Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 11:05 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

So are you suggesting no education in schools until a vaccine is developed - which could be several years?

There has to be a trade off - education vs increase in infection rates - you could have shifts starting at say 6AM and finishing at 6PM - the lunch break being the swop over. That way you reduce you numbers by half straight away. You then make better use of the facilities - again you reduce the numbers by half all of a sudden your 2,500 has become 625 - teachers are suppose to inspire our kids - its time they starting showing some initiative.

"You then make better use of the facilities" just sounds like throwing a suggestion into the air and seeing what comes down. You must have an idealistic view of state school facilities. A handful of our site's are new, modern, spacious designs. Most are a mish-mash of Victorian buildings, post war knock-ups, and recent add-ons.

Your 12 hour shift works well as a bullish forum post, but in reality it fails to get out of the starting blocks. Do teachers not have kids, too? Do parents not work alternating shifts? Who looks after the kids who are waiting to go to school in the afternoon, or who are finishing at lunchtime? How many extra bus services will be needed at different times of the day? There would be no set rota of staff and students. It would probably have to be done on a weekly, if not daily basis.

I understand kids need to get their education. My 3 year old should have started school in April, and she's completely out of her routine now, but it was it is.

And before you say it, I'm not being overprotective here. I was an only child, latchkey kid. I had my own house key at 8. I used to regularly be alone in the house for 3 hours waiting for my Mum or Dad to get home first, or in the Summer I'd be running off around golf courses and becks with my mates. I believe kids should be able to look after themselves at a certain age, but that's not the society we live in, I'm afraid. Too much blame/claim culture over the last couple of decades has seen normally rational people lose their minds over the slightest thing. Your 6am-6pm school day sounds like a recipe for a truckload of tabloid outrage.

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 11:32 am  

Jukesays wrote:

Well that's not true Is it?
They can go out unless they are "Vulnerable".
So what would they be doing if they could "carry on" or whatever it is you think they want to "carry on" doing?
They wouldn't be able to do anything different than what they're doing now unless all the other age groups start opening things up for them.

39% of deaths 60-79
9% of deaths 40 -59

Not an insignificant amount i would say?
Our own prime minister is what? 54/55 ish and they were making plans for his death werent they?
Remember, this is with a large scale lockdown, what would it have been like without it?
The hospitals around Cheltenham experienced 2 to 3 times more covid traffic 2 weeks after the festival, as did liverpool after the CL game.
That's akin to what would happen if we were to release lockdown too early.

Your original statement IMO implied that the majority of over 70s wanted to go out no matter the risks (and you used your parents as an example).
My 70+ aged uncles and aunties, the Bowlers and plenty more I've spoken to accept that even though they may "want" to go out, it isnt the best thing to do yet.
And unless they let all the 60 plus age group out and keep the under 60s on lockdown then it wont be safe for them. Because the ones who arent dying are still passing it on to those that statistically may.

What is described as vulnerable - older people with an underlying condition - well most people over 70 will have an underlying condition i.e. heart condition, Copid, diabetes etc. its just a result of ageing.

9% of 31k so c3,000 - 22% of 65m are aged between 40-59 so that's 14.3m so the chances of death in that group is 0.02%. In 2018 there were 54,307 deaths in this age group (33,486 male and 20,821 female) so if we divide that by 12 to give one month 4,525 - so your chances of dying normally is higher than dying of Covid in this age group?

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 11:43 am  

King Street Cat wrote:

"You then make better use of the facilities" just sounds like throwing a suggestion into the air and seeing what comes down. You must have an idealistic view of state school facilities. A handful of our site's are new, modern, spacious designs. Most are a mish-mash of Victorian buildings, post war knock-ups, and recent add-ons.

Your 12 hour shift works well as a bullish forum post, but in reality it fails to get out of the starting blocks. Do teachers not have kids, too? Do parents not work alternating shifts? Who looks after the kids who are waiting to go to school in the afternoon, or who are finishing at lunchtime? How many extra bus services will be needed at different times of the day? There would be no set rota of staff and students. It would probably have to be done on a weekly, if not daily basis.

I understand kids need to get their education. My 3 year old should have started school in April, and she's completely out of her routine now, but it was it is.

