Shahzad & Tremlett are totally different types of bowler and that’s not really an either/or choice as I see it. Personally I’d have taken Shahzad instead of Bresnan, who to me is a “typical English county seamer” of the type unlikely to make much impact in Australian conditions. He did well in his Tests in Bangladesh last Winter, and omitting him now would admittedly be harsh, but conditions there couldn’t be more different.
For me Shahzad is a good alternative to Anderson, whereas Tremlett is clearly an alternative to Broad & Finn. After laughably being rested at the start of the season to “manage his workload” Tremlett came good and bowled plenty of overs with good strike & economy rates to finish well up near the top of the final First Class averages. Unlike most extremely tall bowlers he isn’t a beanpole, but a muscular well proportioned athlete. I’ve seen him regularly this year, and his combination of relentless accuracy and extreme lift off a good length at a decent speed make him a particularly awkward proposition for batsmen. Given that he should now be at his peak in his late twenties, and has already played a few Tests with fair success three years ago, it’s a no-brainer to take him now he’s been fully fit for a continuous period for the first time in ages. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me if he nudges Finn out of the Test XI, possibly even before the First Test at Brisbane.
Panesar has clearly been picked as an alternative to Swann in case of illness or injury, not as a potential second spinner. I wouldn’t want Rashid as the sole spinner in a Test XI in Australia when he’s completely untried. Whether he should have been tried already is another matter. Personally I’d like to see him get a game at 7, ostensibly as a lower middle order batsman, then he could act as fifth bowler/second spinner without any risk of weakening the bowling from what we’ve had recently, i.e. four front line bowlers. He’s the closest we’ve got to a genuine all-rounder of potential Test quality, certainly much more so than Luke Wright whose bowling is never really likely to be more use than Collingwood’s in Tests.
Frankly it beggars belief that Rashid isn’t even in the performance squad, from which James Harris of Glamorgan is almost an equally baffling omission.