Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Mon May 08, 2017 7:55 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Looks like the French will be staying "in the club"
/www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/07/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidency-marine-le-pen

A former Rothschild investment banker set to unite divided and fractured France? Vive la France!

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Mon May 08, 2017 10:42 pm  

World of Redboy wrote:

So Merkel gets to rule Germany and France

Yep, although Le Pen has always targeted the next election, not this one. Reasonable success this time is merely a bonus and possibly an indicator of things to come.

A few more years of an ever more desperate and tyrannical EU, an unstoppable migrant crisis, the Euro debacle, further Islamist attacks on French soil, deepening resentment against the establishment and growing unemployment, and things could easily be different next time round. Macron seems too soft to succeed, especially coming in as an inexperienced one-man band.

I'm a little disappointed - not because I particularly support Le Pen but because things need to change. The liberal mindset has only created division and failure and more of the same will only exacerbate the existing problems. France could have shaken things up and truly driven the message home to those at the helm of the EU who simply will not accept any form of change.

Who knows, significant change within the EU could have seen the UK reconsider its exit.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 8:39 am  

Cronus wrote:

Yep, although Le Pen has always targeted the next election, not this one. Reasonable success this time is merely a bonus and possibly an indicator of things to come.

A few more years of an ever more desperate and tyrannical EU, an unstoppable migrant crisis, the Euro debacle, further Islamist attacks on French soil, deepening resentment against the establishment and growing unemployment, and things could easily be different next time round. Macron seems too soft to succeed, especially coming in as an inexperienced one-man band.

I'm a little disappointed - not because I particularly support Le Pen but because things need to change. The liberal mindset has only created division and failure and more of the same will only exacerbate the existing problems. France could have shaken things up and truly driven the message home to those at the helm of the EU who simply will not accept any form of change.

Who knows, significant change within the EU could have seen the UK reconsider its exit.

Thanks for that analysis Nigel - it seems that the right also shed tears when things don't go their way?

The gnashing of teeth from the anti-Euro brigade is interesting; the will of 51.9% of the 72.2% who voted in the EU referendum in the UK must be respected, but the French electorate got it wrong when 66% of a 75.3% turnout voted to reject the gentrified version of fascism that Le Pen represents?

This result shores up the EU significantly, and leaves the UK looking increasingly isolated.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 11:35 am  

bren2k wrote:

Thanks for that analysis Nigel - it seems that the right also shed tears when things don't go their way?

The gnashing of teeth from the anti-Euro brigade is interesting; the will of 51.9% of the 72.2% who voted in the EU referendum in the UK must be respected, but the French electorate got it wrong when 66% of a 75.3% turnout voted to reject the gentrified version of fascism that Le Pen represents?

This result shores up the EU significantly, and leaves the UK looking increasingly isolated.

Methinks you're reading too much into 'I'm a little disappointed...because things need to change".

Shed tears? Gnashing teeth? Please. Yes, I believe the EU needs to dramatically change or die, and this would have been a great opportunity to force change on those inflicting their failed ideals on Europe. But hey ho, such is life. We'll be out soon enough, not my problem if Le Froggies choose to drag their pain out for a few more years. (awaits accusations of racism from snowflake)

It's their choice. That's how democracy works (though you'd struggle to get that message through to Remoaners in the UK). More of the same for La Republique seems an odd choice - but by all accounts many voted against Le Pen rather than for Macron. The guy has barely put his manifesto together and has no party. Not a good state of affairs.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 3:10 pm  

Cronus wrote:

It's their choice. That's how democracy works (though you'd struggle to get that message through to Remoaners in the UK). More of the same for La Republique seems an odd choice - but by all accounts many voted against Le Pen rather than for Macron. The guy has barely put his manifesto together and has no party. Not a good state of affairs.

I'm not sure voting in Le Pen would make the state of affairs better (?).

You're possibly right in the bit I've bolded. I'd hope that if we were faced with similar options in the UK, people would use their vote first and foremost to reject fascism, even if that went against their belief on whether to remain or leave the EU. The lesser of two evils if you will (for those who'd see it that way).

