Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Wed May 14, 2014 9:53 pm  

Saint Simon wrote:

I've been thinking on this for a few days. This year was for sentiment, next would be one too far. We can't be too ruthless with players, noone would come, but we cant be too soft either. The young players are being held back with Wello on the bench for another year. Savellio and others will be needing proper, extended runs in the first team by then

Our young players can't be just given the role, it's up to them to get in the team and stay there. Other than Savelio (where, whilst I'm aware I'm in the minority, I understand the argument for patience with, and even if he was getting his chance right now, it's be in the front row so not competing with wellens for a spot) which great youngsters is wellens keeping out? Walker? Richards? Hand? Only walker is averaging significantly more than wellens per carry (~1m more per carry) but is doing significantly less work in defence (and this isn't considering wellens has played in the halves/ centres a bit as well) and the rest offer less than he does in stats without considering wellens well discussed off ball contributions. Or his versatility which no youngsters currently offer.

If the youngsters want a chance, it's up to them to step up, not for saints to remove the obstacles in their way. Wellens is simply posting better stats than them, which is why he keeps getting played. When youngsters start offering more (like greenwood and Thompson imo) they're getting put into start before wellens. Now it's up to either the rest of the youngsters youngsters or those who have been injured to get wellens place (or anyone else who doesn't perform)

I want us to win silverware as much as anyone on here, but that doesn't mean I disagree with the role wellens is currently playing, or that I don't believe he can't keep playing it beyond the end of this year.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 11:37 am  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

Our young players can't be just given the role, it's up to them to get in the team and stay there. Other than Savelio (where, whilst I'm aware I'm in the minority, I understand the argument for patience with, and even if he was getting his chance right now, it's be in the front row so not competing with wellens for a spot) which great youngsters is wellens keeping out? Walker? Richards? Hand? Only walker is averaging significantly more than wellens per carry (~1m more per carry) but is doing significantly less work in defence (and this isn't considering wellens has played in the halves/ centres a bit as well) and the rest offer less than he does in stats without considering wellens well discussed off ball contributions. Or his versatility which no youngsters currently offer.

If the youngsters want a chance, it's up to them to step up, not for saints to remove the obstacles in their way. Wellens is simply posting better stats than them, which is why he keeps getting played. When youngsters start offering more (like greenwood and Thompson imo) they're getting put into start before wellens. Now it's up to either the rest of the youngsters youngsters or those who have been injured to get wellens place (or anyone else who doesn't perform)

I want us to win silverware as much as anyone on here, but that doesn't mean I disagree with the role wellens is currently playing, or that I don't believe he can't keep playing it beyond the end of this year.

I'm going to challenge this so here goes.

In terms of average gain

Savelio
Joe greenwood
Anthony Walker
Matty Fozzard
Luke Thompson
Mark Flanaghan (I'm aware he is not a young lad)
Jordan Hand

All these have a better average gain

You then go on to say they don't make as many tackles but it's not that clear as they are restricted by number of games.
If like average gain you do it by average tackles per match

Mark Flanaghan (I'm aware he is not a young lad) 134/4 = 33.5
Luke Thompson 102/4 = 25.5
Anthony Walker 96/4 = 24
Richards 54/3 = 18
Joe greenwood 125/7 = 17.9
Wellens 182/11= 16.5
Jordan Hand 16/1 = 16
Matty Fozzard 14/1 = 14
Savelio 20/2 = 10

Your assumption that they are doing less work in defense does not hold up when you look at it on a game by game basis. If I played every game and did 1 tackle each match, then it would look like I do more work in defense than someone who plays just once for 20 minutes.

I can't do it by minutes played as I don't have that statistic. But defense per game is a far more valid result than defense in total. So actually stats wise the stats show he is holding out at least 5 players in both attack and defense.
Also saying that they play different roles so he is not holding them out does not hold water either. There are 4 slots on the bench, if 2 of those go to say Masoe and LMS, then that leaves only 2 spots left.

