[Bulliac]

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:31 pm  

paulwalker71 wrote:

I think we're getting ahead of ourselves if we think Wakefield at home is a 'gimme'

You can bet your bottom dollar that Wakefield are going to target that game as a 'make or break' for their season. As things stand it could be the difference between them being pulled back to being only 4 points ahead of us, or stretching it to an 8 point gap.

It's on June 1st BTW. Six games before that one - and I'm struggling to see where we are going to pick up any points in any of them frankly. That makes the Wakey game the archetypal 4 pointer, if ever there was one....

You could make the same argument about our game away to London in some ways, although being the last match of the season it could be academic anyway....

I think the person who suggested that is a Wakey fan being mischievous - he's had quite a few posts on RLFans but isn't a regular on here, which maybe suggests that anyway.

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:44 pm  

If we lose against Wakefield at home we're down, it's as simple as that. With the cushion they've got they really don't have to worry. If they put their season on that game it effectively wipes us out.

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:47 pm  

Nobody fancy my prediction spreadsheet, then?

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:11 pm  

Saints 52
Leeds 49
Castleford 38
Wigan 36
Warrington 34
Hull KR 31
Hudds 28
Widnes 24
----------------
Hull 22
Catalans 20
Salford 20
Bulls 10
-----------------
Wakefield 8
London 0

[Bulliac]

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:21 pm  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

:( Nobody fancy my prediction spreadsheet, then?

Not sure there's much point in me doing it, FA.

My trouble is I'm overly optimistic. Which translates into my seeing fairly inconsequential events as significant reasons for the natural order being overturned. I'll see a top side having one of their seven internationals apparently 'carrying a knock', and the fact we, at that point in time, are in the unusual position of having almost 18 fully fit players to choose from as a sign that we just 'might nick it' - so I'd probably put us down to win the lot, just to be on the safe side.

Also, as I said earlier, I believe, in general that you tend to lose games you banked on and also win some you consider pretty unlikely, so it doesn't really work for me. Mind, even I'm having trouble finding the 'bankers' this season.

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:25 pm  

Bulliac wrote:

I think the person who suggested that is a Wakey fan being mischievous - he's had quite a few posts on RLFans but isn't a regular on here, which maybe suggests that anyway.

Au Contraire, no mischief at all. Whilst no game can be considered a gimmie, the form book doesn’t lie, Wakefield’s win rate against Bradford must be the lowest of all the other clubs in the SL era.

It may be so tight come the end of the season, that it could even be decided on point’s difference – oh the joy.

[Bulliac]

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:53 pm  

The Devil's Advocate wrote:

Au Contraire, no mischief at all. Whilst no game can be considered a gimmie, the form book doesn’t lie, Wakefield’s win rate against Bradford must be the lowest of all the other clubs in the SL era.

It may be so tight come the end of the season, that it could even be decided on point’s difference – oh the joy.

Oh, indeed, it's good down here innit....

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:56 pm  

I think if we want to avoid the drop we also need wins from the big boys (Leeds, Wigan, Warrington, St Helens, Huddersfield) it's no good us relying on getting wins over Wakefield and London to stay up, Salford I think was a winnable game for us on Friday considering their recent form but at this at moment in time I can't see it happening.

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:06 pm  

I think we have 8 games to get out of the bottom 2. After next Thursday we will be 1/3 the way through the season and we could still be 6 points behind the 12th place - exactly the same as we were at the start.

Two teams down means there are going to be up to 50 current SL players looking to find a place in a team that stays up. That means each of the other 12 teams need to take 4 players each. That won't happen as they won't have the cap space and these 50 players aren't exactly world beaters.

Come July and the players in the two bottom teams will be talking to their agents about getting a new club or agreeing a release so they can sign for next season with a SL club. How many of our players would choose to stay with us? Our good youngsters should be snapped up by other clubs. It is a struggle to decide who would stay.

The two bottom clubs may even start planning for relegation and the need to cut their wage bill to match the championship cap. For the Bulls I am guessing they will need to cut about £500k as the championship is about £900K up to what we are spending this year - again guessing about £1.4m. Rumours will start appearing about players signing up for other clubs to beat the rush in August and these two bottom clubs letting players look around and telling other players they will not be offered new contracts.

We do still have a chance but this is why I fear we only have about 8 games to climb up to 12th. If we are still 6 points adrift I fear we will see the club actively planning for the drop and putting plan Z into action.

Fingers crossed but a massive two months ahead.

Re: Relegation.. : Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:33 pm  

The trouble with any plan for relegation is that we could not afford to open the gates with the size of crowds we would get let alone afford to pay a half decent squad with a chance of getting promotion