Re: General Election campaign : Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:43 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

The loan scheme is actually a crazy idea.
The very thought of a business, that has run out of cash and taking on water, then borrowing to see them through an unspecified length of time, would be crazy.
Unless there was an end in sight to the virus problem, many businesses would be better placed to close their doors and liquidate and then perhaps start again when things return to normal.
If the virus issues were just going to be a few weeks then ,this would be different but, unfortunately, this thing isn't going to suddenly disappear, which will leave many businesses floating upside down It's scary, very scary.

The loan scheme would be good if the interest rates were below commercial levels e.g. 1-2% then it is almost free money - just to give 350bn to business would be crazy - all they will do is reduce headcount and reduce debt. There has to be conditions that if you access the monies headcounts have to be maintained first and foremost. Yes take measures around recruitment, overtime etc but businesses have to keep going or we will all be sunk.

The only way I get paid is if my customers can keep trading and generating cash - I understand about not mixing but life must continue - if you must isolate the elderly so be it but the rest of us need to continue life as normal - if we get it it will be life the flu which most of us have had in the past and survived.

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:49 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

The loan scheme would be good if the interest rates were below commercial levels e.g. 1-2% then it is almost free money - just to give 350bn to business would be crazy - all they will do is reduce headcount and reduce debt. There has to be conditions that if you access the monies headcounts have to be maintained first and foremost. Yes take measures around recruitment, overtime etc but businesses have to keep going or we will all be sunk.

The only way I get paid is if my customers can keep trading and generating cash - I understand about not mixing but life must continue - if you must isolate the elderly so be it but the rest of us need to continue life as normal - if we get it it will be life the flu which most of us have had in the past and survived.

It's not often that you and I agree but, you are absolutely right.
The vulnerable need protecting (isolating) along with their carers but, healthy under 50's need to keep working, spending and carrying on and on this issue, I believe that the government's strategy is wrong.
The most worrying aspect with the current guidelines on isolation etc is that there is no exit strategy and just as soon as movement and social gatherings is allowed to increase, we could well end up back to square one.

Re: General Election campaign : Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:11 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

It's not often that you and I agree but, you are absolutely right.
The vulnerable need protecting (isolating) along with their carers but, healthy under 50's need to keep working, spending and carrying on and on this issue, I believe that the government's strategy is wrong.
The most worrying aspect with the current guidelines on isolation etc is that there is no exit strategy and just as soon as movement and social gatherings is allowed to increase, we could well end up back to square one.

likewise myself with you.. I have read a number of articles pondering the idea that Covid-19 may be with us forever, it may be something we have to learn to live with.

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:33 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

It's not often that you and I agree but, you are absolutely right.
The vulnerable need protecting (isolating) along with their carers but, healthy under 50's need to keep working, spending and carrying on and on this issue, I believe that the government's strategy is wrong.
The most worrying aspect with the current guidelines on isolation etc is that there is no exit strategy and just as soon as movement and social gatherings is allowed to increase, we could well end up back to square one.

Actually, our strategy is designed precisely to help prevent that. Anyone claiming 'Boris has cocked it up' isn't paying attention. For a start, Boris hasn't planned the strategy, experts in this field have.

Singapore, Taiwan and others - including China - have done a wonderful job of locking down and preventing the spread. That's great, well done, but exactly as you say - when thing start moving again and some bugger pops up with CV19 - they're back to square one. This is a novel virus, therefore our immune systems simply have nothing to work with until a vaccine is out there, unlike the common flu or the common cold which is familiar to our systems at a genetic level.

The UK's strategy is bold, and herd immunity plays a big part. Patrick Vallance has confirmed this in a number of interviews but the problem is our society and certainly our media cannot handle the fact some people will die who may have otherwise survived.

We are allowing the virus to spread to a certain point, monitoring the numbers and gradually tightening restrictions to manage the spread. This serves two purposes: to 'flatten the curve' and minimise the peak impact to the NHS at any single time, but also to allow the virus to penetrate to a reasonable degree. The journalists who claim measures have tightened due to 'pressure' or 'mistakes' haven't been paying attention or are politically motivated. It's part of a staged strategy and a total lockdown is next. This has been made clear several times and at press conferences: timing is everything.

If we allowed the working-age population to carry on as normal the NHS would be massively overwhelmed this time next week and death rates would surge. Remember it's not just the elderly, it's people with compromised immune systems, it's diabetics, it's those on immunosuppressants - there are many at high risk. There are also many serious and some fatal cases with no previous ailments, although at a lower rate.

