FORUMS FORUMS






RLFANS.COM
Celebrating
25 years service to
the Rugby League
Community!

   WWW.RLFANS.COM • View topic - Universal benefits vs Means-testing
::Off-topic discussion.
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Club Coach16271
JoinedServiceReputation
Oct 12 200420 years71st
OnlineLast PostLast Page
23rd Nov 24 21:1723rd Nov 24 19:55LINK
Milestone Posts
15000
20000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Signature
Challenge Cup winners 2009 2010 2012 2019
League Leaders 2011 2016

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:59 pm  
Sal Paradise wrote:
To just take the data and suggest that is the definitive answer is far too simplistic. The mix of private to public sector is different, the role of unions is very different, the idea the Labour was going into a period of sustained growth in 2009 is simply not believable


Thats a bit of waffling to try and create the impression that "you're wrong, I'm right because I understand these extra factors that I'm going to allude to without giving an explanation".
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Club Coach16271
JoinedServiceReputation
Oct 12 200420 years71st
OnlineLast PostLast Page
23rd Nov 24 21:1723rd Nov 24 19:55LINK
Milestone Posts
15000
20000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Signature
Challenge Cup winners 2009 2010 2012 2019
League Leaders 2011 2016

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Sun Jan 13, 2013 3:01 pm  
JerryChicken wrote:
In very simplistic terms though do you think that had the "austerity cuts" of 2010 not been as deep, and had not promised much deeper cuts in future years, that the ground made in 2009 could at least have been maintained rather than slipping backwards ?


The cuts shouldn't have had anything to do with it. The Chancellor delivered a 'budget for growth' which was going to cut excessive red tape and allow the private sector to grow. The private sector would have also been able to pick up all the extra resources (labour and capital) released by the cuts in the public sector. And as the government is proud of saying, the number of jobs created in the private sector has exceeded the number of jobs lost in the public sector.

So lets not have the government hiding behind the left wing myth that the poor economic performance was due to them having to cut government. Surely small government is better for the economy than big government.
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
International Chairman18060No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 27 200223 years316th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
11th Jun 23 20:4411th Jun 23 20:53LINK
Milestone Posts
15000
20000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
On the road
Signature
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Sun Jan 13, 2013 5:44 pm  
sally cinnamon wrote:
Thats a bit of waffling to try and create the impression that "you're wrong, I'm right because I understand these extra factors that I'm going to allude to without giving an explanation".


Do you honestly believe that under Labour the country was going to see a growth spurt from 2009? Especially as they had said they would also have to reduce public spending?
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Club Coach16271
JoinedServiceReputation
Oct 12 200420 years71st
OnlineLast PostLast Page
23rd Nov 24 21:1723rd Nov 24 19:55LINK
Milestone Posts
15000
20000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Signature
Challenge Cup winners 2009 2010 2012 2019
League Leaders 2011 2016

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:57 pm  
Not a spurt. I think we could have avoided a double dip recession and had growth of around 2% like we did in the first year post-recession leading up to the election. I think had it been a Lab-Lib coalition, with an economic policy headed by Alastair Darling and Vince Cable, we could have made better progress.
RankPostsTeam
International Star58No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Aug 15 201212 yearsN/A
OnlineLast PostLast Page
25th Jan 14 23:0625th Jan 14 22:30LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:52 am  
Sal Paradise wrote:
Do you honestly believe that under Labour the country was going to see a growth spurt from 2009? Especially as they had said they would also have to reduce public spending?

Unless you (or the government) wants to claim either a) the Torys weren't planning larger spending cuts than Labour, or b) that the fiscal multiplier in the UK is currently less than 0 (The Conservatives own calculations had it at around 0.5) then it is inescapable that growth would've been higher under Labour than the Conservatives. The only issue is how much higher would it have been.

Using the targets set out in Darling and Osborne's 2010 budgets (I assume steady pace of deficit reduction - both were ever so slightly back loaded), I calculate that in the 4 fiscal years from 2010/2011 - 2013/2014 the Tory were going to make cumulative net cuts (relative to Darling's plan) of 6.4% of (April 2010) GDP.

