RLFANS.COM
Celebrating
22 years service to
the Rugby League
Community!
WWW.RLFANS.COM • View topic - US Presidential election 2020
::Off-topic discussion.
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:31 am  

User avatarMild Rover wrote:
Mild Rover User avatar
100% League Network
100% League Network

Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2007 9:49 am
Posts: 11961
Location: Leicestershire.
Sal Paradise wrote:
. In Italy and Spain they have locked everything down doesn't seem to have slowed the infections/deaths any?


Difficult to know what would have happened, and how much faster the spread, if they’d taken a different approach.

Everybody’s trying their best and having to make it up as they go along.
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:18 pm  

User avatarSal Paradise wrote:
Sal Paradise User avatar
Gold RLFANS Member
Gold RLFANS Member

Joined: Wed Feb 27, 2002 8:28 am
Posts: 17985
Location: On the road
Mild Rover wrote:
Difficult to know what would have happened, and how much faster the spread, if they’d taken a different approach.

Everybody’s trying their best and having to make it up as they go along.


Absolutely agree - the government is doing its best
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:58 am  
The Ghost of '99 User avatar
Free-scoring winger
Free-scoring winger

Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2006 4:45 pm
Posts: 1914
Location: Desperation Island
Sal Paradise wrote:
Hancock has gone up in my estimation - he has handled this really well. Whatever the government do it will not be right for all people. In Italy and Spain they have locked everything down doesn't seem to have slowed the infections/deaths any? We still have to be able to function the country simply cannot come to grinding halt surely?

God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious.

Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag.

https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/
"Brian McDermott, with a wry smile, nods when asked if he remembers a specific incident which made him realise he was a prick. 'I do', he murmurs."
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:00 am  

User avatarSal Paradise wrote:
Sal Paradise User avatar
Gold RLFANS Member
Gold RLFANS Member

Joined: Wed Feb 27, 2002 8:28 am
Posts: 17985
Location: On the road
The Ghost of '99 wrote:
God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious.

Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag.

https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/


Your report also says there is significant missing data - so it could actually be rising - nothing new from you there - the all seeing eye - I know more than everyone else :D Shame your posts don't back up your arrogance. Notice you didn't mention Spain - not support your argument I guess?
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:19 am  
sally cinnamon User avatar
Gold RLFANS Member
Gold RLFANS Member

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:26 am
Posts: 15842
Other than in the countries where they have comprehensive testing (S Korea, China etc) the data on caseload is likely to be inaccurate because it completely depends on the country's testing criteria.

If they are only testing a certain sub population - those who end up in hospital or who have recently travelled back from an infected region (which is now basically everywhere) then once it becomes widespread, the official figures on cases will not be an accurate measure of the underlying caseload in the population.

But if the mortality rate from the disease (whatever it is) stays constant over time, you can use the number of deaths announced per day as a way to infer what is happening with the underlying caseload. If the average time from showing symptoms till death is 14 to 17 days, then the number of patients that die today tells you something about what the underlying caseload was 14 to 17 days ago.

The mortality rate may not stay totally constant over time - once the case load reaches a level where the health service is over capacity the mortality rate will rise and when it falls below that level it should fall down again. But it may be reasonable to assume these as one-off shifts at certain points, rather than the mortality rate varying a lot over time.

So to track the effectiveness of distancing measures brought in, look at what happens to daily deaths in about 2 to 3 weeks after they were brought in. What you hope to see is some change - if not a fall in absolute terms, at least a levelling off of the rate of growth, which suggests you've got it under control.

As we are still in the early stages this might be a 'noisy' indicator in that from day to day the numbers might bounce around a lot and also there will be some patients who became sick in the early stages and who have been in ICU for a long time and ultimately die several weeks later, so for a few weeks there will still be some deaths from the 'pre-measures' point, coming up in the daily death rates.

I think we should expect to see some very sharp rises in the daily death rates in the next couple of weeks, which will be alarming, but if the growth rate starts to fall after that, even if the deaths keep rising, that will suggest that the measures are starting to work, and should hopefully level off, and then start falling.
Challenge Cup winners 2009 2010 2012 2019
League Leaders 2011 2016
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:49 am  

User avatarSal Paradise wrote:
Sal Paradise User avatar
Gold RLFANS Member
Gold RLFANS Member

Joined: Wed Feb 27, 2002 8:28 am
Posts: 17985
Location: On the road
sally cinnamon wrote:
Other than in the countries where they have comprehensive testing (S Korea, China etc) the data on caseload is likely to be inaccurate because it completely depends on the country's testing criteria.

If they are only testing a certain sub population - those who end up in hospital or who have recently travelled back from an infected region (which is now basically everywhere) then once it becomes widespread, the official figures on cases will not be an accurate measure of the underlying caseload in the population.

But if the mortality rate from the disease (whatever it is) stays constant over time, you can use the number of deaths announced per day as a way to infer what is happening with the underlying caseload. If the average time from showing symptoms till death is 14 to 17 days, then the number of patients that die today tells you something about what the underlying caseload was 14 to 17 days ago.

