For me our hopes depend on a few things:
1 - Coping with the loss of James GrahamWe've been down in numbers in the front row for years. Graham's metres made tell you this, he wouldn't be making 5,000 metres a season if he had enough support. His presence and work rate have been worth two or three 'normal' props. Take him out of the squad and we're left with just LMS, Perry and TP. TP is currently injured, which means we'll start the season with 2 props. Perry has probably never played three consecutive games over here, so we could easily be down to 1 very quickly. Laffranchi and Clough are not good enough at prop before anyone says they are. The club clearly recognises this having tried to sign Griffin and Hill, only to be scuppered by more ambitious clubs.
2 - Coping with the arrival of Lance HohaiaBefore I start slating him, let me say I can understand why they signed him. Eastmond was off, Pryce was off, leaving us with no half backs. Lomax and Gaskell were unknowns and the club couldn't have anticipated how quickly they would develop. So they thought they had to move for Lance given how few halfbacks were available at that time. The length of Hohaia's contract is just absolutely stupid however when you consider his injury history and the fact he physcially looks a man who has lost a lot of his speed.
Lance has NEVER been an established half back. He's been fullback at club and international level. He was terrible for both, a complete and utter liability who simply cannot be trusted under a high ball, with scores of horrendous errors made. He's also been a hooker for club and country, a role he can play to a reasonable level, although far below Roby's. His main role and the main reason he's remained an NRL and NZ player for so long is his utility value.
If the club moves either Lomax or Gaskell from the halves they are making a horrendous mistake. Yet all the signs indicate we're about to do it. He started in the halves against Widnes in our only friendly and the performance when he was there was simply awful. No direction, no kicking game and no creativity. He'll no doubt score the odd try and be semi-dangerous near the line due to his size, but we cannot give him the responsibility to lead the attack. He simply isn't up to it. Gaskell is a better player than him already, is more dangerous with the ball in hand, passes better, is calmer and has a kicking game. Ideally Lance would start as the 'back from the bench', but I doubt he will.
3 - Dealing with the sentimentality over Paul Wellens at fullbackWello, as much as we all love him, is simply not up to playing in Super League any more. He was simply awful for most of last season, costing us time and time again with his dropped balls and late arrivals at perfectly stoppable try scoring moments. He's never had pace, but he's becoming slow of mind as well. He's no longer magnetically drawn to the precise spot the break is made or the ball is kicked. For most games last season he was anonymous, drifting behind play and arriving to throw his arms up in frustration at the referee as he signalled for the try. He offers absolutely nothing in attack, never beats a man and is no threat at all when he joins the line. Saints very often use rigid, pre-planned moves, particularly down the left hand side. Wello joins the line at centre, stumbling to keep up and either falls at the feet of the defenders or throws a hopeless pass that leaves the centre flat footed and stranded.
The club HAS to decide what it's doing at fullback and start the season with it. Wello can be backup while he is still here and help to develop the player chosen for the role. It should be Makinson, if Gardner is being ushered back into his armchair on the wing, which it looks like he is. We cannot start Wello, Gardner and Lance and leave Makinson out, surely? Another option is Lomax to fullback, Makinson on the wing and Gaskell/Hohaia in the halves. That would be an improvement on the current plan, but isn't ideal.
As for how we will do, we're almost guaranteed to finish below Wigan and Warrington. They are bigger, stronger teams who cope better with the season now. They are the top 2 sides. Leeds are an interesting one as unlike our local rivals they won't panic about league position, so they might not bust a gut to be top 2, but I'd expect a big improvement on last season as they'll have pretty much a full strength squad to start. Catalans are a side who look to have improved again, but are always suspectible to a poor start to the season. Hull are a bit of an unknown factor and it remains to be seen how Huddersfield will do, with their coach leaving this season. For Saints best case scenario is 3rd in the league and a favourable cup draw handing us a final against a team other than Wire, Leeds or Wigan. If i were to guess now I'd say 4th and no finals, but I can see us as far down as 6th.
We're not good enough to win SL this season.
