Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sat Aug 10, 2013 12:10 am  

Starbug wrote: And you believe this? It must be true because Nigel Wood also says so... "2013 will see more commercial revenue flow into the sport than at any time before and we are well placed to make the most of the opportunities that lie ahead" No title sponsor, no problem says Rugby Football League boss!

Starbug wrote: And you believe this? It must be true because Nigel Wood also says so... "2013 will see more commercial revenue flow into the sport than at any time before and we are well placed to make the most of the opportunities that lie ahead" No title sponsor, no problem says Rugby Football League boss!

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:56 am  

Smokey doesn't speculate. Smokey only deals in facts and what the RFL tell him. Why should he do anything else? His ramblings are only as good as the facts he has on the table and what the professionals tell him. I felt his pain when grade B licence holders Bradford collapsed six months after KPMG rubber stamped their bid. To his credit though his forum back peddling was as smooth as any high wire unicycle circus act.

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:15 am  

Starbug wrote:

And you believe this?

I think they will be covered by including RLWC revenues

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:58 am  

William, Re Saints Crowd last night:

13k last year for this fixture was exceptional and 3k higher than the next highest attendance since 2000.
The crowd last night was higher than any equivalent crowd for this fixture bar 2010 and 2012 and I would bet the third highest ever attendance for this league fixture.

Looking back, neglecting last years exceptional attendance and the attendance for 2011 when Saints were playing at Widnes, the decrease is 4.5%. 2010 was an exceptional season as it was the last season at Knowsley road, plus Saints had a much more competitive season. Looking back at the corresponding fixture in 2009, we see a rise of 6% on the corresponding fixture in 2013.

The point I'm trying to make is that in order to analyse a trend you need to look at the longterm moving average, not an isolated case. Statistically you can't make sweeping statements about trends and only back your point up by one isolated case 2012 - 2013, you need to look at the longterm trend to smooth out statistical blips, like teams moving into a new ground, stockmarket crashes, whatever. Taking a 3 point moving average, which is a pretty common statistical technique, the trend is inexorably to rise.

The only way that you're going to put your argument to bed is to look at the complete aggregate attendances for rugby league, IE the total no. of people in each given season that went through a turnstile. I would suggest taking a period from 1980 to 2013, that way you have a good snapshot (a similar length of time) from prior to Superleague. You could break aggregates down per competition to back up the points on Cup attendances. It might be worth hiving off Lancashire and Yorkshire cup comps as well as they'll distort the statistics. It would be worth recording them for comparison though.

My prediction is that if you just take aggregates for regular league, premiership and challenge cup to roughly compare like with like, the total no. of individual turnstile clicks for RL matches will be to slowly rise since 1996. The data will probably show that the attendance at second and third tier matches has declined as has that for the challenge cup, but the rise in SL attendances will make up with that. I would love to be proven wrong though! I would do this myself, but I don't have the data, but I bet some statto has all the required Rothams books to do the calcs. Once someone has put together the spreadsheet, as a service to RL I'm happy to use my software engineering skills to put this data up online in a queryable database for the general public to peruse!

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sat Aug 10, 2013 9:07 am  

I doubt the attendances are that much different outside of SL. If you took the biggest clubs out of div 1&2 who had been relegated from SLtbe year previously out then crowds would be similar. I certainly remember going toRovers in div3 with sub 1000 crowds and mostly sub 2000 crowds in div2 and we were one of the best supported clubs in those leagues.

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sat Aug 10, 2013 9:30 am  

I agree JB. I recall attendances in the lower leagues being pretty underwhelming when I first started following the game. Certainly only Keighley were pulling them in in half decent numbers.

I think a-lot of folk have rose tinted glasses about times gone by and tend to remember the 60s. The 70s were pretty dire and unless you were a Wigan fan, so were the 80s and early 90s. Things are not brilliant at the moment as media profile of the game is well down compared to 20 years ago and the international game is appalling, but attendances, quality of the teams and stadia has taken a massive leap forward.

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:03 am  

Starbug wrote:

And you believe this?

What's the alternative? Invent something, lie, or make it up?

Sorry I forgot who I was talking to.............

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:06 am  

littlerich wrote:

Smokey doesn't speculate. Smokey only deals in facts and what the RFL tell him. Why should he do anything else? His ramblings are only as good as the facts he has on the table and what the professionals tell him. I felt his pain when grade B licence holders Bradford collapsed six months after KPMG rubber stamped their bid. To his credit though his forum back peddling was as smooth as any high wire unicycle circus act.

