FORUMS FORUMS






RLFANS.COM
Celebrating
25 years service to
the Rugby League
Community!

   WWW.RLFANS.COM • View topic - Doncaster v Hunslet Sunday 19/09/2021 4pm kick off
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain703No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
May 18 20186 years286th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
6th Dec 21 19:435th Dec 21 16:06LINK
Milestone Posts
500
1000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Double Movement wrote:
Realistically, what are our chances? Assuming all teams involved in the play-offs are of the same standard, with home advantage probably counting for four to six points, home teams should be slight favourites in every game.

On that basis, the home team's odds should be near to 10/11 with the away team's odds at 11/10. In effect this means each home team has a 52.4% chance of winning with the away side having a 47.6% chance.

On this calculation, the Dons will have a 52.4% chance of winning against Hunslet.


The chances of us winning in week two as well as week one would be 25%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) = 4.011) 100 divided by 4.011 = 24.93%.

Getting through the third week is 12%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) times 2.10 (Week 3 odds) = 8.42) 100 divided by 8.42 = 11.87%

Winning the final in week four is 5.65% (1.91 times 2.10 times 2.10 times 2.10 = 17.69. 100 divided by 17.69 = 5.65%

So, the calculation based on all teams being of equal standing means the odds of the Dons winning the play-offs is 16.7 to 1.

This may slightly overstate our chances as Workington will have a 'rest weekend' and could be fresher than everyone else, increasing their chances slightly and decreasing everyone else's


Whilst I love maths and my degree is based mostly on statistics I really think there are so many variables you can't factor in for anything other than the next game. It's an interesting analysis Mike but it's a rabbit hole. 1 game at a time. That said it did make for interesting reading!
RankPostsTeam
Club Owner8018No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
May 16 200321 years267th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
28th Mar 24 21:2717th Mar 24 19:12LINK
Milestone Posts
5000
10000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Did not expect Douglas being in the squad , hope he is fit & firing . Big game from Peltier needed also.

Glad to see Matty back in the squad .

COYD
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
International Star3426
JoinedServiceReputation
Aug 06 201113 years191st
OnlineLast PostLast Page
28th Mar 24 14:1919th Mar 24 09:13LINK
Milestone Posts
2500
5000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
In the heart of Doncaster

Rob Nash wrote:
Whilst I love maths and my degree is based mostly on statistics I really think there are so many variables you can't factor in for anything other than the next game. It's an interesting analysis Mike but it's a rabbit hole. 1 game at a time. That said it did make for interesting reading!


Good stuff. Rob. Glad you enjoyed it. I'd like to think we've got a better chance than the numbers suggest but I think the numbers do put the challenge into some sort of perspective. Not having a 'second chance' is crucial. All you need is another incident like the sending off last Sunday and that could scupper everything.
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain703No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
May 18 20186 years286th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
6th Dec 21 19:435th Dec 21 16:06LINK
Milestone Posts
500
1000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Double Movement wrote:
Good stuff. Rob. Glad you enjoyed it. I'd like to think we've got a better chance than the numbers suggest but I think the numbers do put the challenge into some sort of perspective. Not having a 'second chance' is crucial. All you need is another incident like the sending off last Sunday and that could scupper everything.

It could be wide open Mike. I've got a weird feeling that if we can do this one then who knows....
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Moderator93060No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Sep 18 200222 years119th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
28th Mar 24 23:5829th Mar 24 05:10LINK
Milestone Posts
75000
100000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Doncaster
Moderator

Dons +4 10/11 with Skybet.

A Dons win is 5/4.
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain703No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
May 18 20186 years286th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
6th Dec 21 19:435th Dec 21 16:06LINK
Milestone Posts
500
1000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Wanderer wrote:
Dons +4 10/11 with Skybet.

A Dons win is 5/4.

I'll wait to see the 17. That said I'm a bit surprised with that. Why would we not be favourites?
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Player Coach4036
JoinedServiceReputation
Nov 03 200518 years263rd
OnlineLast PostLast Page
28th Mar 24 18:3520th Mar 24 14:44LINK
Milestone Posts
2500
5000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Within earshot of the XH558

Rob Nash wrote:
I'll wait to see the 17. That said I'm a bit surprised with that. Why would we not be favourites?


