Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:50 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

The result on any one day could be a blip so you have to look at the time trend.

The number of reported cases will depend on the testing regime. If they step up testing there will be a rapid increase in reported cases, even with the caseload staying the same.

My rule of thumb will be to watch the trends in deaths rather than reported cases, when the number of daily deaths starts falling (consistently, not just a one off day) then we were probably over the peak a couple of weeks before.

More deaths than China!!

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:29 pm  

Yes that is quite revealing.

If the Chinese are being truthful about their figures, then we are seeing a situation where a western country who has only been really hit by this for a few weeks, now has more total deaths than a country that has had this for several months and has a considerably bigger population.

Why?

It could be that the Chinese went radical with their response early on - major lockdowns (much easier of course in a surveillance society with a compliant population) and so despite being initially overwhelmed in Wuhan, China has got a measure of control over the disease. Meanwhile Italy has been caught on the back foot playing catch up, which is a warning to the rest of the western countries.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am  

sally cinnamon wrote:

Yes that is quite revealing.

If the Chinese are being truthful about their figures, then we are seeing a situation where a western country who has only been really hit by this for a few weeks, now has more total deaths than a country that has had this for several months and has a considerably bigger population.

Why?

It could be that the Chinese went radical with their response early on - major lockdowns (much easier of course in a surveillance society with a compliant population) and so despite being initially overwhelmed in Wuhan, China has got a measure of control over the disease. Meanwhile Italy has been caught on the back foot playing catch up, which is a warning to the rest of the western countries.

This is going to sound bonkers but could this be temperature related - Northern Italy can be very cold at this time of year - it seems to be concentrated in the North?

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:25 am  

Sal Paradise wrote: This is going to sound bonkers but could this be temperature related - Northern Italy can be very cold at this time of year - it seems to be concentrated in the North? Surely northern Italy is not the coldest place at the moment....how come it hasn't ravaged Scotland, Russia, Scandinavia etc. This has some stuff about viruses and seasonality: https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/sc ... s-outbreak Basically says there are factors with warmer temperatures which make it harder for viruses to spread (fewer people clustering indoors; droplets hang in cold air for longer; sunlight breaks down viruses on outdoor surfaces so they don't survive as long).

Sal Paradise wrote: This is going to sound bonkers but could this be temperature related - Northern Italy can be very cold at this time of year - it seems to be concentrated in the North? Surely northern Italy is not the coldest place at the moment....how come it hasn't ravaged Scotland, Russia, Scandinavia etc. This has some stuff about viruses and seasonality: https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/sc ... s-outbreak Basically says there are factors with warmer temperatures which make it harder for viruses to spread (fewer people clustering indoors; droplets hang in cold air for longer; sunlight breaks down viruses on outdoor surfaces so they don't survive as long).

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:55 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote: Surely northern Italy is not the coldest place at the moment....how come it hasn't ravaged Scotland, Russia, Scandinavia etc. This has some stuff about viruses and seasonality: https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/sc ... s-outbreak Basically says there are factors with warmer temperatures which make it harder for viruses to spread (fewer people clustering indoors; droplets hang in cold air for longer; sunlight breaks down viruses on outdoor surfaces so they don't survive as long). Population density for one thing - Milan is approx. 8m - its the 4th largest in Europe - which is greater than the whole of Scotland, Norway, Finland, Denmark not much smaller than Sweden. Turin is c2m - Russia simply wont be reporting.

sally cinnamon wrote: Surely northern Italy is not the coldest place at the moment....how come it hasn't ravaged Scotland, Russia, Scandinavia etc. This has some stuff about viruses and seasonality: https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/sc ... s-outbreak Basically says there are factors with warmer temperatures which make it harder for viruses to spread (fewer people clustering indoors; droplets hang in cold air for longer; sunlight breaks down viruses on outdoor surfaces so they don't survive as long). Population density for one thing - Milan is approx. 8m - its the 4th largest in Europe - which is greater than the whole of Scotland, Norway, Finland, Denmark not much smaller than Sweden. Turin is c2m - Russia simply wont be reporting.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:06 pm  

Brazil is seeing a surge in cases, and it's in the high 20s this time of year. Humidity may be a factor there, though?

[Mild Rover]

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:21 pm  

Random variations as well - you wouldn’t expect it to be very uniform early on.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:22 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

This is going to sound bonkers but could this be temperature related - Northern Italy can be very cold at this time of year - it seems to be concentrated in the North?

I did think along the same lines but from a warmer temperature perspective, with Italy and Spain on the same latitudes.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:30 pm  

Looks like The Democrat establishment have coalesced around Biden to deny Bernie the Candidicy.
But will the Bernie supporters be interested in swopping one set establishment for another, I don’t think so

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:08 pm  

No but I think the Bernie supporters will turn out to vote for Biden (whilst making it clear they disapprove) because they would rather have a Democrat in the White House taking the Presidential powers over judicial appointments out of the hands of the Republicans, and they will fight Biden through the progressives v establishment battle within the Democrat party.

Biden will be a short-term bridge, do relatively little other than "not be a Republican". But Bernie would also only be a short-term bridge even if he won, he would not be able to achieve much of his agenda within 4 years. What Bernie has really done is brought the progressive left into mainstream US politics, especially within the Democrat party, they were on the fringes before. Unlike Corbyn, he hasn't been tainted with electoral disaster.