Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:42 am  

sally cinnamon wrote:

True but if the people Fox News poll are 49% for Bernie now, while the economy is doing well, it's not a good sign for Trump if there's an economic slowdown or other associated disruption falling out of coronavirus.

The bank failures in 2008 happened over the summer before the 2008 election, and that really did George W Bush and the Republicans damage, which meant Obama was in a good position to attack their record (even though he was running against McCain).

You would expect Trump to start from a position of strength against Bernie, and then Bernie close the gap during the campaign. If Fox News - which is Trump's propaganda channel, has Bernie 7 points ahead now, it's not a good sign for Trump.

Of course Trump can win again through the electoral college whilst being down on the overall vote, but if the gap becomes too big even the college looks dicey. I remember after the 2018 mid terms following the analysis from the stats site fivethirtyeight, their main takeaway was basically that if that pattern repeated in the Presidential elections, Trump would be beaten badly, and he needed to recapture a fair amount of Democrat voters from 2018 in order to win in 2020. Those 2018 mid terms were also the election that brought in all the Sanders-esque lefties in to the House of Representatives, so its not like it was a revival of the centrists.

I agree with that analysis I think the mid terms are a bit like our bi-elections often they are a protest vote but when it really matters they usually revert back. These left leaning senators like Cortez made a huge noise when they first went in but seem to have lost their voice now?

Time will tell - the sitting president seems to have an unfair advantage in the US only Bush snr in recent years hasn't managed to get re-elected.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:35 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Fox news, I was in the states 3 weeks ago during the impeachment - Fox basically pulled the Democrats apart. Yes they have the likes of Bill Maher but he is once a week.

Obama was a disaster as a president - the two things he actually did were hugely unpopular - Obama Care and Iran and the country went so far backwards under him it will be a long time before they elect another black president.

I suppose if you watch Fox News that would explain so much about your rather distorted world view.
In reality supporting and defending Obamacare was what won the Democrats the house in 2018; it is not an ideal law as it panders a bit too much to the insurance industry but it was the best which could be done to advance healthcare to poorer Americans at the time. It has stablised price increases, crucially introduced the pre-existing condition law and is now consistently popular with a majority of the country. The Republican threat to destroy it was the key Dem message behind their success in the mid-terms.

The Iran deal is so misrepresented by far right wingers it's hard to know what to do with them. It was, of course, jointly negotiated and signed up to by your Tory government and the only reason Trump doesn't like it was because the black man negotiated it and that's never acceptable for him. Again, a large majority of Americans in polling opposed Trump pulling out of the deal.

As for Obama himself, he was a good upper-tier ranked, very hard working, almost entirely scandal-free President who bequethed to his successor a strong economy and reducing deficit. He was elected twice by a majority of American voters and is, by some distance, the most popular living American President.

sally cinnamon wrote:

Those 2018 mid terms were also the election that brought in all the Sanders-esque lefties in to the House of Representatives, so its not like it was a revival of the centrists.

This is utterly untrue. The "lefties" who get Fox News attention won in safe Democrat seats, sometimes by toppling more centrist sitting congressmen in primaries. The people who flipped the House by winning seats from Republicans were, and are, very centrist (probably something similar to Ken Clarke Tories in the UK).

Sal Paradise wrote:

These left leaning senators like Cortez made a huge noise when they first went in but seem to have lost their voice now?

They aren't Senators they are congresswomen, the four which Fox News obsesses with are four backbenchers out of 435 in the House. They have a role and are in safe districts where their views represent their constituents. But they aren't leadership and they have very quickly acknowledged that Pelosi is the brains of the Democrat operation there and aren't particularly rocking the boat.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:30 am  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

I suppose if you watch Fox News that would explain so much about your rather distorted world view.
In reality supporting and defending Obamacare was what won the Democrats the house in 2018; it is not an ideal law as it panders a bit too much to the insurance industry but it was the best which could be done to advance healthcare to poorer Americans at the time. It has stablised price increases, crucially introduced the pre-existing condition law and is now consistently popular with a majority of the country. The Republican threat to destroy it was the key Dem message behind their success in the mid-terms.

The Iran deal is so misrepresented by far right wingers it's hard to know what to do with them. It was, of course, jointly negotiated and signed up to by your Tory government and the only reason Trump doesn't like it was because the black man negotiated it and that's never acceptable for him. Again, a large majority of Americans in polling opposed Trump pulling out of the deal.

As for Obama himself, he was a good upper-tier ranked, very hard working, almost entirely scandal-free President who bequethed to his successor a strong economy and reducing deficit. He was elected twice by a majority of American voters and is, by some distance, the most popular living American President.

