Re: Doncaster v Hunslet Sunday 19/09/2021 4pm kick off : Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:54 pm
Double Movement wrote:
Realistically, what are our chances? Assuming all teams involved in the play-offs are of the same standard, with home advantage probably counting for four to six points, home teams should be slight favourites in every game.
On that basis, the home team's odds should be near to 10/11 with the away team's odds at 11/10. In effect this means each home team has a 52.4% chance of winning with the away side having a 47.6% chance.
On this calculation, the Dons will have a 52.4% chance of winning against Hunslet.
The chances of us winning in week two as well as week one would be 25%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) = 4.011) 100 divided by 4.011 = 24.93%.
Getting through the third week is 12%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) times 2.10 (Week 3 odds) = 8.42) 100 divided by 8.42 = 11.87%
Winning the final in week four is 5.65% (1.91 times 2.10 times 2.10 times 2.10 = 17.69. 100 divided by 17.69 = 5.65%
So, the calculation based on all teams being of equal standing means the odds of the Dons winning the play-offs is 16.7 to 1.
This may slightly overstate our chances as Workington will have a 'rest weekend' and could be fresher than everyone else, increasing their chances slightly and decreasing everyone else's
On that basis, the home team's odds should be near to 10/11 with the away team's odds at 11/10. In effect this means each home team has a 52.4% chance of winning with the away side having a 47.6% chance.
On this calculation, the Dons will have a 52.4% chance of winning against Hunslet.
The chances of us winning in week two as well as week one would be 25%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) = 4.011) 100 divided by 4.011 = 24.93%.
Getting through the third week is 12%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) times 2.10 (Week 3 odds) = 8.42) 100 divided by 8.42 = 11.87%
Winning the final in week four is 5.65% (1.91 times 2.10 times 2.10 times 2.10 = 17.69. 100 divided by 17.69 = 5.65%
So, the calculation based on all teams being of equal standing means the odds of the Dons winning the play-offs is 16.7 to 1.
This may slightly overstate our chances as Workington will have a 'rest weekend' and could be fresher than everyone else, increasing their chances slightly and decreasing everyone else's
Whilst I love maths and my degree is based mostly on statistics I really think there are so many variables you can't factor in for anything other than the next game. It's an interesting analysis Mike but it's a rabbit hole. 1 game at a time. That said it did make for interesting reading!
