Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 10:04 am  

MadDogg wrote:

Saints are capable of winning it with a fully fit squad from outside the top 2 IMO.

Not in mine. An away tie at Hull KR, Catalans or probably Warrington or Salford will in all likelihood see them out. They're relying on other teams having an off day. Do you honestly see anything in this current Saints team that suggests their best is better than Wigan's?

They could go through the playoffs meeting teams having an off day but it's unlikely.

Top 2 or forget it for mine. The sobering thought for them is that they're currently only 2 points from 5th and have a lot of tricky fixtures on the horizon.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 10:17 am  

NickyKiss wrote:

Without a doubt. They're still the biggest threat to Wigan and quite comfortably IMO when they're fully fit. The thing with Saints is, they're pretty dull to watch in the main, that's not me having a go, I think it's just a fact and their fans I think would agree in all honesty but at their best, they have a style of play that is extremely tough to break down, as we found out on Good Friday and it is ideal for Play Off rugby.

Put Wigan up against any other side in a big game currently and it's at least a 60/40 chance that we win IMO but against Saints, I think it's much closer. A lot will depend on both sides shape up fitness wise come the play offs mind. We have better depth and more trust in the young players we have (which only adds to that depth).

I know injuries can still play a part for all teams but Saints are never going to be "fully fit". I've said this repeatedly and I've seen nothing to change my mind.

Let's be honest here; they are reliant on Walmsley as the one player who could change things around for them. He isn't due back until August and takes quite a while following a long lay off to get back up to speed. By then it might even be too late for them.

It's worth remembering that, should we win the next 2 games*, we'll be 4 points ahead of the pack with a game in hand. That allows us more leeway to rest and rotate so the likelihood is we'll be going into the business end in better shape than a Saints team needing their best players to be flogged.

*I know there's an "if" there.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 10:45 am  

Phuzzy wrote:

Not in mine. An away tie at Hull KR, Catalans or probably Warrington or Salford will in all likelihood see them out. They're relying on other teams having an off day. Do you honestly see anything in this current Saints team that suggests their best is better than Wigan's?

They could go through the playoffs meeting teams having an off day but it's unlikely.

Top 2 or forget it for mine. The sobering thought for them is that they're currently only 2 points from 5th and have a lot of tricky fixtures on the horizon.

I still think they have a very powerful forward pack when all are fit. They're not capable of doing it over a full year any more but across 1 or 2 games I think they could still put it together.

If I was Wellens I'd gamble and start both Walmsley and Paasi in the playoffs to try and get on top early.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 10:55 am  

Phuzzy wrote:

I know injuries can still play a part for all teams but Saints are never going to be "fully fit". I've said this repeatedly and I've seen nothing to change my mind.

Let's be honest here; they are reliant on Walmsley as the one player who could change things around for them. He isn't due back until August and takes quite a while following a long lay off to get back up to speed. By then it might even be too late for them.

It's worth remembering that, should we win the next 2 games*, we'll be 4 points ahead of the pack with a game in hand. That allows us more leeway to rest and rotate so the likelihood is we'll be going into the business end in better shape than a Saints team needing their best players to be flogged.

*I know there's an "if" there.

It is unlikely they'll be fully fit, as in having every single player available and at 100% for the play offs but that probably goes for everyone. If they can get a fully fit spine out, along with Walmsley, Paasi, Knowles etc come the play offs, they'll be massively dangerous. Those games are just different to the week to week stuff and no other side has that experience like they do. Most play off games and grand finals are a war of attrition and a total grind and that's pretty much how Saints play every single week.

Just out of interest, if Saints aren't our biggest threat (presuming you don't think they are), who do you think are? There is no way we do to Saints what we did to HKR in the Cup and Play off semis and they wouldn't make things as easy as Wire did in the cup final. I can't see that this seasons Catalans would offer a bigger threat either, so that leaves Salford. They actually could shake things up if they were brave enough to keep play the expansive/off the cuff rugby they do in the weekly rounds but again, it's just so different in plays offs and especially Grand Finals.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 11:01 am  

NickyKiss wrote:

It is unlikely they'll be fully fit, as in having every single player available and at 100% for the play offs but that probably goes for everyone. If they can get a fully fit spine out, along with Walmsley, Paasi, Knowles etc come the play offs, they'll be massively dangerous. Those games are just different to the week to week stuff and no other side has that experience like they do. Most play off games and grand finals are a war of attrition and a total grind and that's pretty much how Saints play every single week.

