Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:27 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Like you I am not a virologist so we have to follow the guidance - the question is - is it the lockdown that is slowing number or the natural lifespan/build up of immunity that is slowing the numbers down?

It's the lockdown. HTH.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:31 pm  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

It's the lockdown. HTH.

You must be right - well in your own head

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:17 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

You must be right - well in your own head

I bow to your superior knowledge.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:45 am  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

I bow to your superior knowledge.

At last a sensible post

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:09 pm  

The Ghost of '99 wrote: God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/ Do you still think lock down in Italy is still working - i.e. numbers are reducing? Yesterday deaths reached 475 in a single day - the highest yet!! I suggested you haven't got a clue what you are talking about - seems the official data you love so much backs up my synopsis - you really haven't got a clue.

The Ghost of '99 wrote: God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/ Do you still think lock down in Italy is still working - i.e. numbers are reducing? Yesterday deaths reached 475 in a single day - the highest yet!! I suggested you haven't got a clue what you are talking about - seems the official data you love so much backs up my synopsis - you really haven't got a clue.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:19 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Do you still think lock down in Italy is still working - i.e. numbers are reducing? Yesterday deaths reached 475 in a single day - the highest yet!!

I suggested you haven't got a clue what you are talking about - seems the official data you love so much backs up my synopsis - you really haven't got a clue.

Yesterdays deaths will be an indication of what the number of people getting infected was 14 to 17 days ago, given thats the average time between infection and death.

To see whether the lock down is working you need to look at whether the rate of growth is slowing down, not just the absolute numbers.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:44 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

At last a sensible post

You should try it sometimes

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:50 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

Yesterdays deaths will be an indication of what the number of people getting infected was 14 to 17 days ago, given thats the average time between infection and death.

To see whether the lock down is working you need to look at whether the rate of growth is slowing down, not just the absolute numbers.

I read they had based the initial slowdown lockdown model on a 5 to 10 day time delay, but are now hoping the actual slowdown comes after 14-21 days

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:39 am  

sally cinnamon wrote:

Yesterdays deaths will be an indication of what the number of people getting infected was 14 to 17 days ago, given thats the average time between infection and death.

To see whether the lock down is working you need to look at whether the rate of growth is slowing down, not just the absolute numbers.

Yesterday saw the biggest increase in not only deaths but reported cases - does this suggest the rate of growth is slowing or increasing or was that just a blip?

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:28 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Yesterday saw the biggest increase in not only deaths but reported cases - does this suggest the rate of growth is slowing or increasing or was that just a blip?

The result on any one day could be a blip so you have to look at the time trend.

The number of reported cases will depend on the testing regime. If they step up testing there will be a rapid increase in reported cases, even with the caseload staying the same.

My rule of thumb will be to watch the trends in deaths rather than reported cases, when the number of daily deaths starts falling (consistently, not just a one off day) then we were probably over the peak a couple of weeks before.