[tb]

Re: Odds stacked against us? : Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:13 am  

Sandal Wild Cat wrote:

That alone shows how much they know.

tigerman 10 wrote:

What do the bookies know that we don't?

The key thing to remember is that betting odds are not the odds the bookmakers think there is of something happening – it's about money. Odds are decided on the basis of potential loss on a pay-out: if there's a lot of people betting on something, the odds shorten not because that something happening becomes more likely, but because the potential loss to the bookmaker, if it happens and they have to pay out, is greater. So they reduce the odds to reduce the potential pay-out.

Re: Odds stacked against us? : Fri Oct 30, 2009 5:29 pm  

tb wrote:

The key thing to remember is that betting odds are not the odds the bookmakers think there is of something happening – it's about money. Odds are decided on the basis of potential loss on a pay-out: if there's a lot of people betting on something, the odds shorten not because that something happening becomes more likely, but because the potential loss to the bookmaker, if it happens and they have to pay out, is greater. So they reduce the odds to reduce the potential pay-out.

Correct, it's pure mathematics - nothing to do with the bookies opinion of the form teams and everything to do with the opinion of their punters. Many punters are stupid, if they were not bookies wouldn't exist, others bet with caution. The bookies odds have nothing to do with actual playing strength and reasonable assumptions of who will finish where, they are there purely to offset risk.

Re: Odds stacked against us? : Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:16 pm  

vastman wrote:

Correct, it's pure mathematics - nothing to do with the bookies opinion of the form teams and everything to do with the opinion of their punters. Many punters are stupid, if they were not bookies wouldn't exist, others bet with caution. The bookies odds have nothing to do with actual playing strength and reasonable assumptions of who will finish where, they are there purely to offset risk.

I agree that many punters are stupid, but at this point in time (pre-season) it's not down to pure maths, because when the odds are first set, bets will not have been placed. Bookies have panels of so called experts who take a stab at it, taking into account last season's form, signings that the club have made etc etc. then once the punters have started placing bets on this or that team, the bookies do start to be influenced by the bets that have been placed and the odds reflect this. As you say if someone places a large bet on a team and they stand to lose a fortune if the bet comes up, the bookies will offset the risk.

Re: Odds stacked against us? : Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:14 pm  

danny boy1 wrote:

I agree that many punters are stupid, but at this point in time (pre-season) it's not down to pure maths, because when the odds are first set, bets will not have been placed. Bookies have panels of so called experts who take a stab at it, taking into account last season's form, signings that the club have made etc etc. then once the punters have started placing bets on this or that team, the bookies do start to be influenced by the bets that have been placed and the odds reflect this. As you say if someone places a large bet on a team and they stand to lose a fortune if the bet comes up, the bookies will offset the risk.

Correct , otherwise all would start at 14-1

: Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:12 pm  

ahaaaaa look at Bradford
and look and signing replacing burgess with sculthorpe

: Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:03 pm  

Judd Judd wrote:

ahaaaaa look at Bradford
and look and signing replacing burgess with sculthorpe

And our odds have doubled with the resigning of Clayton