According to Oliver Blanchard (chief economist to the IMF, here) a 1% cut in public spending (in developed economies since 2010) directly leads to about a 1% drop in GDP. Therefore the Conservatives extra 6.4% of cuts would result in lower economic growth of about 1.6% for each of these four years. It thus seems reasonable to assume that instead of the Conservatives' slightly better than flat growth, we would be having around 2% growth under Labour.

ps. This only adjusts growth cuts under the Conservatives, for the extra growth due to Labour 'stimulus' (i.e. not as many cuts), so don't say it doesn't take into account things such as the Eurozone crisis and the slower than Darling expected global recovery, because it already does.
Sal Paradise wrote:
Do you honestly believe that under Labour the country was going to see a growth spurt from 2009? Especially as they had said they would also have to reduce public spending?

Unless you (or the government) wants to claim either a) the Torys weren't planning larger spending cuts than Labour, or b) that the fiscal multiplier in the UK is currently less than 0 (The Conservatives own calculations had it at around 0.5) then it is inescapable that growth would've been higher under Labour than the Conservatives. The only issue is how much higher would it have been.

Using the targets set out in Darling and Osborne's 2010 budgets (I assume steady pace of deficit reduction - both were ever so slightly back loaded), I calculate that in the 4 fiscal years from 2010/2011 - 2013/2014 the Tory were going to make cumulative net cuts (relative to Darling's plan) of 6.4% of (April 2010) GDP.

According to Oliver Blanchard (chief economist to the IMF, here) a 1% cut in public spending (in developed economies since 2010) directly leads to about a 1% drop in GDP. Therefore the Conservatives extra 6.4% of cuts would result in lower economic growth of about 1.6% for each of these four years. It thus seems reasonable to assume that instead of the Conservatives' slightly better than flat growth, we would be having around 2% growth under Labour.

ps. This only adjusts growth cuts under the Conservatives, for the extra growth due to Labour 'stimulus' (i.e. not as many cuts), so don't say it doesn't take into account things such as the Eurozone crisis and the slower than Darling expected global recovery, because it already does.
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
International Star3605No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Jul 09 201212 yearsN/A
OnlineLast PostLast Page
20th May 16 14:5420th May 16 10:16LINK
Milestone Posts
2500
5000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Leeds
Signature
Someday everything is gonna be different, when I paint my masterpiece
----------------------------------------------------------
Online art gallery, selling original landscape artwork
----------------------------------------------------------
JerryChicken - The Blog
----------------------------------------------------------

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:21 am  
Cookridge_Rhino wrote:
Unless you (or the government) wants to claim either a) the Torys weren't planning larger spending cuts than Labour, or b) that the fiscal multiplier in the UK is currently less than 0 (The Conservatives own calculations had it at around 0.5) then it is inescapable that growth would've been higher under Labour than the Conservatives. The only issue is how much higher would it have been.

Using the targets set out in Darling and Osborne's 2010 budgets (I assume steady pace of deficit reduction - both were ever so slightly back loaded), I calculate that in the 4 fiscal years from 2010/2011 - 2013/2014 the Tory were going to make cumulative net cuts (relative to Darling's plan) of 6.4% of (April 2010) GDP.

According to Oliver Blanchard (chief economist to the IMF, here) a 1% cut in public spending (in developed economies since 2010) directly leads to about a 1% drop in GDP. Therefore the Conservatives extra 6.4% of cuts would result in lower economic growth of about 1.6% for each of these four years. It thus seems reasonable to assume that instead of the Conservatives' slightly better than flat growth, we would be having around 2% growth under Labour.

ps. This only adjusts growth cuts under the Conservatives, for the extra growth due to Labour 'stimulus' (i.e. not as many cuts), so don't say it doesn't take into account things such as the Eurozone crisis and the slower than Darling expected global recovery, because it already does.


...and presumably Osborne is aware of all this ?

...and continuing with the presumptions he is now either stuck on a runaway train, has no plan b, or is cutting budgets as a deliberate political exercise with no care to the outcome ?
Cookridge_Rhino wrote:
Unless you (or the government) wants to claim either a) the Torys weren't planning larger spending cuts than Labour, or b) that the fiscal multiplier in the UK is currently less than 0 (The Conservatives own calculations had it at around 0.5) then it is inescapable that growth would've been higher under Labour than the Conservatives. The only issue is how much higher would it have been.

Using the targets set out in Darling and Osborne's 2010 budgets (I assume steady pace of deficit reduction - both were ever so slightly back loaded), I calculate that in the 4 fiscal years from 2010/2011 - 2013/2014 the Tory were going to make cumulative net cuts (relative to Darling's plan) of 6.4% of (April 2010) GDP.

