Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 10:37 am  

nickcat0 wrote:

Whilst it wouldn't surprise me to see the demise of RU in Australia (and good riddance), I doubt the NRL would be able to "crush international RU" in New Zealand.

Australia has always been the poor relation in the Southern Hemisphere when it comes to RU. New Zealand and South Africa (or at least Afrikanaar SA) live and breathe RU, and I doubt a NRL tv deal would do much damage.

Given that NZRL are the best in the world currently and NZRU aren't coupled with money talking I don't think it's as safe a bet as you're making out. NZ and SA might want to keep playing each other but don't forget there is no professional league structure in Australian RU only their Super 14s or whatever they are these days. When the rewards become much greater for playing RL then you have to question how sustainable the Super 14s model is.

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 12:52 pm  

nickcat0 wrote:

Can I quote this back to you at work on Saturday, Col ?

Outside of Australia (and PNG), RU is the bigger code. Not because it is better game, not because it has better players, and not because of the structure of its club competitions. RU is bigger because of its international game and the way it can attract large crowds to attend Test matches. These showpiece occasions attract tv contracts, sponsorship deals from multi-national companies, other media interest, and revenue streams that RL can only dream about.

If RL doesn't sort out its international game, to appeal to a mass audience, then it won't die, it won't merge with RU, but it will drift back into being a semi-pro/part-time affair at the top level. Whether this is a bad thing or not I'll leave others to decide; after all, we used to enjoy watching part-timers back in the 80's and early 90's.

Nick you know where I stand where union is concerned.

There are a couple of concerns I have when it comes to the two codes.
First of all the international game,for me this is where RL has to develop and pretty quickly.
If we keep going at the rate we are, RL will continue to go on the slide IMO.

Secondly (and it's connected to the first concern) is the young talent in our game.
Surely they can see the difference where the two codes are concerned.
The likes of Eastmond going to the dark side could be the first of many (I hope i'm wrong).

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 12:55 pm  

lefty goldblatt wrote:

Not a chance!

Does anybody remember the GMR phone ins, about 15 years ago, with "contraversial" Kevin Ashcroft, spouting the same sh1t3 every week "there,s no doubt, there'll be a hybrid game within a decade"......well Kevin....I'm waiting, well actually I'm not, as the idea of watching the 3 point code, fills me with the same joy as having a filling at the dentist.

They don't like us, and we don't like them, on the whole.
I'm sure if Uncle Rupert asked RL and RU to merge to form a new sport, I'm pretty sure both authorites would tell him where to put his Australian Dollars

Yes I remember this and he also said (at the time) that the Super 12 was the best rugby of any code he has seen.
Of course I had to phone up and tell him he was more or less talking bo11ocks.

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 2:04 pm  

Kevin quickly morphed into your embarrising uncle at a party, who's had FAR too much to drink.
He tried to be deliberately contraversial, just for the sake of it (a la James Whale)

One quality GB RL player converting to the 3 point code, does not a crisis make.
If it's 4 or 5 a season, then it's time to panic. Let's just get on with things. I'm sure you lot will overcome this.

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 4:51 pm  

More likely for me is that RL will retreat to its strong heartlands based in the North and so will RU in theirs . The sooner the better for me before half the strongholds die in the wilderness outside of SL.

I RL ceased to exist then rugby would for me. Far more likely to watch football than RU.

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:35 pm  

Div wrote:

More likely for me is that RL will retreat to its strong heartlands based in the North and so will RU in theirs . The sooner the better for me before half the strongholds die in the wilderness outside of SL.

I RL ceased to exist then rugby would for me. Far more likely to watch football than RU.

I agree,rugby to me is RL,I used to follow football years ago but every time I try and watch a game now I always turn over.

