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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:12 am  
tank123 wrote:
SAGE member admitted on Saturday to a Spectator jurno that they sre only requested to model worst case scenario. They have been out massively everytime. Last prediction before October was 7k hospitalisation a day in October. Never topped 800. As you say model on 3 scenarios is needed otherwise its purely Gov propaganda.


Exactly. If I did my job like Professor Ferguson or highlighted graphs of the quality Whitty and Valance produce I would be sacked.
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:42 pm  
tank123 wrote:
SAGE member admitted on Saturday to a Spectator jurno that they sre only requested to model worst case scenario. They have been out massively everytime. Last prediction before October was 7k hospitalisation a day in October. Never topped 800. As you say model on 3 scenarios is needed otherwise its purely Gov propaganda.


The prediction you refer to was one of three scenarios at the time; they did exactly what you are saying they don't do.

Actual position was proadly in line with their best case, the worst case was flagged as extremely unlikely absent a new variant, which is what we have now.
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:59 pm  
FearTheVee wrote:
The prediction you refer to was one of three scenarios at the time; they did exactly what you are saying they don't do.

Actual position was proadly in line with their best case, the worst case was flagged as extremely unlikely absent a new variant, which is what we have now.


Have you read the article

Every prediction they make is way out. October's 7k a day hospitalisation. 5000k a day from Omicron. And allegedly 1 death worldwide. Their predictions are now getting questiond by cabinet.
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:48 pm  
tank123 wrote:
Have you read the article

Every prediction they make is way out. October's 7k a day hospitalisation. 5000k a day from Omicron. And allegedly 1 death worldwide. Their predictions are now getting questiond by cabinet.


For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks..........

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894
tank123 wrote:
Have you read the article

Every prediction they make is way out. October's 7k a day hospitalisation. 5000k a day from Omicron. And allegedly 1 death worldwide. Their predictions are now getting questiond by cabinet.


For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks..........

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:31 pm  
Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy wrote:
For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks..........

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894



Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee
Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy wrote:
For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks..........

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894



Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:33 pm  
Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy wrote:
For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks..........

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894


This is the quote I was going to reply with

"Science must guide Covid course to protect NHS from 'collapse' - health boss

As we've reported, the cabinet is meeting at the moment.

While we're waiting to hear what the outcome of that is, here are some comments from health bosses who have been warning of the mounting pressure on the NHS.

Patricia Marquis, England director at the Royal College of Nursing, calls on ministers to listen to "whatever the scientific advisers are saying" about the pattern of Omicron's spread and "the effect that it's having on people, their health and the health services" to ease off the pressure on the NHS.

The science needs to guide what comes next to protect the health service from what could be a "real collapse", she tells the BBC.

Meanwhile Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospital trusts, says pressure on London trusts, including hospitals, community mental health and ambulance trusts, has been "mounting rapidly" in the past week.

"The number of hospitalised Covid patients or patients who tested positive for Covid has gone up by 30% in a week, at a time when nationally it's only gone up by 4%," he tells Times Radio."

Anybody would think certain posters are only cherry pi King what they want to read despite criticising others and claiming that's what they do.

It's like criticism of lockdown or social distancing saying only "X" died
Or criticism of vaccines and vaccination programs or vaccine passports and saying either only "X" died etc. Or "X" vaccinated people are still passing it on when when vaccinated.

Imagine how bad it would have been if we hadn't locked down or had vaccines etc.
Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy wrote:
For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks..........

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894


This is the quote I was going to reply with

"Science must guide Covid course to protect NHS from 'collapse' - health boss

As we've reported, the cabinet is meeting at the moment.

While we're waiting to hear what the outcome of that is, here are some comments from health bosses who have been warning of the mounting pressure on the NHS.

Patricia Marquis, England director at the Royal College of Nursing, calls on ministers to listen to "whatever the scientific advisers are saying" about the pattern of Omicron's spread and "the effect that it's having on people, their health and the health services" to ease off the pressure on the NHS.

The science needs to guide what comes next to protect the health service from what could be a "real collapse", she tells the BBC.

Meanwhile Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospital trusts, says pressure on London trusts, including hospitals, community mental health and ambulance trusts, has been "mounting rapidly" in the past week.

"The number of hospitalised Covid patients or patients who tested positive for Covid has gone up by 30% in a week, at a time when nationally it's only gone up by 4%," he tells Times Radio."

Anybody would think certain posters are only cherry pi King what they want to read despite criticising others and claiming that's what they do.

It's like criticism of lockdown or social distancing saying only "X" died
Or criticism of vaccines and vaccination programs or vaccine passports and saying either only "X" died etc. Or "X" vaccinated people are still passing it on when when vaccinated.

Imagine how bad it would have been if we hadn't locked down or had vaccines etc.
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:48 pm  
tank123 wrote:
Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee


I haven't missed out anything - the Chair of Modelling has responded and basically said Nelson's talking poop and misrepresenting (surprise, surprise). Hmm who to believe in terms of mathematical modelling - a professor of infectious disease modelling or political hack with an agenda? Difficult one that.
tank123 wrote:
Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee


I haven't missed out anything - the Chair of Modelling has responded and basically said Nelson's talking poop and misrepresenting (surprise, surprise). Hmm who to believe in terms of mathematical modelling - a professor of infectious disease modelling or political hack with an agenda? Difficult one that.
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:04 pm  
Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy wrote:
I haven't missed out anything - the Chair of Modelling has responded and basically said Nelson's talking poop and misrepresenting (surprise, surprise). Hmm who to believe in terms of mathematical modelling - a professor of infectious disease modelling or political hack with an agenda? Difficult one that.


Twitter discussion is very informative between the 2. He is now trying to defend himself. Time for all scenarios to be given to the public. And not the one for fear.
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:12 pm  
tank123 wrote:
Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee


Honestly ?
Seriously?

You do understand what she was saying in the video WLA provided don't you and I would suggest what the guy in your link was trying to say don't you?

You do realise the difference between a scenario and a prediction don't you?

You do realise that bad scenarios are acted upon to avoid them coming true don't you ???

Anyway, you already have your own Answers I suspect, I'll let you get on with finding evidence to suit your pre decided answer.
tank123 wrote:
Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee


Honestly ?
Seriously?

You do understand what she was saying in the video WLA provided don't you and I would suggest what the guy in your link was trying to say don't you?

You do realise the difference between a scenario and a prediction don't you?

You do realise that bad scenarios are acted upon to avoid them coming true don't you ???

Anyway, you already have your own Answers I suspect, I'll let you get on with finding evidence to suit your pre decided answer.
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Re: Covid : Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:14 pm  
tank123 wrote:
Twitter discussion is very informative between the 2. He is now trying to defend himself. Time for all scenarios to be given to the public. And not the one for fear.


Which goes back to my original post and the explanation video by an expert of what actually happens.
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