And before you say it, I'm not being overprotective here. I was an only child, latchkey kid. I had my own house key at 8. I used to regularly be alone in the house for 3 hours waiting for my Mum or Dad to get home first, or in the Summer I'd be running off around golf courses and becks with my mates. I believe kids should be able to look after themselves at a certain age, but that's not the society we live in, I'm afraid. Too much blame/claim culture over the last couple of decades has seen normally rational people lose their minds over the slightest thing. Your 6am-6pm school day sounds like a recipe for a truckload of tabloid outrage.

Answer the first question - are you saying no education until a vaccine?

Everything is barrier kids want inspiration, teachers that find solutions not dead ends. If you think work patterns are not going change because of this you are delusional - how many are currently working from home? If it meant getting their kids to school they would find a way.

Most buses are empty outside of rush hour - perhaps we need to encourage our kids to walk or cycle to work - splitting the shifts should reduce the burden - isn't that after all what the Government is suggesting when everyone returns to work?

There will be very few secondary schools that have Victorian buildings so come on be realistic.

Teachers haven't suddenly magicked kids - and they don't all have them - so work a rota that enables the best use of the resource - what would you do if you had to make it work?

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 12:33 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

What is described as vulnerable - older people with an underlying condition - well most people over 70 will have an underlying condition i.e. heart condition, Copid, diabetes etc. its just a result of ageing.

9% of 31k so c3,000 - 22% of 65m are aged between 40-59 so that's 14.3m so the chances of death in that group is 0.02%. In 2018 there were 54,307 deaths in this age group (33,486 male and 20,821 female) so if we divide that by 12 to give one month 4,525 - so your chances of dying normally is higher than dying of Covid in this age group?

Q1, Vulnerable = whoever had the mail from the government in would guess. If you have an problem with that classification I guess you should take it up with them.
And to class all of them as "Just ageing" is ridiculous.
But if it backs up your argument then you keep on Message.

So yes, 3000 people have died with/of Covid19, however that is on top of any normal death rate.
Just because "x" amount of people die of one thing you dont dismiss something else that's killing people.
And remember, this is whilst we have been in lockdown for 6/7 weeks, how would it have been without it?
I think Bojo keeps referring to his circa 500k as a reasonable worst case scenario whilst celebrating 31,000 deaths and rising as a good effort.
Does that theory not stand anymore? Has something changed with the virus that means we wont get to 500k deaths of were not careful?

Maybe, just maybe, if the government had acted differently earlier and hadnt ignored the warnings then the spikes wouldn't have been as high and the blows would have been easier to get to. Bit due to the exponential rise we are where we are and all that comes with it, and wanting release from lockdown just so people can "get on with things" isnt the answer.
We all want to get on with things.
Just remember to "stay alert", I'm sure you'll know what that means. Another lovely quick and snappy soundbite to stay on message.

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 12:39 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Answer the first question - are you saying no education until a vaccine?

Everything is barrier kids want inspiration, teachers that find solutions not dead ends. If you think work patterns are not going change because of this you are delusional - how many are currently working from home? If it meant getting their kids to school they would find a way.

Most buses are empty outside of rush hour - perhaps we need to encourage our kids to walk or cycle to work - splitting the shifts should reduce the burden - isn't that after all what the Government is suggesting when everyone returns to work?

There will be very few secondary schools that have Victorian buildings so come on be realistic.

Teachers haven't suddenly magicked kids - and they don't all have them - so work a rota that enables the best use of the resource - what would you do if you had to make it work?

Yeah King Street cat
"Get on with it"
stop
"putting up Barriers"

"Get schooling done"
"Get back to work"

Stop expressing any concern or knowledge based opinions, just "Get it done".

I'm surprised you havent canvassed Sal for his opinion as some sort of consultant yet.

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 12:53 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Answer the first question - are you saying no education until a vaccine?

There will be very few secondary schools that have Victorian buildings so come on be realistic.

what would you do if you had to make it work?

No.

As a MAT, we have primaries and secondaries, the majority of which are in post-industrial (coal & steel) areas. Some of the buildings are ancient. There is talk of Reception and Year 6 returning in June.