According to Oliver Blanchard (chief economist to the IMF, here) a 1% cut in public spending (in developed economies since 2010) directly leads to about a 1% drop in GDP. Therefore the Conservatives extra 6.4% of cuts would result in lower economic growth of about 1.6% for each of these four years. It thus seems reasonable to assume that instead of the Conservatives' slightly better than flat growth, we would be having around 2% growth under Labour.

ps. This only adjusts growth cuts under the Conservatives, for the extra growth due to Labour 'stimulus' (i.e. not as many cuts), so don't say it doesn't take into account things such as the Eurozone crisis and the slower than Darling expected global recovery, because it already does.


...and presumably Osborne is aware of all this ?

...and continuing with the presumptions he is now either stuck on a runaway train, has no plan b, or is cutting budgets as a deliberate political exercise with no care to the outcome ?
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Club Coach16271
JoinedServiceReputation
Oct 12 200420 years71st
OnlineLast PostLast Page
23rd Nov 24 21:1723rd Nov 24 19:55LINK
Milestone Posts
15000
20000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Signature
Challenge Cup winners 2009 2010 2012 2019
League Leaders 2011 2016

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:04 am  
JerryChicken wrote:
...and continuing with the presumptions he is now either stuck on a runaway train, has no plan b, or is cutting budgets as a deliberate political exercise with no care to the outcome ?


Osborne has no plan b. His plan is to use the failure of plan a, to claim there is no alternative.

Whenever he is confronted with evidence of economic failure he says "that shows it is even more important that we aren't diverted from the path".

Watch for this line to come out when the UK loses its AAA credit rating, that Osborne clings on to as evidence of his great performance at making the markets have 'credibility' in his plan.
RankPostsTeam
International Star58No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Aug 15 201212 yearsN/A
OnlineLast PostLast Page
25th Jan 14 23:0625th Jan 14 22:30LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:23 pm  
JerryChicken wrote:
...and presumably Osborne is aware of all this ?

...and continuing with the presumptions he is now either stuck on a runaway train, has no plan b, or is cutting budgets as a deliberate political exercise with no care to the outcome ?

I would like to think the Chancellor and his team spend more time reading about the consequences of deficit reduction than I do, so I would hope so.

I think that the Tories have invested way too much political capital in deficit reduction. If they were to be honest and say: 'We - like the IMF and other respected bodies, hugely underestimated the negative effects of deficit reduction during this period of economic trouble. If we had not cut so far so fast, we wouldn't have entered into a double dip recession (which has lead us to borrow even more than in Alastair Darling's plan). We're going to go for plan B' they would be absolutely wiped out at the next election.

I don't think political expediency is the only reason though. The Conservatives like to cut the state whenever they can. I think they would've made cuts for ideological reasons anyway, the recession has only gave them a good excuse to go further than they otherwise would've been able to get away with.
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
All Time Great47951No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
May 10 200223 yearsN/A
OnlineLast PostLast Page
6th Aug 17 19:0327th Jul 17 17:56LINK
Milestone Posts
40000
50000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Die Metropole
Signature
"You are working for Satan." Kirkstaller

"Dare to know!" Immanuel Kant

"Do not take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive" Elbert Hubbard

"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars." Oscar Wilde

The Voluptuous Manifesto – thoughts on all sorts of stuff.

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:28 pm  
One new pension for everyone – no means-tested add-ons.

Interesting to see that the government now believes in universal benefits.
One new pension for everyone – no means-tested add-ons.

Interesting to see that the government now believes in universal benefits.
DaveO 
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Moderator14395No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 22 200123 years328th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
4th May 24 14:0028th May 22 23:44LINK
Milestone Posts
10000
15000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Chester
Signature
Last league derby at Central Park 5/9/1999: Wigan 28 St. Helens 20
Last league derby at Knowsley Road 2/4/2010: St. Helens 10 Wigan 18
Moderator

Re: Universal benefits vs Means-testing : Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:41 pm  
Mintball wrote:
One new pension for everyone – no means-tested add-ons.

Interesting to see that the government now believes in universal benefits.


And in principle this is a good idea.

However it's tied to an increase n the pension age to (eventually) 68 and having to pay NI for 35 years instead of 30.

I think having to work in manual jobs until you are 68 is going to result in a sufficient cull of the population to make it affordable!

Also not sure how IDS sells it as good for women who take time off for child care because your national insurance is credited for time off looking after kids up to the age of 12.

I also wouldn't trust IDS as far as I could throw him so there is bound to be some small print somewhere that results in more people losing out than predicted. The devil will be in the detail in this one.
Mintball wrote:
One new pension for everyone – no means-tested add-ons.

