Re: Today's big decision : Fri Jan 17, 2014 11:39 pm  

gutterfax wrote:

Is that the fans of the 14 teams SL, the 12 team one or the eventual 8 team one

To be fair, the current licensing ideology and structure had already led to an 8 team one, of which half of those were only ever making up the numbers.

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:14 am  

Again a lot of the arguements about blow out scores, seem to be based on the current position financially. ie £1.8 million cap in SL and £300,000 in the championship. So the nay sayers are quoting this saying that CC games overwhelmingly prove that scores will be blow outs. But this is not the case. Some scores have been very close. And in the new structure, the gap would not be so vast. It would be clubs spending £900,000 against those spending most likely less than £1.8 (more likely £1.2 - £1.5) At this point a team that can run Cas close, now getting 3 times the spending power, makes the game a lot different. Some people have often said that P+R should be a playoff between the bottom team in SL and the top Championship team. Well this is that, but with a longer run in, so it will take more than one lucky day to get into SL. Also for those who say a league split is not possible and is done no where else. Well that is not exactly true though is it. Whilst this format is unique. There is a long standing example of teams being knocked out of a league to play in a lower competition. And you know what. The fans don't stop going and they don't bitch and whine or threaten to stop following the sport. The competition is known as the UEFA Champions League. It's a little known competiton for that small sport of football. After teams play each other home and away, some are knocked out, some progress to a play off and others drop down into a 2nd tier competition called the Europa League. And you know what winning that Europa League is still seen as something worth while and the fans celebrate. They don't go nah not turning up for a 2nd rate competition. But of course that's a one off....... Or is it.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Challenge_Cup Funnily enough RU also have a European competition and yes they to split teams out of the competition into a lower one. Funny that! But we are RL and we can't do that. No! It's beyond our fragile little minds to comprehend that actually winning a 2nd tier comp is still something the public can buy into.

Again a lot of the arguements about blow out scores, seem to be based on the current position financially. ie £1.8 million cap in SL and £300,000 in the championship. So the nay sayers are quoting this saying that CC games overwhelmingly prove that scores will be blow outs. But this is not the case. Some scores have been very close. And in the new structure, the gap would not be so vast. It would be clubs spending £900,000 against those spending most likely less than £1.8 (more likely £1.2 - £1.5) At this point a team that can run Cas close, now getting 3 times the spending power, makes the game a lot different. Some people have often said that P+R should be a playoff between the bottom team in SL and the top Championship team. Well this is that, but with a longer run in, so it will take more than one lucky day to get into SL. Also for those who say a league split is not possible and is done no where else. Well that is not exactly true though is it. Whilst this format is unique. There is a long standing example of teams being knocked out of a league to play in a lower competition. And you know what. The fans don't stop going and they don't bitch and whine or threaten to stop following the sport. The competition is known as the UEFA Champions League. It's a little known competiton for that small sport of football. After teams play each other home and away, some are knocked out, some progress to a play off and others drop down into a 2nd tier competition called the Europa League. And you know what winning that Europa League is still seen as something worth while and the fans celebrate. They don't go nah not turning up for a 2nd rate competition. But of course that's a one off....... Or is it.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Challenge_Cup Funnily enough RU also have a European competition and yes they to split teams out of the competition into a lower one. Funny that! But we are RL and we can't do that. No! It's beyond our fragile little minds to comprehend that actually winning a 2nd tier comp is still something the public can buy into.

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:31 am  

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:41 am  

For those wishing to vote on the new system. Have your say here. viewtopic.php?f=2&t=563324&p=17680603&tsmp=1390005563#p17680603 It's pretty close ATM.

For those wishing to vote on the new system. Have your say here. viewtopic.php?f=2&t=563324&p=17680603&tsmp=1390005563#p17680603 It's pretty close ATM.

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:43 am  

LOL - 35 votes is hardly representative of the Rugby League sporting public!!!!

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:50 am  

bewareshadows wrote:

It's beyond our fragile little minds to comprehend that actually winning a 2nd tier comp is still something the public can buy into.

Agree with what you say, and understand what youre trying to get at.

