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   WWW.RLFANS.COM • View topic - Doncaster v Hunslet Sunday 19/09/2021 4pm kick off
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Double Movement wrote:
Realistically, what are our chances? Assuming all teams involved in the play-offs are of the same standard, with home advantage probably counting for four to six points, home teams should be slight favourites in every game.

On that basis, the home team's odds should be near to 10/11 with the away team's odds at 11/10. In effect this means each home team has a 52.4% chance of winning with the away side having a 47.6% chance.

On this calculation, the Dons will have a 52.4% chance of winning against Hunslet.


The chances of us winning in week two as well as week one would be 25%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) = 4.011) 100 divided by 4.011 = 24.93%.

Getting through the third week is 12%. (1.91 (Hunslet odds) times 2.10 (Week 2 odds) times 2.10 (Week 3 odds) = 8.42) 100 divided by 8.42 = 11.87%

Winning the final in week four is 5.65% (1.91 times 2.10 times 2.10 times 2.10 = 17.69. 100 divided by 17.69 = 5.65%

So, the calculation based on all teams being of equal standing means the odds of the Dons winning the play-offs is 16.7 to 1.

This may slightly overstate our chances as Workington will have a 'rest weekend' and could be fresher than everyone else, increasing their chances slightly and decreasing everyone else's


Whilst I love maths and my degree is based mostly on statistics I really think there are so many variables you can't factor in for anything other than the next game. It's an interesting analysis Mike but it's a rabbit hole. 1 game at a time. That said it did make for interesting reading!
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Did not expect Douglas being in the squad , hope he is fit & firing . Big game from Peltier needed also.

Glad to see Matty back in the squad .

COYD
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Rob Nash wrote:
Whilst I love maths and my degree is based mostly on statistics I really think there are so many variables you can't factor in for anything other than the next game. It's an interesting analysis Mike but it's a rabbit hole. 1 game at a time. That said it did make for interesting reading!


Good stuff. Rob. Glad you enjoyed it. I'd like to think we've got a better chance than the numbers suggest but I think the numbers do put the challenge into some sort of perspective. Not having a 'second chance' is crucial. All you need is another incident like the sending off last Sunday and that could scupper everything.
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Double Movement wrote:
Good stuff. Rob. Glad you enjoyed it. I'd like to think we've got a better chance than the numbers suggest but I think the numbers do put the challenge into some sort of perspective. Not having a 'second chance' is crucial. All you need is another incident like the sending off last Sunday and that could scupper everything.

It could be wide open Mike. I've got a weird feeling that if we can do this one then who knows....
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Dons +4 10/11 with Skybet.

A Dons win is 5/4.
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Wanderer wrote:
Dons +4 10/11 with Skybet.

A Dons win is 5/4.

I'll wait to see the 17. That said I'm a bit surprised with that. Why would we not be favourites?
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Rob Nash wrote:
I'll wait to see the 17. That said I'm a bit surprised with that. Why would we not be favourites?


Hunslets current form Rob which includes the big win at Worky last week.
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Wanderer wrote:
Dons +4 10/11 with Skybet.

A Dons win is 5/4.

Dons +2 10/11 with Bet365.

Tight, but both have Hunslet as slight favourites.
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Wilf Grimshaw wrote:
Hunslets current form Rob which includes the big win at Worky last week.

Our forms not too shabby plus we're at home. If the 17 is what I hope it is then I'd back us without a doubt.
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To add. Workington have dropped off badly. A trip there holds no fear. Also has anyone else done the double on them this year?
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