It's a better plan than just falling for the ramblings of a lonely attention whore like billy

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sun Aug 11, 2013 4:48 pm  

SL Round 24 attendances - comparison to same fixtures last year

Salford V Leeds in 2013 = 3,235
Salford V Leeds in 2012 = 6,891
% decrease = -53.05%

St Helens V London in 2013 = 9,926
St Helens V London in 2012 = 13,262
% decrease = -25.15%

Wigan V Huddersfield in 2013 = 19,620
Wigan V Huddersfield in 2012 = 16,771
% increase = +16.99%

Warrington V Wakefield in 2013 = 9,250
Warrington V Wakefield in 2012 = 10,686
% decrease = -13.44%

Bradford V Catalan in 2013 = 7,850
Bradford V Catalan in 2012 = 10,610
% decrease = -26.01%

Hull KR V Hull in 2013 = 8,874
Hull KR V Hull in 2012 = 9,086
% decrease = -2.33%

Widnes V Castleford in 2013 = 5,155
Widnes V Castleford in 2012 = 4,501
% increase = +14.53%

Total Attendance in SL Round 24 = 63,910 (Avg: 9,130)
Total Attendance same fixtures last year = 71,807 (Avg: 10,258)
% decrease = -11.00%

**********************
19,620 at the Wigan V Huddersfield game was the attendance highlight of the round, thanks to offers from Heinz which provided 5 tickets for £30, Groupon which provided 4 tickets for £29 and freebies to bump up the numbers. Bradford's 'Bring a Buddy for £5" may have made an impact on their attendance today but it was still down by over 26% on the corresponding fixture last year.

**********************
2 out of 7 fixtures in Round 24 have shown an increase in attendance compared to the same SL fixtures last year. 5 out of 7 fixtures in Round 24 have shown a decrease in attendance compared to the same SL fixtures last year.

**********************
Out of 161 fixtures played thus far in 2013 (not including magic weekend fixtures), 41 out of 161 have shown an increase in attendance compared to the corresponding SL fixtures last year. 120 out of 161 fixtures have shown a decrease in attendance compared to the corresponding SL fixtures last year.

Re: Opening SL weekend sees attendances tumbling by 12.66% : Sun Aug 11, 2013 4:51 pm  

Round 1 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 64,387 (Avg: 9,198)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 63,376 (Avg: 9,054)
% increase = +1.59%

Round 2 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 69,809 (Avg: 9,973)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 71,989 (Avg: 10,284)
% decrease = -3.03%

Round 3 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 58,711 (Avg: 8,387)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 71,246 (Avg: 10,178)
% decrease = -17.59%

Round 4 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 58,948 (Avg: 8,421)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 68,803 (Avg: 9,829)
% decrease = -14.32%

Round 5 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 50,207 (Avg: 7,172)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 57,593 (Avg: 8,228)
% decrease = -12.82%

Round 6 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 67,079 (Avg: 9,583)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 71,439 (Avg: 10,206)
% decrease = -6.10%

Round 7 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 57,048 (Avg: 8,150)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 69,941 (Avg: 9,992)
% decrease = -18.43%

Round 8 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 52,247 (Avg: 7,464)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 69,575 (Avg: 9,939)
% decrease = -24.91%

Round 9 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 80,429 (Avg: 11,490)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 81,841 (Avg: 11,692)
% decrease = -1.73%

Round 10 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 57,882 (Avg: 8,269)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 71,601 (Avg: 10,229)
% decrease = -19.16%

Round 11 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 55,117 (Avg: 7,874)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 62,013 (Avg: 8,859)
% decrease = -11.12%

Round 12 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 53,477 (Avg: 7,640)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 63,337 (Avg: 9,048)
% decrease = -15.57%

Round 13 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 49,525 (Avg: 7,075)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 59,648 (Avg: 8,521)
% decrease = -16.97%

Round 14 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 68,617 (Avg: 9,802)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 80,737 (Avg: 11,534)
% decrease = -15.01%

Round 15 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 53,274 (Avg: 7,611)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 57,921 (Avg: 8,274)
% decrease = -8.02%

Round 16 MAGIC WEEKEND Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 62,042 (Avg: 8,863)
Total attendance at same event in 2012 = 63,716 (Avg: 9,102)
% decrease = -2.63%

Round 17 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 48,752 (Avg: 6,965)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 54,966 (Avg: 7,852)
% decrease = -11.31%

Round 18 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 55,384 (Avg: 7,912)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 56,180 (Avg: 8,026)
% decrease = -1.42%

Round 19 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 62,239 (Avg: 8,891)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 60,958 (Avg: 8,708)
% increase = +2.10%

Round 20 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 55,617 (Avg: 7,945)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 62,218 (Avg: 8,888)
% decrease = -10.61%

Round 21 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 64,512 (Avg: 9,216)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 71,206 (Avg: 10,172)
% decrease = -9.40%

Round 22 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 63,146 (Avg: 9,021)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 71,188 (Avg: 10,170)
% decrease = -11.30%

Round 23 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 53,062 (Avg: 7,580)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 59,266 (Avg: 8,467)
% decrease = -10.47%

Round 24 Fixtures (7 in total)
Total attendance in 2013 = 63,910 (Avg: 9,130)
Total attendance for same fixtures in 2012 = 71,807 (Avg: 10,258)
% decrease = -11.00%

Rounds 1 to 24 Fixtures (168 in total)
Total attendance for 161 fixtures plus 7 MAGIC fixtures in 2013 = 1,425,421 (Avg: 8,485)
Total attendance for same 161 fixtures plus 7 MAGIC fixtures in 2012 = 1,592,565 (Avg: 9,480)
Cumulative attendance loss = 167,144
% decrease = -10.50%