The problem is in that last sentence, the word can. Is it possible that people buy into it, but for whatever reason the rl community are generally quite negative, and teams have been struggling to sell season tickets for super league on the cheap for years, this next level of "secondrateness" means it will only get worse. Ultimately a lot of people want something for nothing these days, and I just can't see how a club who has to basically give away season tickets for 27 games against the top competition is going to do any better selling 23 and then probably 7 against the teams a league lower.

And ultimately what's the prize of winning that middle league going to be in 5 - 10 years? Playing against the top 8? If they had any sense about them the sponsorship, facilities, youth systems and crowds are going to be far superior - so the gap between bottom of super league and championship is smaller, but the gap between top 8 and the rest will be far larger - you can't close a gap without creating another one. There needs to be some level of prestige to it.

Say 2 teams are 1st and 2nd in this middle league with 1 point between them for the final game where they play each other, all the attention is on whose finishing 4th and 5th as that's the playoff - where is the incentive to both go at it to win that group? If they are both safe, it's mission accomplished

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 1:09 am  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

Agree with what you say, and understand what youre trying to get at.

The problem is in that last sentence, the word can. Is it possible that people buy into it, but for whatever reason the rl community are generally quite negative, and teams have been struggling to sell season tickets for super league on the cheap for years, this next level of "secondrateness" means it will only get worse.

This is an assumption and it's what I've been taking issue with all day.
There are issues, season tickets and the league split and how you price that in is one.
The other is the middle 8 starting from zero, specifically eradicating a teams gains through the season from 9th in SL1 and 1st in SL2.

They are my two main worries, but when people make definitive statements like 'means it will' or 'the RFL have killed the game' or that 'people won't turn up'. These are not statements of fact as they are being written, but opinions based on the persons view point, that they are trying to make.

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

Ultimately a lot of people want something for nothing these days, and I just can't see how a club who has to basically give away season tickets for 27 games against the top competition is going to do any better selling 23 and then probably 7 against the teams a league lower.

And ultimately what's the prize of winning that middle league going to be in 5 - 10 years?

Ok truely the way I see it, is that over time there should be a larger pool of FT pro RL players. In the top 12 as presently with the bulk of the TV money, but spreading out into the top 14 - 16, along with they having some PT player the further down the system you go.

I would also expect clubs like Toulouse and Wrexham to make a bid at some point to get into the top flight.

I see this as a pathway for expansion, getting rid of this policy of making a SL club overnight, with no real fan base to build on.

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

Playing against the top 8? If they had any sense about them the sponsorship, facilities, youth systems and crowds are going to be far superior - so the gap between bottom of super league and championship is smaller, but the gap between top 8 and the rest will be far larger - you can't close a gap without creating another one. There needs to be some level of prestige to it.

Say 2 teams are 1st and 2nd in this middle league with 1 point between them for the final game where they play each other, all the attention is on whose finishing 4th and 5th as that's the playoff - where is the incentive to both go at it to win that group? If they are both safe, it's mission accomplished

But at what point will they be safe???
There are 7 games so for the top team to be safe they must win 4.

(I think, I've not run the maths on it, but I think 4 wins are needed to be certain of safety. Depending on other results. If you look at Champions league though it's not that simple as Arsenal this year got more points than any other GB team, but still did not know they were safe till the last game)

Now you may say well they could do that in 4 games if they play all the SL2 teams one after the other. But I would imagine it will be more mixed. So in terms of getting to safety of 4 wins minimum. It will take I imagine at least 5 games. Well there are only 2 other games left before season ends. Below that top team 2nd and 3rd could take up to week 7 before they know they are safe.

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 1:29 am  

bewareshadows wrote:

This is an assumption and it's what I've been taking issue with all day.
There are issues, season tickets and the league split and how you price that in is one.
The other is the middle 8 starting from zero, specifically eradicating a teams gains through the season from 9th in SL1 and 1st in SL2.

They are my two main worries, but when people make definitive statements like 'means it will' or 'the RFL have killed the game' or that 'people won't turn up'. These are not statements of fact as they are being written, but opinions based on the persons view point, that they are trying to make.

Ok truely the way I see it, is that over time there should be a larger pool of FT pro RL players. In the top 12 as presently with the bulk of the TV money, but spreading out into the top 14 - 16, along with they having some PT player the further down the system you go.

I would also expect clubs like Toulouse and Wrexham to make a bid at some point to get into the top flight.

I see this as a pathway for expansion, getting rid of this policy of making a SL club overnight, with no real fan base to build on.


