: Fri Apr 24, 2009 1:56 pm
dixie wrote:
I'm going 2moro night for some silly reason. Still not been to a game they have won yet.
Good man!
dixie wrote:
FA, FWIW, your post clearly implied that it would be good to bet on the Bulls cause they JUST beat Leeds. ME was just point out that since JUST beating Leeds they got beat by Wakefield and hammered at home. Makes the bet less of a good deal.
You misunderstand. The
bookies are the ones that make these odds, and they are the ones that take the form into account.
Whereas my point is, form was (by definition) irrelevant in those cases where a big outsider causes a major upset, as they regularly do!
The point is, self-evidently, the past or even recent form isn't going to help you much to predict an upset. But such upsets do regularly happen!
dixie wrote:
I still don't feel that odds on a rugby game, match that of a two horse race.
..
I was using "two horse race" as a cliche and not specifically referring to horses. But there are many similarites, though. SL teams, like horses, do not tend to be entered to compete in events which it is impossible for them to win.
And I'd say it is much easier to get an upset in a team game, such as RL, than in a one-on-one. Not that the latter don't happen, mind you. Anyone remember any of these?
Buster Douglas betaing Mike Tyson (42/1)
North Korea v Italy 1966
Wrexham v Arsenal - F.A. Cup 1992
Greece in Euro 2004 (any match!)
U.S. v England 1950 World Cup
Faroe Isles v Austria 1990
NYGiants beating the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII
Bangladesh v Australia - cricket ODI 18th June 2005 (Bangladesh were 20/1!)
St. Gallen v. Chelsea in 2000 (Chelsea were 1/100)
Papua New Guinea 20-18 Great Britain 1990 (GB 28 point favourites)
Sheffield 17 v Wigan 8 1998 CC Final
Saints v Bradford 2009 ??????????????????????
