all the rubbish they want to send us such as chlorinated chicken of GM modified foodstuffs. Outside the EU that will be the price of a trade deal and once we accept the rubbish other countries will insist on selling us we immediately exclude ourselves from the EU market.

Agreeing trade deals doesn't hinge on anyone 'owing favours'. What an utterly ridiculous notion. It generally comes down to a proposition, mutual benefit and agreement. You're making a lot of assumptions here, one of which is that we can't possible stand up for ourselves in negotiations. Another is that emotion plays a key part of trade negotiations. My, how does the rest of the world survive outside the EU?

The problem you quitters have is you think a) the EU stance is all a bluff which it is not and b) there as a world of trade out there we can tap into which there isn't, because the rest of the world already buys exactly what it wants from us now. There are no vast new markets we are primed to exploit.

The problem blinkered (and apparently drunk) Remoaners have is sweeping generalisations. I'm sure you're aware the EU Customs Union acts as a barrier to outside goods and services and indeed trade deals, which will open up. And meanwhile trade with the EU will continue.

Dave's idea of Brexit negotiations:
Barnier: You don't frighten us, English pig-dogs! Go and boil your bottoms, sons of a silly person. I blow my nose at you, so-called Prime Minister, you and all your silly English kaniggets. Thppppt!
May: What a strange person.
Davis: Now look here, my good man!
Barnier: I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty headed animal food trough whopper! I fart in your general direction! You mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

This is by the way ignoring the obvious practical problems that if a customs union ceases to exist post brexit manufacturing industry will grind to a halt. And the politics of Northern Ireland.

The idea that everything will grind to a halt is another ridiculous notion. Sure, some sectors and businesses will need to adapt, just as they do after every boom & bust.

Brexit is a complete mess and it really is not going to work out well.

And that, Dave, is why you shouldn't post when drunk. Also why you shouldn't buy every line coming out of Brussels and the leftist press.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:35 am  
Most of the Labour Party and a group of tories want to stay in the customs union. The EU have made it quite clear that the rules of the EU state that you can’t arrange free trade on your own behalf, if you are in this union. So if we arrive at this situation it will mean we haven’t left the EU. Sadly the chattering metropolitan elite know this, so it’s quite obviously a ploy to scupper the democratic vote. Ironically the unelected House of Lords is behind all this. The Irish border issue is being used by the EU as a weapon to disrupt negotiations. The majority of trade between Eire and the UK does not go through Northern Ireland. Border movements can easily be controlled by vehicle number recognition cameras. When I fly from Manchester airport, I pay before and the barriers system recognises my plate and let’s me in. If Teresa may had any courage she should tell all the parties concerned we won’t erect any hard border posts. If you want to put up border posts it’s up to you. I note that we purchase large quantities of beef from Eire. If Eire makes things difficult I am quite certain we can buy from other sources. The situation remains the same a democratic vote took place and one side won and the other lost. Although you would think that never happened, if you listened to Blair,Adonis, Campbell etc etc.
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