Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 12:56 am  

It's a tough one to call this year.

Hull have had alot of changes and the coach is not exactly tested, so I'd be surprised to see them in the top 4.
Wigan have lost their best forward in Hoffman, and will Wayne have the same personality as the previous incumbant?
Warrington, are they still in the accendancy? Or was last year as good as it gets?
Saints a few changes, as a squad on paper we look good, but the friendly did not fill me with confidence (that we are up to the start of the season pace or that the right choices will be made picking personnel).
Leeds, well and amazing end, but the rest of the season nearly got the coach sacked so who are the real leeds the finalists or the strugglers at the start of the year?
Catalan, always struggle and will struggle with so many long distance journeys.
Huddersfield on the slide for me, they pushed to break that top 4 and succeeded, but that may have been their peak.

So our possision is not as Saints central as you may think. I'd be concerned if we have a slow start, you can point to leeds last year, but that is a 1 in 15 chance. You really need to be in the top 2 to have a reasonable chance of going all the way.
Fortunatley for us, we have the chance to build up to the start, I just hope that we figure out the halfback and fullback situation quickly.

For me Warrington are the clear favourites, so consistent last year and so dominate against so many sides. The only question for me is will this be 12 months too far for some of their players? With so many key players hitting the 30's at some point the speed of foot and strength will start to dwindle. I'm not saying they will capitulate as a team, but everyone has a time when they have peaked, if the over 30's have another year in them, then it's Warringtons to lose for mine. If it's a bridge too far I can see us filling the gap.

Personally I'd love us to really go for the CC. It's easier to aim for than the GF, but gives clubs that win it huge confidence and tags of champion side. We need to start getting that tag back and the CC would be a huge trophy to bring back to Langtree park this year. After that anything good in the playoffs would be a bonus.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:05 am  

People go on about being over 30 like it's 1980, the lads on town every night and the only protein they got was from bacon, fried eggs and black pudding with the occasional peanut at the pub.

With better, medicine, diets, fitness regimes and more professionalism players go longer these days

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:20 am  

Horatio Yed wrote:

People go on about being over 30 like it's 1980, the lads on town every night and the only protein they got was from bacon, fried eggs and black pudding with the occasional peanut at the pub.

With better, medicine, diets, fitness regimes and more professionalism players go longer these days

Nothing to do with that at all, jes I said you were clear favourites.

Everyone has their day, it's unpredicatable. The only thing you can predict is that as a player you have a limited time, before you press that foot down and there is not the same response as there had been previously. Unless you think that Briers and co will continue with the same form until they retire?

But that is unlikely, there are very few players who call time on their own terms, leaving of their own chosing at the top. I can name many of Saints Golden generation that whilst good when they finished, where not at the best they had been in their careers. If I had to name one that timed it perfect, it would be Chris Joynt. Most everyone else, had to play less minutes, or play but with less impact, or move elsewhere, or get injured. It's sad but true.

Warrington are not Titan's and eventually this group will peak, my point simply is that we don't know if that was last year. They torn sides to pieces and where consistent till 1 game. It's rare indeed to see a side keep those standards 2 years running, there is usually some up or down in form from year to year.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 2:56 am  

bewareshadows wrote:

You really need to be in the top 2 to have a reasonable chance of going all the way.

Under the old top 5 system, most definitely yes. Under the current top 8 system, absolutely not in any way, shape or form. The best team, in the best form, with the least disruption injury-wise come September will win at O/T this season whether they eventually finish the season in 1st or in 8th. Fact. If you think that the current system offers any appreciable advantage to the teams finishing higher up the table then you're self-deluding as it simply doesn't - last year proved that utterly incontrovertibly once and for all.

Saints need no better than a top 8 finish and they will achieve that without hardly needing to bother turning up at all between now and August. Expending any excess energy in trying to achieve a successful league campaign will be monumental mistake for any team.

Anyway, I look forward to the annual knee-jerk cries of woe and disaster from all and sundry when we're 5th or 6th in the league in June after losing a couple of games to Wakefield and Hull KR or whoever, and all the calls for the coach's head and desperate pleas for us to drop half the team and sign up all of Blackbrook's players to replace them so that they will at least "show some pride in the shirt"... I always enjoy those... Fact is we've as good a chance as anyone come September and there's little that's going to happen between now and then that is ultimately going to change that fact.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:05 pm  

A top four finish along with three of Wigan, Wire, Cats, Leeds and Hudds (though I think Wire will top the table). I also think Wire will be more dangerous in the play offs after last years major (but hilarious) disappointment from them.

The Grand Finalists will be from the same bunch, but with Cats and Hudds as outsiders to get there, once we're in the play offs anything can happen as I think all the teams I've listed will be able to beat each other on the day unless crippled with injuries. I thought last years play offs gave us some great games once we'd got rid of the chaff of the bottom three qualifiers and I think this years finals could be even better.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:06 pm  

http://www.superleaguefans.com/st-helen ... eview.html There's a good write up here of the squad and expectations.

http://www.superleaguefans.com/st-helen ... eview.html There's a good write up here of the squad and expectations.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:11 pm  

BackrowSaint wrote:

http://www.superleaguefans.com/st-helens/2012/02/03/st-helens-season-preview.html

There's a good write up here of the squad and expectations.

