: Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:30 am  

Terry Monster wrote:

Or am I confused?

You're confusion is in not taking into account the different probabilities of certain results occuring.

You're assuming that it must be better for there to be a large number of teams that we have a mathematical chance of overtaking, however small that possibility is. I'd say its better for there to be a smaller number of teams, but with a higher probability that we can overtake them

The likelihood of Cas losing at home to Celtic is minimal. There is a much greater likelihood of Quins losing to Cas and beating Wire than there is of Cas losing to Celtic.

If, as seems possible, we fail to qualify by one point, there will be an awful lot of "what if" debates. Early in the season it was argued that we should take encouragement from the closeness of some of our defeats. Now that seems to have been a major achilles heel.

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:20 am  

Some Super League stats...

Wakey have only ever won once in France
Rovers have never beaten Wire in Hull
Cas have won on six of their last seven visits to London

MOTWYW

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:26 am  

YOU are Statto and I claim my £5

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 9:52 am  

af wrote:

Some Super League stats...

Wakey have only ever won once in France but they were crap before and are good now and Cats have lost Bosc
Rovers have never beaten Wire in Hull but they were crap before but are good now and Wire were not in a final
Cas have won on six of their last seven visits to London and Cas are good again now

MOTWYW

Hope springs eternal!

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:58 am  

Adeybull wrote:

Hope springs eternal!

Hmm - I reckon that the chances of the 'out of our hands' bit coming off are

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

HKR beat Wire - 7/10

Cas beat Quins - 5/10

Saints beat Catalans - 8/10 (weakened side?)

=112/1000

+

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

Wire beat HKR - 3/10

Cas beat Quins - 5/10

Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10

Quins beat Wire 2/10

= 96/10000

+

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

HKR beat Wire - 7/10

Quins beat Cas - 5/10

Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10

Wire beat Quins = 8/10

= 896/10000

And those three add up to a 2112/10000 chance - slightly better than 1 in 5.

Now, who was calling me a statto?

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:52 am  

af wrote: Hmm - I reckon that the chances of the 'out of our hands' bit coming off are Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10 HKR beat Wire - 7/10 Cas beat Quins - 5/10 Saints beat Catalans - 8/10 (weakened side?) =112/1000 + Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10 Wire beat HKR - 3/10 Cas beat Quins - 5/10 Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10 Quins beat Wire 2/10 = 96/10000 + Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10 HKR beat Wire - 7/10 Quins beat Cas - 5/10 Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10 Wire beat Quins = 8/10 = 896/10000 And those three add up to a 2112/10000 chance - slightly better than 1 in 5. Now, who was calling me a statto? http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00481/snf06ferg682_481721a.jpg

af wrote: Hmm - I reckon that the chances of the 'out of our hands' bit coming off are Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10 HKR beat Wire - 7/10 Cas beat Quins - 5/10 Saints beat Catalans - 8/10 (weakened side?) =112/1000 + Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10 Wire beat HKR - 3/10 Cas beat Quins - 5/10 Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10 Quins beat Wire 2/10 = 96/10000 + Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10 HKR beat Wire - 7/10 Quins beat Cas - 5/10 Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10 Wire beat Quins = 8/10 = 896/10000 And those three add up to a 2112/10000 chance - slightly better than 1 in 5. Now, who was calling me a statto? http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00481/snf06ferg682_481721a.jpg

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 12:43 pm  

af wrote:

Hmm - I reckon that the chances of the 'out of our hands' bit coming off are

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

HKR beat Wire - 7/10

Cas beat Quins - 5/10

Saints beat Catalans - 8/10 (weakened side?)

=112/1000

+

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

Wire beat HKR - 3/10

Cas beat Quins - 5/10

Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10

Quins beat Wire 2/10

= 96/10000

+

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

HKR beat Wire - 7/10

Quins beat Cas - 5/10

Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10

Wire beat Quins = 8/10

= 896/10000

And those three add up to a 2112/10000 chance - slightly better than 1 in 5.

Now, who was calling me a statto?

I don't understand that. Why do you have to add them all up?

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 12:59 pm  

debaser wrote:

I don't understand that. Why do you have to add them all up?

Within each scenario, you multiply the odds for each game. Then you add the three scenarios to find the total probability. Quite possible there's a snafu in and amongst though.

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 1:07 pm  

af wrote:

Within each scenario, you multiply the odds for each game. Then you add the three scenarios to find the total probability. Quite possible there's a snafu in and amongst though.

But only one of the scenarios could possibly happen right? So the probability of them all happening is nil. Surely?

This is when I wish I'd paid more attention in maths!

: Tue Aug 25, 2009 1:14 pm  

af wrote:

Some Super League stats...

Wakey have only ever won once in France
Rovers have never beaten Wire in Hull
Cas have won on six of their last seven visits to London

MOTWYW

Not a SL stat, but Rover did beat Wolves in the CC in Hull.