Interesting to see that the government now believes in universal benefits.


And in principle this is a good idea.

However it's tied to an increase n the pension age to (eventually) 68 and having to pay NI for 35 years instead of 30.

I think having to work in manual jobs until you are 68 is going to result in a sufficient cull of the population to make it affordable!

Also not sure how IDS sells it as good for women who take time off for child care because your national insurance is credited for time off looking after kids up to the age of 12.

I also wouldn't trust IDS as far as I could throw him so there is bound to be some small print somewhere that results in more people losing out than predicted. The devil will be in the detail in this one.
PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 194 guests

REPLY

Subject: 
Message:
   
Please note using apple style emoji's can result in posting failures.
Use the FULL EDITOR to better format content or upload images, be notified of replies etc...

Return to The Sin Bin


RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
0m
All time academy produced Super league era side
rollin thund
5
5m
Doug Laughton
rollin thund
12
21m
Shirt reveal coming soon
Wollo-Wollo-
75
34m
Transfer chatter for 2025 - New Dec 1st tamper date
Dave K.
34
41m
Squad numbers 2025
18th Man
47
44m
New Players
Deadcowboys1
156
59m
Accounts
Bubba
200
Recent
Film game
Boss Hog
6099
Recent
BORED The Band Name Game
Boss Hog
63340
Recent
Game - Song Titles
Boss Hog
40874
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
1m
IMG scores
Shifty Cat
292
2m
Film game
Boss Hog
6099
2m
Recruitment rumours and links
Velcro Boots
3567
2m
Spirit of the Rhinos
exiledrhino
15
2m
Fixtures 2025
ChinaBull
11
2m
BORED The Band Name Game
Boss Hog
63340
2m
New signings
Murphy
16
3m
Game - Song Titles
Boss Hog
40874
6m
Shareholder/Fans Forum
Wollo-Wollo-
2
16m
New Players
Deadcowboys1
156
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
Shareholder/Fans Forum
Wollo-Wollo-
2
TODAY
Elliot Michella extends contract
Huddersfield
1
TODAY
Christmas Party Night B Vue tonight cancelled
Dunkirk Spir
3
TODAY
Doug Laughton
rollin thund
12
TODAY
Sports Personality of the Year
Wires71
13
TODAY
Forget-me-not Childrens hospice
H.G.S.A
1
TODAY
All time academy produced Super league era side
rollin thund
5
TODAY
Wigan warriors 2022 away shirt
WWste
4
TODAY
Captains Challenge for Televised Games in 2025
Huddersfield
5
TODAY
Captains Challenge to be introduced in 2025
Zig
8
TODAY
Rule Changes
Rugby Raider
5
TODAY
Player Contracts
Trojan Horse
6
TODAY
Fans Forum 12 Dec 11th
Dunkirk Spir
3
TODAY
Laurie Daley returns as NSW origin coach
Huddersfield
1
TODAY
2025 Challenge Cup
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Challenge Cup
BigTime
6
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
Captains Challenge for Televis..
268
England Women Las Vegas train-..
428
Opening Championship and Leagu..
600
2025 Betfred Super League Fixt..
1619
Magic Weekend 2025 - Back To N..
983
England Beat Samoa To Take Tes..
1660
England's Women Demolish The W..
1525
England Beat Samoa Comfortably..
1741
Operational Rules Tribunal â..
1478
IMG-RFL club gradings released..
1711
Wakefield Trinity Win Champion..
2259
Hunslet Secure Promotion After..
2467
Trinity Into Play Off Final Af..
2707
Wigan Warriors Crowned Champio..
2260
York Valkyrie Win Back to Back..
2501
RLFANS Match Centre
Matches on TV
Thu 13th Feb
SL
20:00
Wigan-Leigh
Fri 14th Feb
SL
20:00
Hull KR-Castleford
SL
20:00
Catalans-Hull FC
Sat 15th Feb
SL
15:00
Leeds - Wakefield
SL
17:30
St.Helens-Salford
Sun 16th Feb
SL
15:00
Huddersfield-Warrington
Thu 20th Feb
SL
20:00
Wakefield - Hull KR
Fri 21st Feb
SL
20:00
Warrington-Catalans
SL
20:00
Hull FC-Wigan
Sat 22nd Feb
SL
15:00
Salford-Leeds
SL
20:00
Castleford-St.Helens
Sun 23rd Feb
SL
14:30
Leigh-Huddersfield
Fri 28th Feb
SL
20:00
Huddersfield-Hull FC
SL
20:00
Hull KR-Salford
SL
20:00
Leigh-Catalans
Sat 1st Mar
SL
14:30
Wakefield - St.Helens
SL
21:30
Wigan-Warrington
Sun 2nd Mar
SL
15:00
Leeds-Castleford
Thu 6th Mar
SL
20:00
Hull FC-Leigh
Fri 7th Mar
SL
20:00
Castleford-Salford
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Mens Betfred Super League XXVIII ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wigan 29 768 338 430 48
Hull KR 29 731 344 387 44
Warrington 29 769 351 418 42
Leigh 29 580 442 138 33
Salford 28 556 561 -5 32
St.Helens 28 618 411 207 30
 