I'm not a Wellens basher, but the arguement you put up about youth having to play better is proven if you look at the stats correctly.

If you then look at missed tackles

Luke Thompson 4/102 = 4%
Mark Flanaghan (I'm aware he is not a young lad) 6/134 = 4.5%
Savelio 1/20 = 5%
Anthony Walker 5/96 = 5.2%
Joe greenwood 10/125 = 8%
Richards 6/54 = 11%
Wellens 21/182= 11.5%
Jordan Hand 2/16 = 12.5%
Matty Fozzard 3/14 = 21.4%

We could go on, but the point is you have to look at the average not the totals to equate them

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 2:03 pm  

This is definitely the best way to analyse it but you need minutes played for it to be valid. As we know, Wellens has only played the last 10 minutes in some games so to call that a full game isn't accurate. Same souls apply to all the stats.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 3:00 pm  

bewareshadows wrote:

<snip>

I shall reposte to your challenge

There's a big difference statistically between metres per carry, and tackles per match - mainly a carry is a carry regardless, matches are different lengths of times dependent on player it's not just how many matches they're playing, but also how many minutes in that match they're playing.

Of course, it's hard to quantify carries/ minute on field or tackles/ minute on field due to none so us have the data for precisely how long each player has spent on the pitch or how it varies from game to game

Wellens lowest tackle count is lower than the others named in your list (8 vs Warrington, compared to Flanaghan - 22 vs Wigan, greenwood -11 vs tigers, hand - 16 vs widnes, 10 vs Wigan, walker - 20 vs bulls) but his low tackle counts also match up to the vilified "playing the last 15 of a match after the game was already won" - when you consider the games he played an actual role in (imo hull, Catalans, Wakefield, Leeds, Wigan and widnes (maybe bulls I don't know when he came on, I wasn't told) then his tackle counts read as 131 tackles (21.8 per game) and 18 marker tackles (so overall 24.8 tackles a game - beating all but Flanaghan and Thompson, and backing up my claim he does more work in defence) - all of his missed tackles have been in the aforementioned selection of games he's played so, that shoots his missed tackle ratio up I'd imagine (I will concede on this front) but does bring me on swiftly to the other flaw with the statistics shown :-

Wellens make pretend role at halfback/ centre/ wherever else he's been put. This bit is a lot harder to quantify statistically (for example, I'd say wellens is the only player in the league to dominate Zak Hardaker so far - which played a huge role in forcing them to play the game through the middle at LP - but no statistics in the world would show that) - but, centres/ halfbacks/ wingers miss a lot more tackles (and make less overall) it's just a fact - Dawson for example is just keeping his head above a 66% tackle completion! But that's another comparison for another day. But this also drags down wellens metres per carry. If you look at our other "halfback but not really" Jon Wilkin, his stats are far more suspect than wellens' are or in fact 75% of the players on your list (he also has the worst metres/ carry stat of 5.14) - but it's hard to have a judgement on how that affects the numbers (which is why I stuck to overalls in my original comparison)

Of course, wellens off ball arguments are done to death, so I won't get onto them, and walker (who is the front runner of the youngsters not getting in) is at best performing as well (without adding the extra dimension of leadership/ versatility etc etc) as wellens. To get into the team, he needs to offer more than the stats he currently is. Given brown values wellens off ball contribution higher than the difference in stats between what wellens and Flanaghan posts (and he is, ultimately the most qualified person to judge that), what does walker offer to get in ahead of either of them? Greenwood and Thompson have done it, and do offer extra to the team, and as things currently (being the key word) stand, I'd be incredibly disappointed that either lost their place before wellens (assuming greenwood isn't injured) but walker, and the rest aren't up to their standards atm. Nor is he offering what wellens does. So why should he get in ahead of any of them?

If he makes it great, but it's not up to saints to remove the obstacle of wellens, it's up to him to force him out, by posting better stats and offering more to the team.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 3:34 pm  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

I shall reposte to your challenge

There's a big difference statistically between metres per carry, and tackles per match - mainly a carry is a carry regardless, matches are different lengths of times dependent on player it's not just how many matches they're playing, but also how many minutes in that match they're playing.

