Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:49 am  

I think it's about time we had the Cheltenham thread up, with news beginning to leak out of withdrawals and injuries.

Kauto Star is now 50/50 after a problem suffered on Friday. Grandouet is out of the Champion Hurdle, whilst Captain Chris could also miss the Festival after a poor run in the Argento.

Anybody heading to Prestbury Park this year? I have tickets for the Tues and Thurs but may have to miss the Tuesday at the moment. :/

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:56 am  

Will be there on thursday, and in the Pack of Cards at 10.30!!

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:18 pm  

I've never been, I would absolutely love to go. I think it's right up there on my 'bucket list'.

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:28 pm  

think i may go down for the tuesday..
went tues and weds last year

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:00 pm  

My bets so far:

Put a single on Big Buck's in November @ 4/5 with Ladbrokes, NRNB.
Done a single on Quevega at the same stake & odds when it was announced Voler would be going for the World. I must've literally been one of the last people to get the 4/5 that was left with Boyles, as shortly after they were same price as everyone else. No NRNB so backside will be nipping until I see her line up at the tape.

Three multiples with free bet money.

Quevega (5/4) & Big Buck's (4/7), with the first leg being Novak Djokovic to win the Aussie open.

The next one was a nine-timer which included a few cross the card sports bets (Man Utd to beat Ajax in Amsterdam etc), plus Hurricane Fly (8/11), Big Buck's (8/15) and Quevega (4/7).

The most recent one was Hurricane Fly (4/5), Quevega (4/7), Big Buck's (4/7) and Long Run (9/4) acca.


Just backed Quevega again, 1/2 - crap price but at least I got NRNB. Unaccompanied only runs if Quevega doesn't, and realistically she should beat the rest of them on the snaff.
Same odds as the Buck's machine, yet it is easy to make a case for Oscar Whisky. Even if you don't think OW will beat him - it is easy to see him giving BB a big race if he stays the trip.
Cannot see anything troubling Quevega. She beat a far better field than this over further at Punchestown last year despite making a complete hash of the last hurdle and hacked all over a similar field to this one at Chelts for the past couple of years.

My swerve of the meeting is Sizing Europe. Make no bones about it, he has had three hard races this year. The first one on heavy ground at Down Royal, the second in the Tingle Creek - ok, he slammed the lot of them but Lynch still asked him to kick on and do it with authority, same scenario against Big Zeb in the tied cottage. Think that could be the Championship race with a shock result this year.
Finian's Rainbow is the most likely candidate, but he isn't the type you associate with a street fight. Big Zeb maybe a bit too old now. Kauto Stone will have to settle better than past twice if he is to ever win a decent prize. After that, there aren't many conceivable options. Somersby going for the Ryanair probably, Wishful Thinking has had a queer season so far, rest of them...

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:25 pm  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUWEnwDgxaw wonder what odds Harchibald would've went on Betfair!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUWEnwDgxaw wonder what odds Harchibald would've went on Betfair!

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:59 pm  

I read somewhere that someone thought the Gold Cup field was high class, could'nt disagree more. So I thought i'd take it apart, by looking at the last 22 winners.
1/ The last 12 had run in either the King George or Lexus in their winning season.
2/ 17/22 had previously run in a grade 1 chase at a previous festival. Cool Dawn had run in a foxhunter, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Jodami were having their 1st run at the course, whilst foot and mouth put pay to Best Mate running in the Arkle.
3/ 16/22 had run in either the KG or Lexus earlier in the season. Cool Dawn was thought to be a handicapper, no reason why Garrison Savannah missed either race, Master Oats was thought to be a national horse, whilst Imperial Call and Jodami both prepped in what was Ireland's top GC trial- Irish Hennessey.

Just by using the top stat, we are left with 3. Long Run, Captain Chris and Synchronised. We can eliminate the latter, as he has no Cheltenham festival chase form, in fact his 2 Chelt runs read fell and 6th.

Long Run will now go off fav. Evens imo, but defending champions have a poor record in the race, and I feel last year's race just fell apart for him. Which leaves ;

CAPTAIN CHRIS;
£25 e/w @ 40/1 with Stan James.

Ran 3rd in the KG
Has festival chase form- won Arkle.
His record on good going (usual for Cheltenham) reads 111211U, his 2 losses can be argued to be unlucky.
His record between march and may ( spring horse) outside of his debut is 11111.

Very much the forgotten horse of the race.

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:17 pm  

the king george is 2.5f less on a flat track, and captain chris also has a tendency to jump right.

won arkle well last year but can't see any better than him running on for a place.

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:46 pm  

Kempton form is often a good pointer to Cheltenham, especially the RP chase meeting.

The thing about these 3milers nowadays, is they tend to be wrapped in cottonwool, and only ever appear in the big races. Gone are the days of seeing the likes of Dessie lumping weights in handicaps. Plus, ims, there is also a bonus for the KG and Lancs Chase winner if he wins the GC

[Wheels]

Re: Cheltenham 2012 : Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:34 pm  

Ranjaan OUT.