Catalans 27 475 427 48 30
Leeds 27 530 488 42 28
Huddersfield 27 468 658 -190 20
Castleford 27 425 735 -310 15
Hull FC 27 328 894 -566 6
LondonB 27 317 916 -599 6
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Betfred Championship 2024 ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wakefield 27 1032 275 757 52
Toulouse 26 765 388 377 37
Bradford 28 723 420 303 36
York 29 695 501 194 32
Widnes 27 561 502 59 29
Featherstone 27 634 525 109 28
 
Sheffield 26 626 526 100 28
Doncaster 26 498 619 -121 25
Halifax 26 509 650 -141 22
Batley 26 422 591 -169 22
Swinton 28 484 676 -192 20
Barrow 25 442 720 -278 19
Whitehaven 25 437 826 -389 18
Dewsbury 27 348 879 -531 4
Hunslet 1 6 10 -4 0
RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
0m
All time academy produced Super league era side
rollin thund
5
5m
Doug Laughton
rollin thund
12
21m
Shirt reveal coming soon
Wollo-Wollo-
75
34m
Transfer chatter for 2025 - New Dec 1st tamper date
Dave K.
34
41m
Squad numbers 2025
18th Man
47
44m
New Players
Deadcowboys1
156
59m
Accounts
Bubba
200
Recent
Film game
Boss Hog
6099
Recent
BORED The Band Name Game
Boss Hog
63340
Recent
Game - Song Titles
Boss Hog
40874
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
1m
IMG scores
Shifty Cat
292
2m
Film game
Boss Hog
6099
2m
Recruitment rumours and links
Velcro Boots
3567
2m
Spirit of the Rhinos
exiledrhino
15
2m
Fixtures 2025
ChinaBull
11
2m
BORED The Band Name Game
Boss Hog
63340
2m
New signings
Murphy
16
3m
Game - Song Titles
Boss Hog
40874
6m
Shareholder/Fans Forum
Wollo-Wollo-
2
16m
New Players
Deadcowboys1
156
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
Shareholder/Fans Forum
Wollo-Wollo-
2
TODAY
Elliot Michella extends contract
Huddersfield
1
TODAY
Christmas Party Night B Vue tonight cancelled
Dunkirk Spir
3
TODAY
Doug Laughton
rollin thund
12
TODAY
Sports Personality of the Year
Wires71
13
TODAY
Forget-me-not Childrens hospice
H.G.S.A
1
TODAY
All time academy produced Super league era side
rollin thund
5
TODAY
Wigan warriors 2022 away shirt
WWste
4
TODAY
Captains Challenge for Televised Games in 2025
Huddersfield
5
TODAY
Captains Challenge to be introduced in 2025
Zig
8
TODAY
Rule Changes
Rugby Raider
5
TODAY
Player Contracts
Trojan Horse
6
TODAY
Fans Forum 12 Dec 11th
Dunkirk Spir
3
TODAY
Laurie Daley returns as NSW origin coach
Huddersfield
1
TODAY
2025 Challenge Cup
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Challenge Cup
BigTime
6
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
Captains Challenge for Televis..
268
England Women Las Vegas train-..
428
Opening Championship and Leagu..
600
2025 Betfred Super League Fixt..
1619
Magic Weekend 2025 - Back To N..
983
England Beat Samoa To Take Tes..
1660
England's Women Demolish The W..
1525
England Beat Samoa Comfortably..
1741
Operational Rules Tribunal â..
1478
IMG-RFL club gradings released..
1711
Wakefield Trinity Win Champion..
2259
Hunslet Secure Promotion After..
2467
Trinity Into Play Off Final Af..
2707
Wigan Warriors Crowned Champio..
2260
York Valkyrie Win Back to Back..
2501


Visit the RLFANS.COM SHOP
for more merchandise!