The mortality rate may not stay totally constant over time - once the case load reaches a level where the health service is over capacity the mortality rate will rise and when it falls below that level it should fall down again. But it may be reasonable to assume these as one-off shifts at certain points, rather than the mortality rate varying a lot over time.

So to track the effectiveness of distancing measures brought in, look at what happens to daily deaths in about 2 to 3 weeks after they were brought in. What you hope to see is some change - if not a fall in absolute terms, at least a levelling off of the rate of growth, which suggests you've got it under control.

As we are still in the early stages this might be a 'noisy' indicator in that from day to day the numbers might bounce around a lot and also there will be some patients who became sick in the early stages and who have been in ICU for a long time and ultimately die several weeks later, so for a few weeks there will still be some deaths from the 'pre-measures' point, coming up in the daily death rates.

I think we should expect to see some very sharp rises in the daily death rates in the next couple of weeks, which will be alarming, but if the growth rate starts to fall after that, even if the deaths keep rising, that will suggest that the measures are starting to work, and should hopefully level off, and then start falling.


How many of these unfortunate deaths would have occurred anyway if they had got a particular strain of the flu? I agree we will see some escalation in the numbers over the next week.
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:00 pm  
sally cinnamon User avatar
Gold RLFANS Member
Gold RLFANS Member

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:26 am
Posts: 15842
Probably a lot - but thats the whole point of the risk here. These are people who are vulnerable.

I think there will be some "displacement" in the death count of people who would have died of other causes (eg terminal illnesses) but who die sooner because of complications from coronavirus and they will be in the coronavirus tallies. If this is true then we may see some offsetting fall in the numbers of people recorded as dying of other causes, during this pandemic.

But there will also likely be a rise in death rate to other things than coronavirus, because the health service is fully occupied, so things that may have been treatable otherwise will not be.

To get a true estimate of the impact of coronavirus you'd need to look at the aggregate death rate (broken down by age) for all causes, and see how much it varies in 2020/21 from the normal trend.
Challenge Cup winners 2009 2010 2012 2019
League Leaders 2011 2016
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:41 pm  
The Ghost of '99 User avatar
Free-scoring winger
Free-scoring winger

Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2006 4:45 pm
Posts: 1914
Location: Desperation Island
Sal Paradise wrote:
Your report also says there is significant missing data - so it could actually be rising - nothing new from you there - the all seeing eye - I know more than everyone else :D Shame your posts don't back up your arrogance. Notice you didn't mention Spain - not support your argument I guess?

Spain has only just instituted a lock down you muppet, of course it won't have turned the corner yet. Is your argument really that you don't think a lock down will reduce infection rates/flatten the curve? Really?
"Brian McDermott, with a wry smile, nods when asked if he remembers a specific incident which made him realise he was a prick. 'I do', he murmurs."
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:45 pm  
Scarlet Pimpernell Bronze RLFANS Member
Bronze RLFANS Member

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:43 pm
Posts: 2625
We are following the American model of minimum testing therefore our death rate will be higher. The reasons are obvious the more tests will increase the number with the virus but the death rate will not change.
We are currently nor testing those in the NHS who have to self isolate and are now no longer providing full protection wear in some trusts. I would say therefore that Raab is not doing such a good job and the years of under funding are now catching up with them but sadly also increases the chance of unnecessary deaths.
Re: US Presidential election 2020 Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:54 pm  

User avatarSal Paradise wrote:
Sal Paradise User avatar
Gold RLFANS Member
Gold RLFANS Member

Joined: Wed Feb 27, 2002 8:28 am
Posts: 17985
Location: On the road
The Ghost of '99 wrote:
Spain has only just instituted a lock down you muppet, of course it won't have turned the corner yet. Is your argument really that you don't think a lock down will reduce infection rates/flatten the curve? Really?


Not at all - there is a difference between infection and death and surely there is a trade off. Do we spread the infection amongst the general population who let's face will for the most part get a mild reaction and build up some immunity whilst isolating the vulnerable or lock down the whole country which will provide a temporary reprieve but build up no immunity?

Like you I am not a virologist so we have to follow the guidance - the question is - is it the lockdown that is slowing number or the natural lifespan/build up of immunity that is slowing the numbers down?
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.
PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gary numan and 77 guests

Quick Reply



Subject:
Message:

   
Please note using apple style emoji's can result in posting failures.

