Re: How many games will we win. : Mon Nov 25, 2024 12:38 am  

slightly less than half ... would be a fair target

Re: How many games will we win. : Mon Nov 25, 2024 11:04 am  

Willzay wrote:

You get shot down for a reason.

Is that because I do not watch the team with rose tinted glasses on .

Re: How many games will we win. : Mon Nov 25, 2024 11:50 am  

- use better words Willzay - Poptart

Re: How many games will we win. : Mon Nov 25, 2024 6:07 pm  

I usually look at the bookies for a guide and they can't split us . Unfortunately it's for bottom spot with us both quoted at 100/1 To Win LLS and 66/1 for GF success (all with Sky , other bookies are available) . Sky also have a head to head regular season market ,with both of us quoted at 5/6.

Re: How many games will we win. : Mon Nov 25, 2024 6:14 pm  

I think there are far too many unknowns and variables about Wakefield Trinity for anyone, even bookies, to confidently predict where we’ll finish.

Starting at the top, who knows what Matt Ellis has up his sleeve, I wouldn’t put it past him to have a Barry Hough like Wally Lewis signing to spring on everyone. (Before any one jumps on me I’m just musing and speculating)

Last time Powell had a gig in the SL he bombed miserably so there’s always that chance it won’t go well or maybe he’ll rediscover the magic he had a Castleford.

Many of our squad, even first choice players like Uele and Rodwell are unknown quantities at a higher level than the Championship. They may become even better at a higher level or the lower division may be their ceiling.

Likewise some of the younger players might not kick on or may improve hugely.

We just don’t know!

Re: How many games will we win. : Mon Nov 25, 2024 8:46 pm  

The Avenger wrote:

I think there are far too many unknowns and variables about Wakefield Trinity for anyone, even bookies, to confidently predict where we’ll finish.

Starting at the top, who knows what Matt Ellis has up his sleeve, I wouldn’t put it past him to have a Barry Hough like Wally Lewis signing to spring on everyone. (Before any one jumps on me I’m just musing and speculating)

Last time Powell had a gig in the SL he bombed miserably so there’s always that chance it won’t go well or maybe he’ll rediscover the magic he had a Castleford.

Many of our squad, even first choice players like Uele and Rodwell are unknown quantities at a higher level than the Championship. They may become even better at a higher level or the lower division may be their ceiling.

Likewise some of the younger players might not kick on or may improve hugely.

We just don’t know!

Let’s not forget that Powell with Wire won 9? Or so in a row to start with. Then it started to go wrong. It’s well publicised of the cause of that.

That shows to me Powell more than has the ability if given the backing.

Re: How many games will we win. : Tue Nov 26, 2024 9:57 am  

A good mate of mine builds betting models for BetFred, and says that Rugby League and Snooker are the two markets that the bookies know least about (so are the only two sports he bets on!). If you're an avid RL fan then you probably know more than the guys setting up the data. Look at Sky's odds for the 2024 table this time a year ago:

Wigan
Saints
Leeds
Warrington
Catalans
Hull KR
Leigh
Huddersfield
Hull FC
Salford
Castleford
London

They got Wigan (shock) and London (shock), and were one out with Wire and Cas. But any RL tragic would have told you Leeds wouldn't finish in the top 4, Salford would be closer to the playoffs, and KR would probably be stronger than 6th.

What I'm trying to say is don't worry too much about the bookies, Trin are going to Old Trafford. @alegend

[PopTart]

Re: How many games will we win. : Tue Nov 26, 2024 12:18 pm  

I've worked in betting industry too.
The starting odds are not worked out by the traders. They are sorted by central companies that distribute to most big gaming companies like Bet Fred or Bet365.
The traders then adjust those odds depending on how much has been bet on that team.
Also Rugby isn't a bit money earner for them so focus on it less.

If you want to see the odds change, put a £1000 on Wakefield. They'll change the odds to cover the potential loss but not by much as it's a real outside bet.

So the odds are worked out by 3 things
Likelihood of the win
Likelihood of someone betting on it
......and then changes in circumstances like a key player being injured.

Re: How many games will we win. : Tue Nov 26, 2024 12:33 pm  

I'm sure there are third parties involved, but he and his team do build the models for the odds in-house.

If that's all the odds are worked out on, then it really is a punter's market. How do they work out likelihood of a win?

Re: How many games will we win. : Tue Nov 26, 2024 12:51 pm  

alegend wrote:

Is that because I do not watch the team with rose tinted glasses on .

No, it's because you stated

some players in who have moved a round from club to club ,that means not good enough to hold a position down at a club

and that's wrong as I showed you. As well as the comment about players that can play 2 positions being rubbish at both, which is just wrong.
Also, we've had constant negative posters on here for years, sometimes with good reason, but I'm not sure what you're game's been this season, after we've finally got what we've all been after for decades, a man who has the cash and the will to finally take us somewhere. As I've said, I just don't understand it all in the slightest, this continuous negative spin you seem to put on most things the club seems to do, just a constant bad buzz.

Anyway, I haven't answered the question yet, I'd be disappointed with less than 8 wins tbh, but I'm hopeful of getting low double figures if things work out on the injury front and the players can click.