Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 9:50 am  

Egg Chasing wrote:

You honestly believe we will finish in the bottom 4?

I wouldn’t discount it. We just don’t score enough points so potentially most games could go either way so if we lose more than we win it wouldn’t surprise me.

If we lose the next 3 games then the possibility would for me harden.

How many of the next 3 games do you you think we will win?

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 9:56 am  

MadDogg wrote:

My main concern is our lack of line breakers now that Field and French are out long term. Gildart and Marshall may help but in 2020 we were hugely reliant on Bevan French, both to break the line and to create space for others. This is why I was never a fan of Zak playing fullback long term even though some of the media were calling for it.

I agree our lack of as you say line breakers will be a major issue for the remainder of the season
Even with Marshall back there is no guarantee that he will retain his pace and if he does are we capable of utilising it?

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 10:50 am  

Itchy Arsenal wrote:

The next 3 games are Huddersfield HKR and Wakefield
I’d suggest a top 2 side should win all three
A top 6 side say 2 out of 3
A bottom 4 side probably 1 or nil

That’s an unbelievably simplistic view.

Warrington lost to Hudds and Cas but beat Catalans twice. It’s all swings and roundabouts in this poor league.

Catalans looked awful until they beat Hull. No doubt they will lose 2 of their next 3 games as well.

All you need to do is make the top 4 (ideally top 2) and then win a few close games and you are SL winners.

The main stickler in this league is injuries because the dirge in quality and salary cap means any side who gets 4 or 5 players out means they just can’t compete against a side with no injuries.

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 10:54 am  

Itchy Arsenal wrote:

I agree our lack of as you say line breakers will be a major issue for the remainder of the season
Even with Marshall back there is no guarantee that he will retain his pace and if he does are we capable of utilising it?

Yes and a particular concern with Marshall as that's his main strength.

Looks like Hanley will be at fullback now for the next 6 games or so - he'll provide some speed but we'll clearly have to accept the rough with the smooth.

I think we're likely to finish between 4th and 6th. Our best hope IMO is Jai Field returning in mid August.

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 10:56 am  

Wigg'n wrote:

That’s an unbelievably simplistic view.

Warrington lost to Hudds and Cas but beat Catalans twice. It’s all swings and roundabouts in this poor league.

All you need to do is make the top 4 (ideally top 2) and then win a few close games and you are SL winners.

The main stickler in this league is injuries because the dirge in quality and salary cap means any side who gets 4 or 5 players out means they just can’t compete against a side with no injuries.

It most certainly is but probably just as accurate as a “war and peace” analysis

How many wins do you forecast from our next 3 games?
How many games do you need to win against “lower” opposition to achieve a top 4 spot. I’d say the majority in fact the vast majority

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 11:27 am  

Itchy Arsenal wrote:

It most certainly is but probably just as accurate as a “war and peace” analysis

How many wins do you forecast from our next 3 games?
How many games do you need to win against “lower” opposition to achieve a top 4 spot. I’d say the majority in fact the vast majority

Probably 2 if not all 3 but like I said it’s less black and white when you have a load of injuries.

No coach or team in the world can carry on as normal with 7 of your starting 17 out with 5 or 6 of them in the backs which is where our squad is balanced towards.

Obviously you need to beat the lower teams to finish top 4. Currently there’s 4 or 5 of them so that makes up a large part of your calendar but winning 60% of your games will likely get you top 4 so we can afford to lose 9 or 10 games. Even if we lose every game against Saints, Wire and Catalans we can then still lose another 3 games and still make top 4.

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 12:23 pm  

Wigg'n wrote:

Probably 2 if not all 3 but like I said it’s less black and white when you have a load of injuries.

No coach or team in the world can carry on as normal with 7 of your starting 17 out with 5 or 6 of them in the backs which is where our squad is balanced towards.

Obviously you need to beat the lower teams to finish top 4. Currently there’s 4 or 5 of them so that makes up a large part of your calendar but winning 60% of your games will likely get you top 4 so we can afford to lose 9 or 10 games. Even if we lose every game against Saints, Wire and Catalans we can then still lose another 3 games and still make top 4.

I’m not a Lam fan by any stretch of the imagination but I agree with the number of long term injuries that we have has set this out as a very difficult season. With a full squad the next 3 games could have been winnable but with a depleted back line I’d be surprised if we win any of them.
I think that the following 2 games are Wire and Saints? We could be facing 6 losses on the bounce.

With a very weakened back line and a poor beatable pack I don’t think that there are any gimmes for the remainder of the season and a free fall wouldn’t surprise me. Lose the next 5 and can anyone really think that Lam can turn it around even if we get players back?

Do I think that we will finish in the bottom 4? Probably not but I suspect we will finish definitely lower than 4th. Time obviously will tell but next few weeks I suspect are going to be pretty torrid

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 1:59 pm  

The simplistic analysis for me is those who claim that because of the ever-diminishing standard of SL (zzzz...), we will anyway somehow fall into the GF alongside Saints pretty automatically. On the contrary, I would argue, we have not shown ourselves to be better than Hull, or Catalans, or Wire, and we only just managed to beat a depleted Leeds side. Meanwhile they tracked up 60 points this weekend, Why should we fancy our chances against an improving Hudds side? Who themselves got a bit of wake-up call this weekend.

It will be interesting to compare Lam and Hodgson's response to a defeat.

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 2:57 pm  

moto748 wrote:

The simplistic analysis for me is those who claim that because of the ever-diminishing standard of SL (zzzz...), we will anyway somehow fall into the GF alongside Saints pretty automatically. On the contrary, I would argue, we have not shown ourselves to be better than Hull, or Catalans, or Wire, and we only just managed to beat a depleted Leeds side. Meanwhile they tracked up 60 points this weekend, Why should we fancy our chances against an improving Hudds side? Who themselves got a bit of wake-up call this weekend.

It will be interesting to compare Lam and Hodgson's response to a defeat.

Because pretty much every year we come strong towards the end of the season while others disappear into nothing? Every year Catalans hammer a few teams and are spoken about as serious contenders but until that happens it's just talk. Same with Hull. When did they last make the GF? 2006?

Why shouldn't we fancy our chances against Huddersfield? They've beaten one decent team all season and are 9th in the table. If we can shut Sezer down that's 75% of the job done.

Re: 21 man squad to face Catalans Saturday : Mon May 31, 2021 4:03 pm  

A coach way way out of his depth and too many bang average players, myself certainly and i know quite a few others as well are in no rush to spend our hard earned money on the sh*te being served up!!