Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 5:06 pm  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

I shall reposte to your challenge

There's a big difference statistically between metres per carry, and tackles per match - mainly a carry is a carry regardless, matches are different lengths of times dependent on player it's not just how many matches they're playing, but also how many minutes in that match they're playing.

Of course, it's hard to quantify carries/ minute on field or tackles/ minute on field due to none so us have the data for precisely how long each player has spent on the pitch or how it varies from game to game

Wellens lowest tackle count is lower than the others named in your list (8 vs Warrington, compared to Flanaghan - 22 vs Wigan, greenwood -11 vs tigers, hand - 16 vs widnes, 10 vs Wigan, walker - 20 vs bulls) but his low tackle counts also match up to the vilified "playing the last 15 of a match after the game was already won" - when you consider the games he played an actual role in (imo hull, Catalans, Wakefield, Leeds, Wigan and widnes (maybe bulls I don't know when he came on, I wasn't told) then his tackle counts read as 131 tackles (21.8 per game) and 18 marker tackles (so overall 24.8 tackles a game - beating all but Flanaghan and Thompson, and backing up my claim he does more work in defence) - all of his missed tackles have been in the aforementioned selection of games he's played so, that shoots his missed tackle ratio up I'd imagine (I will concede on this front) but does bring me on swiftly to the other flaw with the statistics shown :-

Wellens make pretend role at halfback/ centre/ wherever else he's been put. This bit is a lot harder to quantify statistically (for example, I'd say wellens is the only player in the league to dominate Zak Hardaker so far - which played a huge role in forcing them to play the game through the middle at LP - but no statistics in the world would show that) - but, centres/ halfbacks/ wingers miss a lot more tackles (and make less overall) it's just a fact - Dawson for example is just keeping his head above a 66% tackle completion! But that's another comparison for another day. But this also drags down wellens metres per carry. If you look at our other "halfback but not really" Jon Wilkin, his stats are far more suspect than wellens' are or in fact 75% of the players on your list (he also has the worst metres/ carry stat of 5.14) - but it's hard to have a judgement on how that affects the numbers (which is why I stuck to overalls in my original comparison)

Of course, wellens off ball arguments are done to death, so I won't get onto them, and walker (who is the front runner of the youngsters not getting in) is at best performing as well (without adding the extra dimension of leadership/ versatility etc etc) as wellens. To get into the team, he needs to offer more than the stats he currently is. Given brown values wellens off ball contribution higher than the difference in stats between what wellens and Flanaghan posts (and he is, ultimately the most qualified person to judge that), what does walker offer to get in ahead of either of them? Greenwood and Thompson have done it, and do offer extra to the team, and as things currently (being the key word) stand, I'd be incredibly disappointed that either lost their place before wellens (assuming greenwood isn't injured) but walker, and the rest aren't up to their standards atm. Nor is he offering what wellens does. So why should he get in ahead of any of them?

If he makes it great, but it's not up to saints to remove the obstacle of wellens, it's up to him to force him out, by posting better stats and offering more to the team.

Without time on the pitch the assumption that Wello does not defensive work is Flawed. It's a straw man arguement. You can't assume Walker has had more game minutes. Nor the rest of the young fella's. Therefore he does not offer more. Also with his carries offering less, you could say he should be better on the tackling front, but none of the stats prove this. Only the assumption that he plays less minutes when picked.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 5:46 pm  

bewareshadows wrote:

Without time on the pitch the assumption that Wello does not defensive work is Flawed. It's a straw man arguement. You can't assume Walker has had more game minutes. Nor the rest of the young fella's. Therefore he does not offer more. Also with his carries offering less, you could say he should be better on the tackling front, but none of the stats prove this. Only the assumption that he plays less minutes when picked.

What I can assume is walkers minutes on the pitch are more consistent week on week. The range of walkers tackling effort is 7, the range of wellens tackling efforts is 22. Therefore, some games either wellens is doing next to nothing on the pitch OR he's being left off the pitch. Since the latter is very well discussed on here, it's a safe assumption that dividing wellens stats by the number of games he's appeared in isn't a fair summation of his efforts (since his stats have much greater deviation) - walker on the other hand shows consistent levels on all of his performances, with only a narrow range of deviation game to game. So your figures for walker and mine for wellens is a fairer comparison for the 2. Unless your suggesting walker could of played better in the 10 minute spells wellens has gotten in those games I excluded?

When considering the games wellens actually played more than 10 minutes in, that stats are incredibly close between the 2. There is no evidence to suggest that had walker played vs Leeds or vs Wakefield instead of wellens he would of performed the same, or won us the game on those occasions. That is, wellens offers something above and beyond walker.

Re: Wellens wants ........................... : Thu May 15, 2014 5:54 pm  

I am suggesting Walker does not necessarily do very long minutes. Without the numbers it's an assumption to say he's doing 10 -80 minutes. We just don't know, so any statement that he does more minutes is baseless.

And so therefore is the assumption that Wellens puts in a bigger and better defensive effort.

I'm not going to say that my stats prove the counter arguement. But there is one thing we can say and that is that the stats don't demonstrate the younger players playing worse than Wellens.

The point that they need to take the place on merit is fine, but I would argue that on merit some are better picks already. The stats prove little to nothing defensively, on go forward we can take something from average gain.

Like I said I was someone who at the start of the year had no issue with a one year deal for Wellens, but a further one for me would not be based on merit or stats. It's not about holding back the youth players because they are not as good.