But at what point will they be safe???
There are 7 games so for the top team to be safe they must win 4.

(I think, I've not run the maths on it, but I think 4 wins are needed to be certain of safety. Depending on other results. If you look at Champions league though it's not that simple as Arsenal this year got more points than any other GB team, but still did not know they were safe till the last game)

Now you may say well they could do that in 4 games if they play all the SL2 teams one after the other. But I would imagine it will be more mixed. So in terms of getting to safety of 4 wins minimum. It will take I imagine at least 5 games. Well there are only 2 other games left before season ends. Below that top team 2nd and 3rd could take up to week 7 before they know they are safe.

Fir play, my apologies for posting it in such a way (it's been a long day!) - I don't think the rfl has killed the game, and they are at least trying to address some of the issues that people have said to them (which is good) - the way I see it the problem is it has raised as many issues as it solved.

I think the tv money will be spread to more areas, BUT sponsorship, crowds and player development are all going to be dramatically improved (in theory) by ensuring your one of the 8 top clubs.

Saints could play wigan 3 - 6 times under the new system, as opposed 2 - 6 (and to get the 6 was far less likely) and as much as fans complain about derbies being over played, it's still more than likely to bring in 15 - 18 k a game, dramatically skewing the money coming in - great for saints and Wigan, and in all likelyhood higher than if a bottom 4 club were competing (I don't think that's too far an assumption!)

I think my main concern is keeping the number of fully full time clubs at least equal as it is now, if Bradford go tp but fax go full time fine - but my concern is it'll do nothing but drag the bottom 4 down to semi pro, with no one really stepping up to take their place.

I can run the numbers tomorrow, but I imagine it's is quite possible for teams to be safe with 1 or 2 games to go. I feel like for it to stand a chance for people to really buy into it, it needs something to make playing to the very end worthwhile, otherwise as you say, it's win 4 games then shrug your shoulders, great for the teams if it means promotion, but if it doesn't it means you're precisely where you started,

Give the winners of the second tier 2 points to start the new season

Like I say, I'm willing to give it a try ( I'm willing to give anything a try at this point) I just want to pick something and run with it long term!

My greater concern is - does this mean the September proposals went through? Because that would be very bad for academy's ( though I do like the home grown cap value ... Cap)

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 1:47 am  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

Fir play, my apologies for posting it in such a way (it's been a long day!) - I don't think the rfl has killed the game, and they are at least trying to address some of the issues that people have said to them (which is good) - the way I see it the problem is it has raised as many issues as it solved.

I think the tv money will be spread to more areas, BUT sponsorship, crowds and player development are all going to be dramatically improved (in theory) by ensuring your one of the 8 top clubs.

I agree, but it has always been this way the rich get richer. The top teams get the best of everything. It's what always happened. It will still take a backer like Koukash to break the top teams.

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

Saints could play wigan 3 - 6 times under the new system, as opposed 2 - 6 (and to get the 6 was far less likely) and as much as fans complain about derbies being over played, it's still more than likely to bring in 15 - 18 k a game, dramatically skewing the money coming in - great for saints and Wigan, and in all likelyhood higher than if a bottom 4 club were competing (I don't think that's too far an assumption!)

I agree it will skew the money. But then we can't have it all ways. The top clubs are begging for more money. If it was not this way, then in a straight 12 by 12 system they would take it through TV revenue. Also why should we stop them getting more money. Championship clubs will be getting more money too, by not having a closed shop above them.

I've addressed the odds on repeat games elsewhere, but in short playing someone 6 times under this system is less likely. Playing someone 2 or 4 times is the same. Playing some one 3 or 5 times would be more likely. Basically league, CC and MW games keep fixed odds across both systems. Hence 2 and 4 games equal odds.
6 times should be reduced odds with a top 4 play off rather than top 8.
3 and 5 times is increased as if you are in the top 8 you will play another match against them.
I think that's pretty solid!

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

I think my main concern is keeping the number of fully full time clubs at least equal as it is now, if Bradford go tp but fax go full time fine - but my concern is it'll do nothing but drag the bottom 4 down to semi pro, with no one really stepping up to take their place.