Forget about going back in the 19/20 year for a start. It's going to need longer than 2 or 3 weeks to get schools prepped for any sort of numbers. Most schools have only got double figure kids at the moment. I'd use the school holidays as a window to get the kids back. Presumably, parents will have some sort of childcare already in place for the school holidays (all may pose a threat to others in some way or another). That gives 6 weeks later down the line to get Reception kids prepped for primary, Year 6 prepped for secondary, Years 10 and 12 prepped for GCSE/A Level, come September, for the 20/21 year. I don't see the point of getting kids back for 6-7 weeks, then having them off again for the 6 week holidays. Start later, and use it as a slow rolling start to September. If Boris has got it right, like his apologists are saying, we should be flying by September.

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 12:58 pm  

King Street Cat wrote:

No.

As a MAT, we have primaries and secondaries, the majority of which are in post-industrial (coal & steel) areas. Some of the buildings are ancient. There is talk of Reception and Year 6 returning in June.

Forget about going back in the 19/20 year for a start. It's going to need longer than 2 or 3 weeks to get schools prepped for any sort of numbers. Most schools have only got double figure kids at the moment. I'd use the school holidays as a window to get the kids back. Presumably, parents will have some sort of childcare already in place for the school holidays (all may pose a threat to others in some way or another). That gives 6 weeks later down the line to get Reception kids prepped for primary, Year 6 prepped for secondary, Years 10 and 12 prepped for GCSE/A Level, come September, for the 20/21 year. I don't see the point of getting kids back for 6-7 weeks, then having them off again for 6 weeks holidays. Start later, and use it as a slow rolling start to September.

I would agree about this year but surely the same issues will still exist in September - the fabric of the school wont be any different, the make up/numbers of kids & teachers will be the same so what is going to change to allow it to happen?

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 1:08 pm  

Jukesays wrote:

Q1, Vulnerable = whoever had the mail from the government in would guess. If you have an problem with that classification I guess you should take it up with them.
And to class all of them as "Just ageing" is ridiculous.
But if it backs up your argument then you keep on Message.

So yes, 3000 people have died with/of Covid19, however that is on top of any normal death rate.
Just because "x" amount of people die of one thing you dont dismiss something else that's killing people.
And remember, this is whilst we have been in lockdown for 6/7 weeks, how would it have been without it?
I think Bojo keeps referring to his circa 500k as a reasonable worst case scenario whilst celebrating 31,000 deaths and rising as a good effort.
Does that theory not stand anymore? Has something changed with the virus that means we wont get to 500k deaths of were not careful?

Maybe, just maybe, if the government had acted differently earlier and hadnt ignored the warnings then the spikes wouldn't have been as high and the blows would have been easier to get to. Bit due to the exponential rise we are where we are and all that comes with it, and wanting release from lockdown just so people can "get on with things" isnt the answer.
We all want to get on with things.
Just remember to "stay alert", I'm sure you'll know what that means. Another lovely quick and snappy soundbite to stay on message.

I completely agree re. the government's handling of this - it has been very poor.

Are you saying that our bodies don't deteriorate with age - that is just a ridiculous notion? If you look at those that got the letter a big chunk fell into the categories that I outlined.

There will always be a trade off - relax the lockdown and infections will increase but you cannot lock the country down forever - Germany has seen infections grow.

Perhaps if we all took a bit more ownership of our own behaviour and stayed alert it is our best chance of not contracting the virus. If we don't within 6 feet of anyone outside of our household for an extended period then our chances of infection will be significantly reduced - just a thought?

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 1:08 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I would agree about this year but surely the same issues will still exist in September - the fabric of the school wont be any different, the make up/numbers of kids & teachers will be the same so what is going to change to allow it to happen?

The same issues will still exist, but you want the kids back into education, so I've given you a way of getting them back.

The only change I see, which may give us a better chance, is that people will be more accustomed to social distancing by then. If the staggered release is showing signs of success, then it might just work. I'm thinking of it in terms of the start of a marathon. You don't just release everyone at once. It would be carnage.

Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Mon May 11, 2020 1:11 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Perhaps if we all took a bit more ownership of our own behaviour and stayed alert

The slogan worked on one person. I'd written it off a total disaster.