This is utterly untrue. The "lefties" who get Fox News attention won in safe Democrat seats, sometimes by toppling more centrist sitting congressmen in primaries. The people who flipped the House by winning seats from Republicans were, and are, very centrist (probably something similar to Ken Clarke Tories in the UK).

They aren't Senators they are congresswomen, the four which Fox News obsesses with are four backbenchers out of 435 in the House. They have a role and are in safe districts where their views represent their constituents. But they aren't leadership and they have very quickly acknowledged that Pelosi is the brains of the Democrat operation there and aren't particularly rocking the boat.

You have and always have had a very distorted view on matters. Obama by his own admission couldn't get a policy through the congress/senate which was dominated by Republicans - he was scandal free mainly because of his own political impotence. The Iran deal should never have been in the format that it was but there you go. He repeatedly promised to get rid of Guantanamo its still there, his record on expelling illegals was extreme - made Donald look soft. The economy grew - difficult to avoid that given the state it was in when he took over - given his inability to get anything done it is difficult to correlate the two.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:49 am  

So what you are saying with no actual evidence is that Obama was only scandal free because of the republicans. I suppose you have examples of where they blocked scandalous actions unlike Trump who appears to create one every day.
What would normally be a major news story under Trump it is just a Thursday.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:30 pm  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

So what you are saying with no actual evidence is that Obama was only scandal free because of the republicans. I suppose you have examples of where they blocked scandalous actions unlike Trump who appears to create one every day.
What would normally be a major news story under Trump it is just a Thursday.

No I'm not saying that - he was a very good man very human being - sadly largely ineffective as a president. I agree about Donald - he thinks he is running his own company and he say/do what he wants - unfortunately running a country is different from a company.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:17 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

You have and always have had a very distorted view on matters. Obama by his own admission couldn't get a policy through the congress/senate which was dominated by Republicans - he was scandal free mainly because of his own political impotence. The Iran deal should never have been in the format that it was but there you go. He repeatedly promised to get rid of Guantanamo its still there, his record on expelling illegals was extreme - made Donald look soft. The economy grew - difficult to avoid that given the state it was in when he took over - given his inability to get anything done it is difficult to correlate the two.

Of course Obama less effective after 2010 when his party lost the majority; that's the nature of partisan American politics as it stands and is where Trump is now. It's a massive straw man.

What the Obama administration did in the two years they had power though contrast quite brutally with Trump's first two years:

Passed the Recovery Act which stimulated the economy, saved General Motors amongst many others, prevented an all-out depression and laid the foundations for the strongest period of continuous economic growth in modern American history.
Passed the largest tax cuts for working Americans in history
Gave millions of poorer Americans the chance of healthcare with the Affordable Care Act, following which the number of Americans without health coverage fell by around 25 million people
Signed Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform to prevent a repeat of the circumstances that led to the Great Recession
The New START treaty cut nuclear weapons in Russia and the USA
Repealed Don't Ask, Don't Tell to remove the slander that only some Americans were patriotic or brave enough to serve in the military

In contrast Trump did a big tax cut for wealthy people and corporations, most of which disappeared as stock buy-backs. His biggest success is in not messing up the Obama Economy, which is something I suppose.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:53 pm  

Well Super Tuesday coming up this week ,with a third of overall pledged delegates up for grabs.

Probably shake the Democrat field down to three or four.

Biden will be lifted after gaining SC, but Sanders and Warren didn’t put much effort into it.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:46 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Time will tell - the sitting president seems to have an unfair advantage in the US only Bush snr in recent years hasn't managed to get re-elected.

Probably because when they don't get a primary challenge (which Bush snr did) they can spend this time fundraising and not spending, meanwhile the other side are burning up funds fighting their own primary.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:48 pm  

Superblue wrote:

Well Super Tuesday coming up this week ,with a third of overall pledged delegates up for grabs.

Probably shake the Democrat field down to three or four.

Biden will be lifted after gaining SC, but Sanders and Warren didn’t put much effort into it.

Steyer and Buttegieg gone, surely Klobuchar is going to drop out soon. The only one left with a chance is Warren, who may be able to attract supporters from both Bernie and Biden.

Bloomberg can stay in as a sideshow as long as he has money to burn on it.

Biden does have some natural advantages in terms of his natural base, but his problem is he is so poor in these debates. He is basically a poor man's Hilary.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:43 am  

Interesting point raised on the latest fivethirtyeight podcast - if coronavirus spreads, what are the risks of one of the candidates getting it?

Because of their age, the health and fitness to be President will be a massive factor for either Biden or especially Bernie. Having coronavirus would ruin their campaign.

Also they will be out shaking loads of peoples hands, in large rallies.