Of course, it's hard to quantify carries/ minute on field or tackles/ minute on field due to none so us have the data for precisely how long each player has spent on the pitch or how it varies from game to game

Wellens lowest tackle count is lower than the others named in your list (8 vs Warrington, compared to Flanaghan - 22 vs Wigan, greenwood -11 vs tigers, hand - 16 vs widnes, 10 vs Wigan, walker - 20 vs bulls) but his low tackle counts also match up to the vilified "playing the last 15 of a match after the game was already won" - when you consider the games he played an actual role in (imo hull, Catalans, Wakefield, Leeds, Wigan and widnes (maybe bulls I don't know when he came on, I wasn't told) then his tackle counts read as 131 tackles (21.8 per game) and 18 marker tackles (so overall 24.8 tackles a game - beating all but Flanaghan and Thompson, and backing up my claim he does more work in defence) - all of his missed tackles have been in the aforementioned selection of games he's played so, that shoots his missed tackle ratio up I'd imagine (I will concede on this front) but does bring me on swiftly to the other flaw with the statistics shown :-

Wellens make pretend role at halfback/ centre/ wherever else he's been put. This bit is a lot harder to quantify statistically (for example, I'd say wellens is the only player in the league to dominate Zak Hardaker so far - which played a huge role in forcing them to play the game through the middle at LP - but no statistics in the world would show that) - but, centres/ halfbacks/ wingers miss a lot more tackles (and make less overall) it's just a fact - Dawson for example is just keeping his head above a 66% tackle completion! But that's another comparison for another day. But this also drags down wellens metres per carry. If you look at our other "halfback but not really" Jon Wilkin, his stats are far more suspect than wellens' are or in fact 75% of the players on your list (he also has the worst metres/ carry stat of 5.14) - but it's hard to have a judgement on how that affects the numbers (which is why I stuck to overalls in my original comparison)

Of course, wellens off ball arguments are done to death, so I won't get onto them, and walker (who is the front runner of the youngsters not getting in) is at best performing as well (without adding the extra dimension of leadership/ versatility etc etc) as wellens. To get into the team, he needs to offer more than the stats he currently is. Given brown values wellens off ball contribution higher than the difference in stats between what wellens and Flanaghan posts (and he is, ultimately the most qualified person to judge that), what does walker offer to get in ahead of either of them? Greenwood and Thompson have done it, and do offer extra to the team, and as things currently (being the key word) stand, I'd be incredibly disappointed that either lost their place before wellens (assuming greenwood isn't injured) but walker, and the rest aren't up to their standards atm. Nor is he offering what wellens does. So why should he get in ahead of any of them?

If he makes it great, but it's not up to saints to remove the obstacle of wellens, it's up to him to force him out, by posting better stats and offering more to the team.

At the end of the day he's had his time and is a shadow of the player he once was. His only position is fullback, he's the worst of our "so called halves", he's shocking with the ball playing as a Backrow.

He's fallen behind the likes lomax, tommy and lance as a fullback. He's behind the likes of Manu, Sia, Wilkin, Greenwood etc in the Backrow and he's actually taking a spot on the bench for 64 mins per game which we could use to give Saveilo, Thonpson etc more playing time which they need.

I like wello, he's been great but I can't honestly see how you can even argue the case for him to stay. I personally don't like watch this wello, it's how we will remember him as a player that played at least two seasons to long.

He's now a below average super league player, it saddens me to say that but I'm being honest.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 4:34 pm  

Like Pete says, he's not the best, or second best or third best in any position, so why keep him?

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 4:36 pm  

St pete wrote:

At the end of the day he's had his time and is a shadow of the player he once was. His only position is fullback, he's the worst of our "so called halves", he's shocking with the ball playing as a Backrow.