Ok I think I did not explain what I was thinking. SL1 clubs I imagine would stay FT, whoever they are.
Currently what will be SL2 clubs play part time, but with more funding and more spending power. Those clubs should be able to increase their number of FT players. So where as they may have a few FT players at present. We maybe looking at those clubs now having more or less a starting 13 of FT players. Not on day one in 2015 but over the 3 years gradually increasing (IF there revenues do with crowds and central funding etc).

If this did not happen then for me that is where we have to take stock.

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

I can run the numbers tomorrow, but I imagine it's is quite possible for teams to be safe with 1 or 2 games to go. I feel like for it to stand a chance for people to really buy into it, it needs something to make playing to the very end worthwhile, otherwise as you say, it's win 4 games then shrug your shoulders, great for the teams if it means promotion, but if it doesn't it means you're precisely where you started,

I think 1 team could do it in 5 matches. But I think with only 7 games on the last day some will still be in the mix.

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

Give the winners of the second tier 2 points to start the new season

Like I say, I'm willing to give it a try ( I'm willing to give anything a try at this point) I just want to pick something and run with it long term!

My greater concern is - does this mean the September proposals went through? Because that would be very bad for academy's ( though I do like the home grown cap value ... Cap)

I agree 100% here. The quota for overseas should not be increased and if it is. There should be a plan to reduce it back to it's current level. 5 non-fed players is enough for any side.

Re: Today's big decision : Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:02 am  

bewareshadows wrote:

I agree, but it has always been this way the rich get richer. The top teams get the best of everything. It's what always happened. It will still take a backer like Koukash to break the top teams.

I agree it will skew the money. But then we can't have it all ways. The top clubs are begging for more money. If it was not this way, then in a straight 12 by 12 system they would take it through TV revenue. Also why should we stop them getting more money. Championship clubs will be getting more money too, by not having a closed shop above them.

I've addressed the odds on repeat games elsewhere, but in short playing someone 6 times under this system is less likely. Playing someone 2 or 4 times is the same. Playing some one 3 or 5 times would be more likely. Basically league, CC and MW games keep fixed odds across both systems. Hence 2 and 4 games equal odds.
6 times should be reduced odds with a top 4 play off rather than top 8.
3 and 5 times is increased as if you are in the top 8 you will play another match against them.
I think that's pretty solid!

Ok I think I did not explain what I was thinking. SL1 clubs I imagine would stay FT, whoever they are.
Currently what will be SL2 clubs play part time, but with more funding and more spending power. Those clubs should be able to increase their number of FT players. So where as they may have a few FT players at present. We maybe looking at those clubs now having more or less a starting 13 of FT players. Not on day one in 2015 but over the 3 years gradually increasing (IF there revenues do with crowds and central funding etc).

If this did not happen then for me that is where we have to take stock.

I think 1 team could do it in 5 matches. But I think with only 7 games on the last day some will still be in the mix.

I agree 100% here. The quota for overseas should not be increased and if it is. There should be a plan to reduce it back to it's current level. 5 non-fed players is enough for any side.

I literally just finished replying to your repeat games post! Basically the same arguments are happening all over the place. It's actually very interesting, I don't think I've ever seen something divide fans so evenly (and strongly) - the strange thing is it doesn't seem to matter from what teams perspective it's coming from, it still seems split!

A rich backer will always help teams to accelerate to the top, I agree. My concern is, that the split will accelerate the process. Whilst it's not easy to break the 8 without a backer, I still feel it's possible. If we have the split, and a club misses out on the extra income of higher attendences for 2 - 3 years, they'll probably lose that competitive edge, making it all the harder for them to try and claw back in. I guess I just don't want the 8 to essential become it's own league within a league!

as for stats my heads fuzzy from doing them all day! One thing I did remember whilst responding to the games repeats is: no more club call! Hooray!

I think this is where the split comes I think, looking from the championship clubs pushing up, they should be much more able to support more full time players I agree. The other view is seeing the bottom of super league down and wondering if they can still support the same number of full time players - meaning the number of full time players either a) remains the same, spread over more clubs or b) drops slightly, as the Low super league clubs have to remove full time players faster than championship clubs can take them.

I'm certainly not saying that a situation where a team were home and dry would happen every year, (man utd won the premiership with ages left last season) and if it all came down to the last day it would be fascinating, but I'd still want some sort of prestige element to it, just so the club has something to build on, to get out of that league next year - and should help fans take to the idea of being the best of the middle.