Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:33 am  

Superblue wrote:

Looks like The Democrat establishment have coalesced around Biden to deny Bernie the Candidicy.
But will the Bernie supporters be interested in swopping one set establishment for another, I don’t think so

Since Sanders' support level is about 30% then nobody is denying him anything other than the majority of voters. His strategy was always to win in a heavily splintered field. That has cleared now and he consequently has no chance.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:59 pm  

Superblue's point was correct though in that the Democrat establishment coalesced around Biden to make sure the centrists had a single candidate. Biden had done very badly in Iowa and New Hampshire. He won South Carolina and then the others dropped out. Before that point, Pete Buttegieg was doing better than Biden.

What would have been interesting, is if Buttegieg had still been ahead of Biden after South Carolina. Would Biden have dropped out and got behind Buttegieg...I doubt it.

I think Biden's win there gave a justification for the Democrat establishment to say to Buttegieg, Klobuchar and co - look Joe's been around a while, he's old and probably won't do two terms - get behind him, let him be the nominee this time and you will be rewarded with senior positions in his administration. Then you can position to be the Democrat nominee in 2024. Bernie and Warren probably won't run then, and the other candidates of the left (Abrams, Gillum) won't have the same profile, AOC will still be under the age threshold to be eligible, so the centrist Democrats can secure their succession for the next decade if they can get Biden elected and then have a cabal of Buttegieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, O'Rourke in senior positions.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:06 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

Superblue's point was correct though in that the Democrat establishment coalesced around Biden to make sure the centrists had a single candidate. Biden had done very badly in Iowa and New Hampshire. He won South Carolina and then the others dropped out. Before that point, Pete Buttegieg was doing better than Biden.

What would have been interesting, is if Buttegieg had still been ahead of Biden after South Carolina. Would Biden have dropped out and got behind Buttegieg...I doubt it.

I think Biden's win there gave a justification for the Democrat establishment to say to Buttegieg, Klobuchar and co - look Joe's been around a while, he's old and probably won't do two terms - get behind him

Buttegieg, much as I quite like him, had failed to build up support outside Iowa and New Hampshire. He was never ahead of Biden in national polls. Once outside the first few states, and with no discerbible bounce or expansion of support, his campaign was no longer viable.

I've no doubt there was pressure for the various moderate candidates with no chance to pull out. But that winnowing would have happened pretty quickly anyway, it always does when they start running out of money as donors see the lack of serious prospects.

Bernie's hope of winning the nomination when his support has a ceiling of around 30-35% of the vote was dependent on the split field. The biggest failure isn't some conspiracy against him, it's in his failure to capture the minds of significant blocks of the Democratic electorate. He's lost about 20% of the vote from 2016, there's no-one to blame there but his own failings or underlying lack of appeal.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:28 pm  

“When fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in the flag and carrying a Bible.”

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:46 pm  

With orange skin and questionable hair.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:11 pm  

King Street Cat wrote:

“When fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in the flag and carrying a Bible.”

Do you think that DT was trying to appeal to his core voters

You have to say that he looks way out of his depth (again) but, there seems to be enough voters over there that still think he's great and this is the most scary aspect of the recent goings on.
From utter denial about the covid19 to wanting to send in the army against his own people.
He'll probably try and get an order through to prevent "blacks" voting, you know, like it was in the good old days - the guy is a butty (or two) short of a picnic.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:52 pm  

Trump's strength is in appealing to single issue voters; religious extremists, evangelicals, gun lovers, supremacists and hard-line Republicans. This crisis is the perfect opportunity for him to push their buttons. He'll be reminding them of the up and coming reelection campaign any day soon. My guess is that he'll run with the old 'Make America Great Again' again, as silly as that sounds right now. But it will work among his base. They'll lap it up.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:22 pm  

King Street Cat wrote:

Trump's strength is in appealing to single issue voters; religious extremists, evangelicals, gun lovers, supremacists and hard-line Republicans. This crisis is the perfect opportunity for him to push their buttons. He'll be reminding them of the up and coming reelection campaign any day soon. My guess is that he'll run with the old 'Make America Great Again' again, as silly as that sounds right now. But it will work among his base. They'll lap it up.

And they will be right, playing to strengths, weeding out the hangers on and free loaders, doing what needs to be done. Not based on colour, creed, religion but simple fact, the world is full of idiots (is your mirror working)?

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:07 pm  

IR80 wrote:

And they will be right, playing to strengths, weeding out the hangers on and free loaders, doing what needs to be done. Not based on colour, creed, religion but simple fact, the world is full of idiots (is your mirror working)?

Do you "help" weeding them out by kneeling on their neck until they can no longer breathe

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:01 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Do you "help" weeding them out by kneeling on their neck until they can no longer breathe

Only you could make a giant leap from what I posted to condoning the murder of an innocent man...