He's fallen behind the likes lomax, tommy and lance as a fullback. He's behind the likes of Manu, Sia, Wilkin, Greenwood etc in the Backrow and he's actually taking a spot on the bench for 64 mins per game which we could use to give Saveilo, Thonpson etc more playing time which they need.

I like wello, he's been great but I can't honestly see how you can even argue the case for him to stay. I personally don't like watch this wello, it's how we will remember him as a player that played at least two seasons to long.

He's now a below average super league player, it saddens me to say that but I'm being honest.

He's taking a bench spot for 64 minutes because that's how brown is using him (rightly or wrongly) it's no indictment on him as a player and whether or not he can go around again (or should of this season)

Whilst it goes without saying 1 performance doesn't make a season - do you disagree with my statement about him controlling hardaker? It was said on here almost immediately he was playing second row from the halfback position, so he must be at least capable at one position or the other.

On the flip side, the other argument is - we are, in all likelyhood losing soliola and Manu from our second row options next year - losing wellens as well leaves us relying on kids from the off (unless we pull off a Danny Kirmond style signing, there's not an awful lot of quality available in the second row) which a) hampers their development if they play too much too soon and b) damages our options whilst going wide.

Unless you have some suggestions from the ooc list on who could be potentially available to come, our back row options are so far: greenwood, Thompson (at lock), lms, (same) and Savelio (the only players at the club posting better stats than wellens) and then the host of youngsters who haven't forced their way in. Do we not need more options than that?

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 4:37 pm  

Ship him out to Widnes!?
They have a knack of getting more mileage out of near over the hill players cast offs.
ie
Mark Foster
Jon Clarke
Danny Tickle
Wellens may get another 4 years there.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 4:44 pm  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

He's taking a bench spot for 64 minutes because that's how brown is using him (rightly or wrongly) it's no indictment on him as a player and whether or not he can go around again (or should of this season)

Whilst it goes without saying 1 performance doesn't make a season - do you disagree with my statement about him controlling hardaker? It was said on here almost immediately he was playing second row from the halfback position, so he must be at least capable at one position or the other.

On the flip side, the other argument is - we are, in all likelyhood losing soliola and Manu from our second row options next year - losing wellens as well leaves us relying on kids from the off (unless we pull off a Danny Kirmond style signing, there's not an awful lot of quality available in the second row) which a) hampers their development if they play too much too soon and b) damages our options whilst going wide.

Unless you have some suggestions from the ooc list on who could be potentially available to come, our back row options are so far: greenwood, Thompson (at lock), lms, (same) and Savelio (the only players at the club posting better stats than wellens) and then the host of youngsters who haven't forced their way in. Do we not need more options than that?

Nobody knows the sia or Manu situation as nothing has been confirmed officially. We also don't know what the club is doing on bringing players in either so it's hard to comment.

I stick by what I say, he's 4th choice fullback, awful in the halves and 5th choice Backrow.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 4:57 pm  

St pete wrote:

Nobody knows the sia or Manu situation as nothing has been confirmed officially. We also don't know what the club is doing on bringing players in either so it's hard to comment.

I stick by what I say, he's 4th choice fullback, awful in the halves and 5th choice Backrow.

Agreed, nothing is confirmed yet, and should Sia stay, it's would be wise for wellens to start to consider hanging up his boots - but the longer no word comes from anyone about it, the more pessimistic I am on the matter. Ultimately, whilst Wellos role in the team is played down on here, I'd only want him to call it a day when I know a better player is coming in for him. If that's having a backrow of: Soliola Greenwood LMS; Thompson and Wellens/Wilkin/Walker/ Savelio - then great, and with those options wellens can decide whether he wants to play a bit part in the team (as player coach has been suggested) or just to go straight to coaching, is his decision. If Sia leaves, then were running with fewer options (as I don't believe similar quality is out there as an option atm) and if wellens going around again resolves that until we can find suitable replacement, I'm fine with that too.

Whilst Thompson and Greenwood have stood up and impressed so far, I still think we need some experienced players around them - and I'm still unconvinced by the others.