It's estimated up to 60%+ of the population could become infected. Of those, probably 99ish% will survive. But 1-2% of 60%/40 million is still huge at 400-800,000 deaths. Some may have died anyway being mostly the elderly and with pre-existing conditions, but that's still a big number. Of the survivors, some will still require ICU hospital treatment and suffer terribly, some will never truly recover due to lung damage.

Now here's the key point. Let's say in 3 months we emerge into the sunlight. 40-60% have had it and are now immune, and new cases have disappeared. Then a few people fly in with CV19. Right now the R0 of CV19 is between 2-4 which leads to a rapid and escalating spread as we are seeing, but if we have around 60% of the population already immune the R0 becomes 1 or less. No rapid spread, no overwhelming pressure on the NHS. THAT is why we didn't lock down immediately, and why our strategy - although it requires short-term pain - is better in the long run.

Oh, and STAY AT HOME. I'm on day 8 of isolation. It ain't so bad.

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:19 pm  

The government have done nothing but to put out confused instructions and when they do they have no thought out the impact. I note that we appear to be reactive rather than proactive, that is why we have not done enough testing, provided enough respirators, let alone safety clothing.
I am sorry but keep saying they are trying to save the NHS appears a little hollow when for the last ten years he was part of the government trying to destroy it. I note that the list of so called vital employees include many that were previously expendable.
I also note that we do not want to be part of the EU purchasing group which has agreed deals for various supplies because we would rather stand on our own two feet and be outbid by much larger economies with greater buying power.
I have one last point how much of our current food supplies come from the EU because if this had happen next year we would have left. We have already said there would be food shortages so how bad would it have been with a pandemic.

Re: General Election campaign : Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:34 am  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

I have one last point how much of our current food supplies come from the EU because if this had happen next year we would have left. We have already said there would be food shortages so how bad would it have been with a pandemic.

This is a definite concern, even if the virus is over by then. Currently there aren't any interruptions to the food supply, the only reason the shelves are empty is because peoples buying habits have changed. After the transition period is over, there will be interruptions to the food supply. The large retailers have been warning about this but they were dismissed as Remoaners/Project Fear.

I think the supermarket situation now is a prelude to what we may see for the early months of 2021 and even when things adjust and settle down, we will be in a new era of a more limited range, higher prices and a lot of things being difficult to source consistently. The difference is the current shortages are more focused on non-perishables. The biggest hits to supply after the end of the transition period will be on perishables: fresh fruit and veg, meat and dairy.

Of course the government will give the line "we have robust food supply lines" before it happens and afterwards they won't want it to be associated with Brexit so will probably blame it on difficulties following the long-run impacts of the virus.

Re: General Election campaign : Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:35 am  

sally cinnamon wrote:

This is a definite concern, even if the virus is over by then. Currently there aren't any interruptions to the food supply, the only reason the shelves are empty is because peoples buying habits have changed. After the transition period is over, there will be interruptions to the food supply. The large retailers have been warning about this but they were dismissed as Remoaners/Project Fear.

I think the supermarket situation now is a prelude to what we may see for the early months of 2021 and even when things adjust and settle down, we will be in a new era of a more limited range, higher prices and a lot of things being difficult to source consistently. The difference is the current shortages are more focused on non-perishables. The biggest hits to supply after the end of the transition period will be on perishables: fresh fruit and veg, meat and dairy.

Of course the government will give the line "we have robust food supply lines" before it happens and afterwards they won't want it to be associated with Brexit so will probably blame it on difficulties following the long-run impacts of the virus.

Start prepping your soil now, get your fruit and vegetables sown in the next few weeks, and invest in some barbed wire!

Re: General Election campaign : Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:00 am  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

I note that the list of so called vital employees include many that were previously expendable.

And funnily enough, it doesn't include hedge fund managers, city traders or corporate financiers.

Re: General Election campaign : Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:32 am  

King Street Cat wrote:

Start prepping your soil now, get your fruit and vegetables sown in the next few weeks, and invest in some barbed wire!

Would you boil or roast barbed wire?

Re: General Election campaign : Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:06 am  

WIZEB wrote:

Would you boil or roast barbed wire?

Stew it with some rhubarb and serve it with vanilla custard to take the edge off the sharpness.