Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 7:10 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

PR was rejected early in the last parliament.

AV was rejected in 2011, it is not the only form of PR available

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 8:13 pm  

As a former student of Politics, I can assure you that AV is not classed as PR.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 8:37 pm  

The Video Ref wrote:

As a former student of Politics, I can assure you that AV is not classed as PR.

Was going to say. I'd never heard it described as a form of PR, as it's another form of a majority voting system.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 8:53 pm  

DHM wrote:

Joking aside (and laughter is a good way of dealing with despair), this seems to be a resounding victory for nationalism. The Tories and UKIP did well with the white working class and that appeal has to be nationalism, leaving the EU, English laws for the English. The SNP by definition only want to leave the UK.

The EU issue is a massive problem for Cameron to negotiate. The Conservative Party is far from unanimous on the issue. I think it is fair to say there is widespread distaste and even loathing for the many deeply questionable and even openly venal practices the EU engages in but doesn't mean everyone thinks it is best to leave, what you don't find is any facile apologetics about the EU project, some may think it is worth wearing a peg on one's nose for but they're not pretending it's a fashion statement. I think a sizeable chunk of the party are desperately hoping for some willingness to reform from within the EU, even if it's just token gestures, but the realists know it is unlikely to happen as the problems are so deeply culturally ingrained that the patrons of the regime will not give them up.

The referendum has to happen, but it will cause a terrible split between those Conservatives who will argue that Britain needs to put a peg on its nose and look the other way as it gets a poop deal because the alternative of coming out is even worse, and those who will be morally outraged at the wetness of the other side. And for the avoidance of doubt I started to move to the wet side a few years ago on this and will be wearing a peg on my nose when I vote to stay in the EU.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:14 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

Ukip may only have one seat at Westminster but like it or not they are now the third largest party in the popular vote, so dismiss them at your peril.

Don't kid yourself that Labour saw this coming or that Ed Balls is happy about being thrown out. They have presided over a steady decline in influence north of the border for many years now and were complacent and failed to spot the dangers. Unless they swing back to the middle ground they will fall further behind the Tories in England too as Cameron & Osborne continue with their strong economic plans.

The SNP were comprehensively defeated in the independence referendum and I do not believe that their success in this election is due to a a change of heart regarding independence. IMO what has happened is that Labour has lost the plot with regard to policy and the swing to the SNP is due to so many people believing the SNP will better represent Scotland than Labour or the other "Westminster" parties on this occasion. Nicola Sturgeon fought a good campaign and in fairness made Milliband look an amateur in the debates and she offered a greater appeal than the bully boy Salmond. Now that the Tories have an overall majority the SNP influence has been neutralised and they will be made irrelevant at Westminster if the new government pass their promised bill making only English MPs able to vote on English matters.

I'm sick and tired of thick, economically illiterate tories claiming success in terms of this bubble economy essentially based on debt financed consumption - the exact same model that the Thatcher created by destroying the country's productive capacity along with her '86 Big Bang which was the embryo which resulted in '08 financial crisis.

We've had Cameron claiming to have reduced the debt (yes debt not deficit) after he's DOUBLED yes DOUBLED the national debt in only 5 years and chohorted with a central banker (who left Canada with a worse housing bubble than the US prior to the financial crisis) by printing money to reduce the budget deficit - yes the tories reduced the "deficit" by printing money - you know the same policy that failed in Zimbabwe???

Along the way the idiot Osborne duplicated the US's failed government back mortgage scheme that created the '08 collapse but calling his "help to buy" so the sheep que up to buy an over-priced property only to end up getting repossessed again.

There are already mainstream institution fund managers (not to mention the big time traders elsewhere) with short positions against UK Gilts and Sterling in preparation for the bond market collapsing. When this happens interest rates go to 15-20% in a matter of days and the country will default.

The great thing about when this happens, it will be on Cameron's watch and then we'll see what the him and Osborne think of their "strong economy" then...

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:56 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

UKIP have picked up working class support and it would be wise to actually discover the real reasons for this rather than just dismiss them all as 'simplistic idiots' whose votes can be written off.

Now that's an interesting one and it'd be fascinating to know if Labour had their ears to the ground.

It's been pretty clear for a long time Labour's working class vote was on the wane, for a number of reasons.
- The tradition of voting Labour "cos me dad always did" is slipping. Mainly because:
- The unions are dead. That traditional association with Labour is increasingly dying out as older generations pass. Newer generations simply don't have that connection. On that note it always fascinated me you could sit in a working class pub and hear conversations that would make Nick Griffin's toes curl, but those same people would then go out and vote Labour - cos that's just how it was.
- Rightly or wrongly immigration is a huge issue, with complaints of immigration driving wages down and not a small amount of often vocal zenophobia. Bearing in mind Labour opened the doors in 1997, UKIP and the Tories seem the most likely to do something about it. In fact anti-Tory rhetoric seems to have been outweighed by anti-immigration feeling.