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 3:23 pm  

DGM wrote:

I'm not sure voting in Le Pen would make the state of affairs better (?).

You're possibly right in the bit I've bolded. I'd hope that if we were faced with similar options in the UK, people would use their vote first and foremost to reject fascism, even if that went against their belief on whether to remain or leave the EU. The lesser of two evils if you will (for those who'd see it that way).

Indeed
It's most significant that Le Penn's share of the vote, although strong in the first round at 35%, didn't budge in the second round and she again polled 35% (or pretty damn close).
My prediction of 6/7 weeks ago was bang on

Thankfully the vast majority of French, German, Dutch and English voters have said NO to the far right.

Having said that, something has to be done to slow the exodus from Africa, which seems to be the main influx of people into Europe.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 3:27 pm  

Cronus wrote:

Methinks you're reading too much into 'I'm a little disappointed...because things need to change".

Shed tears? Gnashing teeth? Please. Yes, I believe the EU needs to dramatically change or die, and this would have been a great opportunity to force change on those inflicting their failed ideals on Europe. But hey ho, such is life. We'll be out soon enough, not my problem if Le Froggies choose to drag their pain out for a few more years. (awaits accusations of racism from snowflake)

It's their choice. That's how democracy works (though you'd struggle to get that message through to Remoaners in the UK). More of the same for La Republique seems an odd choice - but by all accounts many voted against Le Pen rather than for Macron. The guy has barely put his manifesto together and has no party. Not a good state of affairs.

What people voting for the unknown !
That would never happen in good old Blighty

You talk about no manifesto, which is still probably better than utter nonsense and drivel.

Yours

Snowflake

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 4:00 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Having said that, something has to be done to slow the exodus from Africa, which seems to be the main influx of people into Europe.

Indeed. That's a bit difficult for the populists though.

IMO there needs to be a combination of pressure and incentives on certain countries with the aim of improving conditions there. Only when issues such as war, poverty and the effects of climate change are addressed will the migration slow down.

Think Africa needs a country to "do a Turkey" when it comes to dealing with migrants. It will cost billions but it would prevent a lot of migrants coming to Europe. Trouble is nowhere in Africa seems anywhere close to Turkey in being able to do that.

Simply pulling up the drawbridge and ignoring it won't work.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 4:18 pm  

Bullseye wrote:

Indeed. That's a bit difficult for the populists though.

IMO there needs to be a combination of pressure and incentives on certain countries with the aim of improving conditions there. Only when issues such as war, poverty and the effects of climate change are addressed will the migration slow down.

Think Africa needs a country to "do a Turkey" when it comes to dealing with migrants. It will cost billions but it would prevent a lot of migrants coming to Europe. Trouble is nowhere in Africa seems anywhere close to Turkey in being able to do that.

Simply pulling up the drawbridge and ignoring it won't work.

I agree.
It's a crazy state of affairs when gangs of criminals can be allowed to charge desperate people significant cash on the "chance" of getting to Europe.
Although it would be utterly wrong to deny refuge to genuine asylum seekers, permitting "organised" mass movement is just wrong, on a number of levels.

It would seem harsh to rescue these people and return them to the port that they left but, without something like this, the problem will continue to grow.

As you suggest, with some dialogue and even some "incentives" between the most affected nations, on would expect that the numbers could be heavily reduced.

Of course, it suits some factions to portray all of this as "free movement" within the EU but there are multiple issues and they clearly need addressing.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Tue May 09, 2017 4:30 pm  

Western countries need to agree a common approach to "persuade" the worst countries to sort themselves out. They also need to sort out neighbouring countries to ensure they can look after refugees.

It costs money - the reason for the foreign aid budget. Otherwise they'll turn up anyway.

A lot of what is wrong with Africa is down to western policy (e.g Libya) and it would be in our long term interests to sort it out.

Radicalisation always increases in chaotic places and situations. Sort that out and people turn away from it. However it's easier said than done.

It's a long term problem that won't be sorted overnight and doesn't play well with populists and electioneering.