Return to The Sin Bin


POSTSONLINEMEMBERSRECORDTEAM
5,187,1221,73678,6789,567LOGIN
LOGIN HERE
or REGISTER for more features!.
When you register you get access to the live match scores, live match chat and you can post in the discussions on the forums.
YOU HAVE RL CHAT OFF
RLFANS Match Centre
Sun 1st Aug
NRL RND: 20 St.George14-50Souths
NRL RND: 20 Newcastle34-24Canberra
NRL RND: 20 Melbourne37-10Penrith
CH RND: 15 Dewsbury18-22Swinton
CH RND: 15 Featherstone6-23Toulouse
CH RND: 15 Halifax24-21Bradford
CH RND: 15 Newcastle14-20Whitehaven
CH RND: 15 Oldham20-30LondonB
CH RND: 15 Widnes16-34Batley
L1 RND: 12 Doncaster24-46Hunslet
L1 RND: 12 Crusaders72-4West Wales
L1 RND: 12 Rochdale20-42Keighley
SL RND: 17 Wigan50-6Leigh
SL RND: 17 Leeds26-27Warrington
Sat 31st Jul
L1 RND: 12 LondonS12-14Coventry
Fri 30th Jul
NRL RND: 20 Wests16-18NZ Warriors
NRL RND: 20 Brisbane37-18NQL Cowboys
Thu 29th Jul
NRL RND: 20 Sydney28-0Parramatta
SLRND: 16 Catalans40-20Wakefield
SL RND: 16 Hull FC12-22Leeds
This is an inplay table and positions can change as matches are in play.
National Rugby League 2021 ROUND : 20
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Melbourne 19 689 224 465 34
Penrith 19 521 228 293 32
Souths 19 613 382 231 32
Parramatta 19 484 295 189 26
Sydney 19 509 343 166 26
Manly 18 529 378 151 22
Cronulla 18 370 418 -48 16
Canberra 19 383 465 -82 16
 
St.George 19 382 464 -82 16
Newcastle 19 325 472 -147 16
Gold Coast 18 426 478 -52 14
NZ Warriors 19 373 502 -129 12
Wests 19 412 564 -152 12
NQL Cowboys 19 358 584 -226 12
Brisbane 19 331 578 -247 10
Canterbury 18 236 566 -330 4
This is an inplay table and positions can change as matches are in play.
Betfred Super League XXVI ROUND : 17
 PLDFADIFFPTSDIFFWP%
Catalans 15 459 246 213 28 186.59 93.33
St.Helens 12 286 96 190 20 297.92 83.33
Warrington 15 456 247 209 23 184.62 76.67
Wigan 17 305 295 10 22 103.39 64.71
Hull FC 13 298 237 61 15 125.74 57.69
Hull KR 11 271 244 27 12 111.07 54.55
 
Leeds 16 380 290 90 16 131.03 50
Castleford 14 251 354 -103 12 70.90 42.86
Salford 14 237 405 -168 8 58.52 28.57
Huddersfield 15 244 318 -74 8 76.73 26.67
Wakefield 16 279 394 -115 8 70.81 25
Leigh 14 218 558 -340 0 39.07 0
This is an inplay table and positions can change as matches are in play.
Betfred Championship 2021 ROUND : 16
 PLDFADIFFPTSDIFFWP%
Toulouse 10 456 94 362 20 485.11 100
Featherstone 14 579 189 390 26 306.35 92.86
Halifax 15 422 220 202 22 191.82 73.33
LondonB 14 404 357 47 19 113.17 67.86
Batley 15 404 302 102 20 133.77 66.67
Bradford 14 375 339 36 18 110.62 64.29
 
Whitehaven 15 297 410 -113 13 72.44 43.33
Widnes 14 323 378 -55 11 85.45 39.29
Sheffield 14 313 413 -100 11 75.79 39.29
Newcastle 14 298 420 -122 11 70.95 39.29
York 14 345 327 18 10 105.50 35.71
Dewsbury 14 215 401 -186 9 53.62 32.14
Oldham 14 210 500 -290 4 42 14.29
Swinton 15 256 547 -291 2 46.80 6.67
This is an inplay table and positions can change as matches are in play.
Betfred League One 2021 ROUND : 13
 PLDFADIFFPTSDIFFWP%
Barrow 11 382 162 220 19 235.80 86.36
Workington 9 334 158 176 15 211.39 83.33
Doncaster 11 348 251 97 15 138.65 68.18
Crusaders 11 350 322 28 12 108.70 54.55
Keighley 12 410 279 131 13 146.95 54.17
Hunslet 12 334 301 33 11 110.96 45.83
 
Coventry 11 258 264 -6 10 97.73 45.45
Rochdale 11 299 322 -23 10 92.86 45.45
LondonS 12 192 350 -158 7 54.86 29.17
West Wales 12 126 586 -460 0 21.50 0
This is an inplay table and positions can change as matches are in play.
Betfred Womens Super League 2021 ROUND : 9
 PLDFADIFFPTSDIFFWP%
LeedsW 7 364 38 326 14 957.89 100
St.HelensW 7 370 36 334 12 1,027.78 85.71
WiganW 6 222 64 158 10 346.88 83.33
YorkW 6 186 102 84 8 182.35 66.67
CastlefordW 6 166 96 70 8 172.92 66.67
BradfordW 8 158 264 -106 6 59.85 37.50
 
Hudds W 7 104 288 -184 4 36.11 28.57
Wire W 8 150 334 -184 4 44.91 25
FeatherstoneW 8 122 338 -216 4 36.09 25
WakefieldW 7 50 332 -282 0 15.06 0
RLFANS Recent Posts




X