Any idea who wrote that? Couldn't find a name.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:14 pm  

Billinge_Lump wrote:

Any idea who wrote that? Couldn't find a name.

Not a clue, sorry.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:44 pm  

Northampton_Saint wrote:

Under the old top 5 system, most definitely yes. Under the current top 8 system, absolutely not in any way, shape or form. The best team, in the best form, with the least disruption injury-wise come September will win at O/T this season whether they eventually finish the season in 1st or in 8th. Fact. If you think that the current system offers any appreciable advantage to the teams finishing higher up the table then you're self-deluding as it simply doesn't - last year proved that utterly incontrovertibly once and for all.

Saints need no better than a top 8 finish and they will achieve that without hardly needing to bother turning up at all between now and August. Expending any excess energy in trying to achieve a successful league campaign will be monumental mistake for any team.

Anyway, I look forward to the annual knee-jerk cries of woe and disaster from all and sundry when we're 5th or 6th in the league in June after losing a couple of games to Wakefield and Hull KR or whoever, and all the calls for the coach's head and desperate pleas for us to drop half the team and sign up all of Blackbrook's players to replace them so that they will at least "show some pride in the shirt"... I always enjoy those... Fact is we've as good a chance as anyone come September and there's little that's going to happen between now and then that is ultimately going to change that fact.

Extrapolating from one result, ie Leeds last year is not really very statistically safe.

Also it's not so easy to pick up form as and when you feel like it. Hence why alot of the playoff matches were non-events. It's not something you can turn on and off at will. A run of losses hits confidence of both players and coaches as well as fans. If you look at Leeds last year. Brain Mac was hardly rubbing his hands together thinking it was all going to plan.

It's like saying home games give you no advantage it's just a piece of grass, yet the facts don't really tally with that theory as home advantage gives you all those intangeble factors such as the support, the swaying of the ref, just the psychological knowledge of playing at home can turn a game or the players attitude.

If someone from outside the top 3 wins it in the next 5 years I'd be very surprised.

Re: 2012 Expectations - how will we do? : Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:07 pm  

bewareshadows wrote:

Extrapolating from one result, ie Leeds last year is not really very statistically safe.

Also it's not so easy to pick up form as and when you feel like it. Hence why alot of the playoff matches were non-events. It's not something you can turn on and off at will. A run of losses hits confidence of both players and coaches as well as fans. If you look at Leeds last year. Brain Mac was hardly rubbing his hands together thinking it was all going to plan.

It's like saying home games give you no advantage it's just a piece of grass, yet the facts don't really tally with that theory as home advantage gives you all those intangeble factors such as the support, the swaying of the ref, just the psychological knowledge of playing at home can turn a game or the players attitude.

If someone from outside the top 3 wins it in the next 5 years I'd be very surprised.

I'll say it again - the best team in the best form and with the fewest injuries at the time will win at O/T this season, irrespective of where they finish in the league table.

The basic laws of nature mean that such a team is most likely to win lots of games over the course of a season and so finish high in the table. So the team that wins at O/T is certainly more likely to have finished in the top 2 than in other position. But that does not mean that a top 2 finish in and of itself gives the teams finishing in those positions any significant advantage - it does not. Home advantage through the playoffs is of much less advantage to any team than simply be playing better than the opposition at that moment in time. Leeds would have won at O/T last season even if they'd finished the league in 8th position. Wigan would likewise have done the same had they finished 8th the season before. Their position in the league did not contribute to their trophy wins - the fact that they were the best teams in the best form at the time were in fact the reason.

The fact is that chasing a high league placing is self-defeating and counter productive in modern SL. The way to maximise chances of success in the playoffs these days is to rotate and rest senior players as much as possible over the first 15 to 20 or so league games, scratching and scraping just enough wins along the way to stay in vague contention, and then getting all the then nicely rested senior players together to get on a roll and build form/confidence/understanding over the last 8 or so league games. Let's face it, that's exactly what both Saints and Leeds did last season (even if unintentionally) and look where it got them. The poor saps at Wigan and Warrington who played well consistently throughout the season and fought out top spot between them while us and the Loiners languished in mediocrity ultimately had nothing left to challenge us with come the playoffs. I would argue that an injury crisis over the first 2/3rds of a season is actually of major advantage to a top team now for this very reason - check out Saints and Leeds last year yet again.

I will actually be worried and highly concerned if we start the season well and look good against London and Salford - I was a little relieved to see how awful we looked against Widnes frankly as it shows (hopefully) that we're saving the timing of our form for much later in the season for when it matters. I hope to see us in 6th or 7th in May and struggling badly for form with the likes of Roby, Shenton, Lance, TP, Wilkin etc. only intermittently available with medium term (but non-serious) injuries as this will leave us in the best possible shape come end of season. Nothing would be more harmful to our championship chances than making a flying start and ending up top 6 points clear half way through the season instead.

All of this is, of course, self evident madness of the very highest order. Superleague is becoming a sick joke and I just don't know how much longer I can keep any interest in it going at all in all honesty.