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 10:54 pm  

nickcat0 wrote: Whilst it wouldn't surprise me to see the demise of RU in Australia (and good riddance), I doubt the NRL would be able to "crush international RU" in New Zealand. Australia has always been the poor relation in the Southern Hemisphere when it comes to RU. New Zealand and South Africa (or at least Afrikanaar SA) live and breathe RU, and I doubt a NRL tv deal would do much damage. RU wont be crushed in either Australia or NZ, but i could see it being further marginalised in Australia and weakened in NZ What i predict could happen in NZ would be that many of the promissing young players, particularly of Islander decent would choose to go to Australia, and get a contract with an NRL club, than try to play for the All Blacks. Imagine a scenario where a bog standard NRL player is earning £150k a year, with the stars earning £1 million a year. Then compare it to NZ were a bog standard super 14 player would be earning £70k a year and an All Black £150k to £250k a year. The players would do the maths and conclude the NRL was a no brainer. In such circumstance RU in NZ would start to haemorage many of its best young players. Personally think the tipping point would be after a second NZ team joined the NRL. Taking a broader socioeconomic picture, Australia's population is growing rapidly, but so is its wealth. This further increases the countries buying power, especially compared to NZ which has a tiny population and is pretty irrelevant economically. A look at GDP figures for the two countries shows the gulf in performance http://www.tradingeconomics.com/economi ... symbol=nzd http://www.tradingeconomics.com/economi ... symbol=aud

nickcat0 wrote: Whilst it wouldn't surprise me to see the demise of RU in Australia (and good riddance), I doubt the NRL would be able to "crush international RU" in New Zealand. Australia has always been the poor relation in the Southern Hemisphere when it comes to RU. New Zealand and South Africa (or at least Afrikanaar SA) live and breathe RU, and I doubt a NRL tv deal would do much damage. RU wont be crushed in either Australia or NZ, but i could see it being further marginalised in Australia and weakened in NZ What i predict could happen in NZ would be that many of the promissing young players, particularly of Islander decent would choose to go to Australia, and get a contract with an NRL club, than try to play for the All Blacks. Imagine a scenario where a bog standard NRL player is earning £150k a year, with the stars earning £1 million a year. Then compare it to NZ were a bog standard super 14 player would be earning £70k a year and an All Black £150k to £250k a year. The players would do the maths and conclude the NRL was a no brainer. In such circumstance RU in NZ would start to haemorage many of its best young players. Personally think the tipping point would be after a second NZ team joined the NRL. Taking a broader socioeconomic picture, Australia's population is growing rapidly, but so is its wealth. This further increases the countries buying power, especially compared to NZ which has a tiny population and is pretty irrelevant economically. A look at GDP figures for the two countries shows the gulf in performance http://www.tradingeconomics.com/economi ... symbol=nzd http://www.tradingeconomics.com/economi ... symbol=aud

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 11:02 pm  

Despite the best efforts of the media, League is STILL the more popular sport in this country.

Look at the facts, over the last ten or so years, on average the Super League Grand Final attracts over 5,000 more fans than the RU Premiership Grand Final. The Challenge Cup attracts nearly 15,000 more fans on the same basis than the Heineken Cup.

Last year saw RU post a new club-level record attendance of 82,208.

RL's highest club-level record attendance last year? The CC final with 85,217.

As for grass-roots and amateur level, RL is very secure, FAR more popular than RU.

But if you want to take anything from this thread, read what Cragganmore Kid said. One of the best posts I've ever read.

RL will never die.

Re: RU will overrun RL : Fri Mar 04, 2011 11:09 pm  

Let's also remember the words of Tevita Vaikona when he was asked what he thought of Farrell joining RU.

"He'll enjoy life in the slow lane here in Union."

That is how they see it, that is why Wendell Sailor couldn't stand it and came back to League, why Chris Ashton has been such a success already, and why Eastmond is going to embarrass the sport when he makes a mockery of their "defences".

It's also why Union execs have slammed League coaches such as Shaun Edwards teaching Union teams how to defend like it's League. Apparently it's made the game even more boring as defensive lines have become as strong as League's lines.

Let's take the truth for the moment... we're happy with our product, we know it's the best sport in the world, some people worry too much about what the other code is doing. Union fanboys will take a pop at us, and when we respond claim that we're "obsessed" with Union.

Plonkers.

Re: RU will overrun RL : Sat Mar 05, 2011 8:45 am  

Fishsta talking sense? i may need to lie down!