On another note I was with a number of staff from the Chambers of Commerce of major city last night, as well as many significant business figures (a mix of entrepreneurs, SME and large/global corporates). Almost without fail they were hoping for a Tory or Tory-Lib Dem government. Definitely not Labour. In economic terms Labour were seen as bad news, moreso if the SNP were pulling the strings.

Re: The General Election Thread : Sat May 09, 2015 7:04 am  

General Zod. wrote:

I'm sick and tired of thick, economically illiterate tories claiming success in terms of this bubble economy essentially based on debt financed consumption - the exact same model that the Thatcher created by destroying the country's productive capacity along with her '86 Big Bang which was the embryo which resulted in '08 financial crisis.

We've had Cameron claiming to have reduced the debt (yes debt not deficit) after he's DOUBLED yes DOUBLED the national debt in only 5 years and chohorted with the central banker (who left Canada with a worse housing bubble than the US prior to the financial crisis) by printing money to reduce the budget deficit - yes the tories reduced the "deficit" by printing money - you know the same policy that failed in Zimbabwe???

Along the way the idiot Osborne duplicated the US's failed government back mortgage scheme that created the '08 collapse by calling his "help to buy" so the sheep que up to buy an over-priced property only to end up getting repossessed again.

There are already mainstream institution fund managers (not to mention the big time traders elsewhere) with short positions against UK Gilts and Sterling in preparation for the bond market collapsing. When this happens interest rates going to 15-20 in a matter of days and the country will default.

The great thing about when this happens, it will be on Cameron's watch and then we'll see what the him and Osborne think of their "strong economy" then...

My understanding of Gilts is that they are sold at a fixed interest rate - selling them short only changes the relationship between the face value and the interest rate not the government's ability to pay as the face value remains the same? If the government issues 10n at 5% it repays 10.5bn back regardless of market sentiment. Are you seriously suggesting that the UK will default on its debt and that it will not be able to borrow unless the bonds have a % 15-20%!!

Re: The General Election Thread : Sat May 09, 2015 8:17 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

My understanding of Gilts is that they are sold at a fixed interest rate - selling them short only changes the relationship between the face value and the interest rate not the government's ability to pay as the face value remains the same? If the government issues 10n at 5% it repays 10.5bn back regardless of market sentiment. Are you seriously suggesting that the UK will default on its debt and that it will not be able to borrow unless the bonds have a % 15-20%!!

The short positions themselves won't have a direct monetary affect on the solvency of the country, they're simply a way of cashing in on the consequence of the bond market collapsing though as sentiment grows for these trades, those who are long will go short which will accelerate events.

This country's so called "strong economy" is dependent on liquidity to keep the bubble inflated whether that be low interest rates, quantitive easing (money printing to you and me) and "Help to Buy" etc. but the laws of mathematics mean you can only do this for so long because the velocity of money eventually slows. The government can keep printing money to target inflation but this devalues the currency and exceeds the interest rates on the bonds or deflation kicks in and the economy grinds to a halt and revenues dry up - either way the bonds markets goes under.

When the bonds go, the currency goes with them which compounds the need to raise interest rates further (Russia recently had to raise interest rates to 17% to protect the Ruble) and there's absolutely nothing that can prevent this scenario from unfolding because 35% of the bond market are foreign buyers so it doesn't matter what anyone thinks.

When Thatcher said the market will have the final say she was right - this country will go under as a result of her time in office because when you turn the economy into a service economy like ours which is 70%, there's only so much financial engineering you can do before the chickens come home to roost.

The collapse of the country will be a good thing to wipe out baby boomer's pensions and their two holidays a year, and instead allow the young people of this country at least a fairer society - even though a poorer one.

The Tories know nothing.

Re: The General Election Thread : Sat May 09, 2015 8:22 am  

Him wrote:

You mean the referendum? That was AV not PR.

I dont think the referendum was lost because the electorate wanted electoral reform but not AV. If any other form voting had been put to the electorate it would have received the same response, give or take a couple of percentage points. Largely because the campaign to retain FPTP tends to swamp the reformers.

Re: The General Election Thread : Sat May 09, 2015 10:00 am  

General Zod. wrote:

The collapse of the country will be a good thing to wipe out baby boomer's pensions and their two holidays a year, and instead allow the young people of this country at least a fairer society - even though a poorer one.

Opinions such as this belong in the dark ages.