Re: More betting chat.... : Wed Aug 18, 2010 8:04 pm  

Group horse someone was saying on here

Yorkshire Oaks is giving me a massive headache

Re: More betting chat.... : Wed Aug 18, 2010 8:12 pm  

It was me mate who talked Ransom Note up as I was told that the stable hold the horse in very high regard and even consider it a potential group horse, I'll probably have a few quid on again tomorrow but the 'Hills' factor will again be the thing holding me back. Michael is nowhere near as bad as his brother IMO, but for me they're both poor in a finish and not the type of jockey to throw the kitchen sink at a horse to get it home a la Moore, Fallon, Hanagan etc...

I like the look of Galtymore Lad in the opener, has solid looking form in the book at 6f and looks a very genuine tryer, especially last time when giving everything in chasing home a potentially smart horse. Ladbrokes price at the moment of 16/1 looks extremely generous to me!

Maqaasid is just different gravy! I was told before it won the Queen Mary that it was an absolute monster of a horse and one of the best Gosden has had. Richard Hills being up will prevent me backing but I wouldn't be putting anyine off backing, a definite watch and admire race for me!

The other of huge interest to me is Raiph Beckett's Ceilidh House in the 4.05. This filly was hugely impressive on debut and am sure at one point or other was not far off ante-post favourite for the oaks? Was starting to look like another Look Here from the same connections but had problems. From The Oaks to this level is a huge drop in class and 12/1 looks a fair e/w price to me if she's shaken off her problems...

Re: More betting chat.... : Wed Aug 18, 2010 9:03 pm  

Can't see past Sariska, but would fear Snow Fairy. If she runs like her past two races, then her turn of foot will blitz it. Midday is no slouch either though. I backed her to win it last year which hurt my pocket. Now we know this is her ground, not fast ground.

I agree Maqaasid will take a lot of beating, but I never have any luck with the Hills team so....

Re: More betting chat.... : Wed Aug 18, 2010 9:32 pm  

Bremen land the odds, but would have preferred half time / full time... but a winner is a winner.

Re: More betting chat.... : Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:26 am  

Couple of interesting movers in the market so far this morning..

Fahey's Wootton Bassett in the opener has been steadily shortening at every bookies this morning and at the current price in such a large and competitive field must take a lot of money to do so. This could be one of those that is just in a different league and could win this easily?

The other I've seen come in for good money is one that I mentioned last noght! Ceilidh House was widely available at 12's last night but is now a best priced 8/1 and as low as 6/1 at a few. Maybe a good sign that she's over her problems and ready to run a big race in a grade that's beneath her class?

Re: More betting chat.... : Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:40 am  

That Oxx trained Zarebiya is very well bred looking at maybe doing one of the big price ones E/W in that though.

Can't call Sariska and Midday right now with Midday getting that 5lb shift from last time but Sariska is 3-0 in all races against each other.

Re: More betting chat.... : Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:51 am  

Not a good race betting wise really the Yorkshire Oaks...Too many question marks for me..Is Snow Fairy really that good? If she is the weight allowance will surely allow her to go close. Would Sariska want it a fair bit softer and what's the track like at the moment? Can Midday turn the tables and finish in front of Sariska?

Probably the most interesting one for me is Barshiba at 40/1..

If Sariska and Barshiba both give the same runnings as they did in this race last year then Barshiba finishes in front of Sariska today FACT.

I know she's 6 but is clearly as good this season as she ever has been and if Hanagan can dictate the pace from the front correctly and save a bit up his sleeve then who knows?

Re: More betting chat.... : Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:53 am  

Maqaasid has been impressive in both it's starts but Margot Did will be held in behind and just prefer it at the price 11/4.

Sariska, Midday, Snow Fairy, now this is a conundrum.
Three year olds with a great record in this race and in receipt of 10lbs but what has it really beat in it's two very impressive Oaks victories?
3-0 to Sariska in the Midday match-ups but I'm gonna plump for Henrys, receiving 5lb from their last encounter.

Re: More betting chat.... : Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:59 am  

The stats do say that 3yo's have a good record in this race, especially in receipt of that 10lb allowance.

That's what puts me off Sariska today...She couldn't win with that allowance last year, and was only just over a couple of lengths in front of Barshiba at the line and was probably neck and neck deep into the final furlong. Barshiba then is 10lbs better off with Sariska today and has a couple of lengths to find on last years running. It's not as if Sariska came there cantering on the bridle a furlong out either, she was hard at it a good two or three furlongs out.

Re: More betting chat.... : Thu Aug 19, 2010 10:00 am  

upthecats wrote:

Not a good race betting wise really the Yorkshire Oaks...Too many question marks for me..Is Snow Fairy really that good? If she is the weight allowance will surely allow her to go close. Would Sariska want it a fair bit softer and what's the track like at the moment? Can Midday turn the tables and finish in front of Sariska?

Probably the most interesting one for me is Barshiba at 40/1..

If Sariska and Barshiba both give the same runnings as they did in this race last year then Barshiba finishes in front of Sariska today FACT.

I know she's 6 but is clearly as good this season as she ever has been and if Hanagan can dictate the pace from the front correctly and save a bit up his sleeve then who knows?

Barshiba would have to turn the tables on Midday from last time though