Hunslets current form Rob which includes the big win at Worky last week.
User avatar
RankPostsTeam
Moderator93060No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Sep 18 200222 years119th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
28th Mar 24 23:5829th Mar 24 05:10LINK
Milestone Posts
75000
100000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Doncaster
Moderator

Wanderer wrote:
Dons +4 10/11 with Skybet.

A Dons win is 5/4.

Dons +2 10/11 with Bet365.

Tight, but both have Hunslet as slight favourites.
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain703No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
May 18 20186 years286th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
6th Dec 21 19:435th Dec 21 16:06LINK
Milestone Posts
500
1000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

Wilf Grimshaw wrote:
Hunslets current form Rob which includes the big win at Worky last week.

Our forms not too shabby plus we're at home. If the 17 is what I hope it is then I'd back us without a doubt.
RankPostsTeam
Club Captain703No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
May 18 20186 years286th
OnlineLast PostLast Page
6th Dec 21 19:435th Dec 21 16:06LINK
Milestone Posts
500
1000
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530

To add. Workington have dropped off badly. A trip there holds no fear. Also has anyone else done the double on them this year?
PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 122 guests

REPLY

Subject: 
Message:
   
Please note using apple style emoji's can result in posting failures.
Use the FULL EDITOR to better format content or upload images, be notified of replies etc...

Return to Doncaster RLFC


RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
13m
Ky Rodwell
Eastern Wild
110
Recent
Game - Song Titles
Wanderer
34291
Recent
BORED The Band Name Game
Wanderer
56012
Recent
Smith - should he stay or should he go
weaver93
359
Recent
TV games not Wire
rubber ducki
2864
Recent
The Good Friday Derby Massacre
Tarquin Fueg
139
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
1m
Challenge Cup
stpatricks
37
1m
York - 14th April
Spookisback
10
1m
Smith - should he stay or should he go
weaver93
359
2m
The Good Friday Derby Massacre
Tarquin Fueg
139
2m
Another Tigers Defeat As Rhinos Go Level Top
RLFANS News
1
2m
Saints a
WWste
23
2m
Huddersfield - Home
Fartown58
6
3m
Ky Rodwell
Eastern Wild
110
3m
Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE
RobRiches
1934
3m
Squad for Catalan
Smiffy27
17
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
Another Tigers Defeat As Rhinos Go Level Top
RLFANS News
1
TODAY
York - 14th April
Spookisback
10
TODAY
Stats article
Sir Gregory
5
TODAY
21 man Squads - Devils v Leopards
Cokey
4
TODAY
Squad for Catalan
Smiffy27
17
TODAY
The Wigan Way - New Podcast - Chairman Special
Jukesays
1
TODAY
Dons v Swinton Lions 30 June 2024
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Squad for Sheffield
AdamH
1
TODAY
London Away
Fartown58
1
TODAY
The Bulls away
terry silver
9
TODAY
The official Leon Hayes Thread
Smiffy27
18
TODAY
Saints a
WWste
23
TODAY
Leon Ruan signs on loan
Jemmo
2
TODAY
Wardle
Jo Jumbuck
3
TODAY
Huddersfield - Home
Fartown58
6
TODAY
Max Wood on loan to Bradford 2 weeks
rubber ducki
7
TODAY
Jake Wardle 5 Year deal
Zig
22
TODAY
No grade A for 2025 for Trinity
PopTart
27
TODAY
Cup Quarter Final TV Arrangements
RLFANS News
1
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
Another Tigers Defeat As Rhino..
140
Cup Quarter Final TV Arrangeme..
561
2024 Challenge Cup Quarter Fin..
679
Easy Does It For The Dragons A..
589
Warrington Demolish London For..
692
Leigh Leopards Beat Plucky Fea..
743
Saints Triumph Over Disappoint..
724
Easy Win for the Wolves Over L..
960
Dragons Condemn Castleford To ..
929
Leigh Leopards Secure First Po..
1075
St Helens Tame The Rhinos To W..
1047
Wigan Warriors Come From Behin..
1113
Betfred Championship and Leagu..
1089
2024 Challenge Cup Sixth Round..
3873
Featherstone Win Extra Time Cu..
1206
RLFANS Match Centre
Matches on TV
Table 'boards.stats_fixtures' doesn't exist