Just out of interest, if Saints aren't our biggest threat (presuming you don't think they are), who do you think are? There is no way we do to Saints what we did to HKR in the Cup and Play off semis and they wouldn't make things as easy as Wire did in the cup final. I can't see that this seasons Catalans would offer a bigger threat either, so that leaves Salford. They actually could shake things up if they were brave enough to keep play the expansive/off the cuff rugby they do in the
weekly rounds but again, it's just so different in plays offs and especially Grand Finals.

Absolutely spot on. Our biggest chance is now the wet weather games come October when our game plan actually suits.

Its difficult to see past Wigan with their pace and depth of squad but anything can happen between now and the end of the season. French or Smith being out with a Thompson and O Neill say would have a big impact.

Phuzzy is spot on too with our away form and Walmsley taking time to get fit but if (and its a big if at the moment) we finish top 2 then we will at least have players back fresh and not flogged all season- Batchelor, Knowles, Whitley, Walmsley, Makinson etc.

The game at Wigan is going to be very interesting for a number of reasons.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 11:16 am  

Stu M wrote:

Absolutely spot on. Our biggest chance is now the wet weather games come October when our game plan actually suits.

Its difficult to see past Wigan with their pace and depth of squad but anything can happen between now and the end of the season. French or Smith being out with a Thompson and O Neill say would have a big impact.

Phuzzy is spot on too with our away form and Walmsley taking time to get fit but if (and its a big if at the moment) we finish top 2 then we will at least have players back fresh and not flogged all season- Batchelor, Knowles, Whitley, Walmsley, Makinson etc.

The game at Wigan is going to be very interesting for a number of reasons.

What are your thoughts Stu? Do you think a top 2 finish likely? I know anything is possible but I can't see it with your fixture list personally. As you say, the Wigan game is pivotal. Lose that and I think you'll struggle.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 11:24 am  

Phuzzy wrote:

What are your thoughts Stu? Do you think a top 2 finish likely? I know anything is possible but I can't see it with your fixture list personally. As you say, the Wigan game is pivotal. Lose that and I think you'll struggle.

I can't see it no not with our fixtures left. We have some really tricky ones and as you allude to our away form is not the best against the big sides in particular. This is why the timing of Wellens contract extension is tricky for the club because the longer they leave it, the more they will get a backlash if indeed we do lose a couple more in the next few weeks.

In some ways he was left with an ageing squad and a hard task but on the other hand he has been very naive and made a lot of mistakes- persisting with Bennison is one.

We suffered the occasional hammering under Woolf- Salford away- funnily enough- in 2022 was a particularly bad defeat but its hard to imagine as many defeats this season under Woolf even with the same squad.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 11:25 am  

Phuzzy wrote:

I know injuries can still play a part for all teams but Saints are never going to be "fully fit". I've said this repeatedly and I've seen nothing to change my mind.

Let's be honest here; they are reliant on Walmsley as the one player who could change things around for them. He isn't due back until August and takes quite a while following a long lay off to get back up to speed. By then it might even be too late for them.

It's worth remembering that, should we win the next 2 games*, we'll be 4 points ahead of the pack with a game in hand. That allows us more leeway to rest and rotate so the likelihood is we'll be going into the business end in better shape than a Saints team needing their best players to be flogged.

*I know there's an "if" there.

I think we're in danger of over-doing this. They're not going to have a properly fully fit squad, but they've got Walmsley, Lomax, Knowles, Whitley, Wingfield, Makinson & Batchelor to add to yesterday's squad. The law of averages suggests that they'll lose a couple too, but they could very easily go into the play offs without needing to play dead-weights like Bennison or have squaddies on the bench who Wellens won't play.

Having players who have been there and done it counts for a lot, and I'd say Saints getting us in an arm wrestle is still the most likely way to prevent us from winning again at OT.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 11:38 am  

NickyKiss wrote:

It is unlikely they'll be fully fit, as in having every single player available and at 100% for the play offs but that probably goes for everyone. If they can get a fully fit spine out, along with Walmsley, Paasi, Knowles etc come the play offs, they'll be massively dangerous. Those games are just different to the week to week stuff and no other side has that experience like they do. Most play off games and grand finals are a war of attrition and a total grind and that's pretty much how Saints play every single week.

Just out of interest, if Saints aren't our biggest threat (presuming you don't think they are), who do you think are? There is no way we do to Saints what we did to HKR in the Cup and Play off semis and they wouldn't make things as easy as Wire did in the cup final. I can't see that this seasons Catalans would offer a bigger threat either, so that leaves Salford. They actually could shake things up if they were brave enough to keep play the expansive/off the cuff rugby they do in the weekly rounds but again, it's just so different in plays offs and especially Grand Finals.

To answer the last part first, I think you've sort of got my thinking in your comments on Salford. It's not just them though. I think the same goes for Hull KR and Warrington. They're all "if it sticks" type teams and all 3 are more dangerous than Saints when on. You're right in that we probably wouldn't do to Saints what we did to Hull KR in the semi but equally Saints wouldn't do to us what KR did at their place. I think I'd be more confident going into a playoff game against Saints knowing what we're going to get and knowing that we have the game to beat it than going up against KR, Salford or Warrington and knowing that, if it sticks, anything could happen.

On the first part; I agree their pack is still good at full strength but, as I say, I don't think it will be. Walmsley won't be the same player straight off and, if previous long lay offs are anything to go by, there's no guarantee he'll get back there this season. Of course he may do but it's certainly not a given. Paasi is still working his way back into it and the early signs are encouraging. We still have no way to know if he'll ever regain the full destructive form that he had pre injury. He wouldn't be the first if he didn't. He only need look behind him to Dodd for an example of a player who hasn't regardless of the number of games he's played. Mata'utia isn't the 2nd rower he was, mainly due to being bulked up to play prop. Still a good player though. Bachelor is a shadow of what he was and there's been no indication he's anywhere close to regaining his form. Sironen, great player though he is, is being flogged. Lees, Delaney and Clark are also being flogged. Mbye reverting to bench Hooker will help Clark but Wellens will continue to flog Lees. He just does. These players all ran out of gas last year and they've got a very tough run in after next week. No reason to suspect it will be any different this year.

And all that is assuming they won't pick up any further injuries, players coming back will not get reinjured and that they'll be at there best come the playoffs, all of which I think is unlikely. Certainly no more so than any other team anyway. I'm not sure why we keep saying referencing Saints as if they're going to be fully fit and in form but refer to other teams at their worst. It doesn't make sense.

Re: Wigan v Sts discussion - THIS THREAD ONLY PLEASE : Mon Jun 24, 2024 11:57 am  

Cherry_&_White wrote:

I think we're in danger of over-doing this. They're not going to have a properly fully fit squad, but they've got Walmsley, Lomax, Knowles, Whitley, Wingfield, Makinson & Batchelor to add to yesterday's squad. The law of averages suggests that they'll lose a couple too, but they could very easily go into the play offs without needing to play dead-weights like Bennison or have squaddies on the bench who Wellens won't play.

Having players who have been there and done it counts for a lot, and I'd say Saints getting us in an arm wrestle is still the most likely way to prevent us from winning again at OT.

Just on the players coming back; I've already covered my thoughts on a few in my answer to NK but you mention a couple others above so I'll address those.

Most Saints fans have thought Lomax has been a cause of their poor attacking form and, until yesterday at least, most have noted that they're actually better with Mbye in the halves. Mbye wouldn't get close to our team. He wouldn't be Hooker over O'Neil, interchange Hooker over Leeming or half over Smith or French. The best he could hope for would be back up half/Hooker instead of Hampshire. Lomax hasn't been as good as Mbye this year. Let that sink in a minute. I'm not sure how his return will suddenly galvanise them into something they aren't already. It could even make them worse again.

Whitely doesn't make the team if everyone is fit. He may take a bench spot which would be better than the dead wood that currently inhabit them. It's not going to win them a title though.

Makinson is better than Bennison so that will improve them. I have personal knowledge of plantar fasciitis though and there's no guarantees regarding his return to fitness. He could aggravate it in his first carry back. He may not. We'll see.

Knowles will add to them defensively but they lose in attack. That means using a sub spot for Bell. You're then relying on Knowles as a prop and I'm less convinced he adds to them from that position.

Wingfield will add squad depth, nothing more.

I'm not sure there's anything there that significantly changes the synopsis. And that, as you say, isn't allowing for further injuries.

Ateotd their backs aren't good enough to win the title. Just my opinion, of course.