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Re: Brexit watch Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:47 pm  

User avatarwrencat1873 wrote:
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Sal Paradise wrote:
If that were the case how come we have less unemployed - surely under your scenario we would unemployment rise?


Fewer unemployed and yet, increasing population and stagnant GDP, which seems to indicate that we have more people working but, collectively they are earning less than previously.
Either the figures are being fudged or, perhaps there are so many more people on minimum wage.
You could argue that the UK is indeed already turning into a sweat shop ecconomy. We'll be bringing back the workhouse soon, maybe, even a bit of slavery too. :CRAZY:
Re: Brexit watch Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:54 pm  

User avatarwrencat1873 wrote:
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Is our insistence on dealing with the Chinese telecoms company Huawei, a deal breaker and something that will damage the UK's chances of a trade deal with the US or are they just playing hard ball.
I wonder what the chances are that we dong get a trade deal with either the EU or US by the end of the year ?
Re: Brexit watch Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:34 pm  
Scarlet Pimpernell Bronze RLFANS Member
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Johnson’s first test away from the security of the EU. He wanted to be able to negotiate a new trade deal with the US. He must choose if he wants to stand up to Trump by continuing with China or does he cave.
I think he will appear to stand against Trump but in secret will soften the trade deal to make it appeal to Trump and if found out will just lie and avoid any debate.
He may realise how much of a small fish we are in a very big pond.
Re: Brexit watch Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:35 am  

User avatarwrencat1873 wrote:
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Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:
Johnson’s first test away from the security of the EU. He wanted to be able to negotiate a new trade deal with the US. He must choose if he wants to stand up to Trump by continuing with China or does he cave.
I think he will appear to stand against Trump but in secret will soften the trade deal to make it appeal to Trump and if found out will just lie and avoid any debate.
He may realise how much of a small fish we are in a very big pond.


Or just end up with a crap deal ?
During any negotiation, if you can get the other party on the back foot, they will have to concede ground and for all of his many faults, I believe that Trump is a damn good negotiator.
As soon as you start back peddling you have lost and for this reason, Johnson has to stay strong and maybe even up the ante.

Having said that, we are already in a weak bargaining position as Trump knows just how desperate we are to secure a deal, as do the EU.
Re: Brexit watch Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:37 pm  

User avatarEgg Banjo wrote:
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Every deal we get will be weak.

We have gone from being rule makers into becoming rule takers. Time to get used to our new reduced place in an ever more global market
Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.
Re: Brexit watch Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:43 pm  

ColD wrote:
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Egg Banjo wrote:
Every deal we get will be weak.

We have gone from being rule makers into becoming rule takers. Time to get used to our new reduced place in an ever more global market


Well it was the people’s choice was it not
Onwards and upwards - LTID
Re: Brexit watch Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:40 pm  
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Sal Paradise wrote:
What a load of rubbish - supply and demand suggests wages have to rise - anyone who has a business knows if you want to recruit you have to pay a rate that people are prepared to work for. Long term employees give a false cost of employment - you try and replace them at their rate - impossible. So you have a hotel you can't get the staff at the money you want what happens - you either do without which you can't or you pay and pass it on - same goes for fruit picking etc. The biggest problem in the UK is we don't value investing in our people - we seem scared that we invest and then they leave - perhaps we need to understand the value the add whilst they are getting trained and understand how we create a challenging environment that encourages them to stay. Much easier to bring in the finished product whether its a doctor or a sportsman.


Good points for debate here. Particularly in the context of investing in people. The ability for staff to leave after training is a classic argument for why the government needs to be heavily involved in providing or funding training, although it should be in partnership with the private sector as they are closest to knowing what skills are required. The apprenticeships policy, which was kicked off when Vince Cable was in the Business Department during the Coalition but has been generally supported by a succession of Tory ministers, is one of the better ideas that has come out of the post-2010 government. However it has been constrained by a Treasury that was never willing to really back it financially to go big on the scale that say the Germans have apprenticeships. As with a lot of things with this government, they like to have the policy and idea, so they have an answer to media questions, "thats why we have launched our Apprenticeships policy..." rather than really going all out to get things right.

The other point about immigration and cost of labour - yes if you reduce labour supply then wages have to rise, but in sectors where you are dealing with competition from abroad that just makes you less competitive. In fruit picking for instance we either just let the domestic fruit industry die as all the supermarkets just import foreign fruit when the costs of fruit picking in the UK rise, or we protect it with tariffs in which case consumers just face higher fruit prices.
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Re: Brexit watch Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:30 pm  

User avatarSal Paradise wrote:
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sally cinnamon wrote:
Good points for debate here. Particularly in the context of investing in people. The ability for staff to leave after training is a classic argument for why the government needs to be heavily involved in providing or funding training, although it should be in partnership with the private sector as they are closest to knowing what skills are required. The apprenticeships policy, which was kicked off when Vince Cable was in the Business Department during the Coalition but has been generally supported by a succession of Tory ministers, is one of the better ideas that has come out of the post-2010 government. However it has been constrained by a Treasury that was never willing to really back it financially to go big on the scale that say the Germans have apprenticeships. As with a lot of things with this government, they like to have the policy and idea, so they have an answer to media questions, "thats why we have launched our Apprenticeships policy..." rather than really going all out to get things right.

The other point about immigration and cost of labour - yes if you reduce labour supply then wages have to rise, but in sectors where you are dealing with competition from abroad that just makes you less competitive. In fruit picking for instance we either just let the domestic fruit industry die as all the supermarkets just import foreign fruit when the costs of fruit picking in the UK rise, or we protect it with tariffs in which case consumers just face higher fruit prices.


I agree with in one way about apprenticeships - we are different from Germany in that we are a service led economy and it is easier to fit the apprenticeship model into a manufacturing environment. There is plenty of financial support out there for training apprentices but for a small company <5 employees its difficult to administer and we have a lot of employers of that size. If you look at a the bigger firms - Airbus, Nissan, Toyota, JCB they have a vibrant apprenticeship programs. Professions are built on trainees who because of the pyramid system will be encouraged to move on and the bigger public sector employers require professionally trained staff - nurses, doctors, teachers - this is not suited to an apprenticeship.

So how is it that fruit can get picked cheaper in Europe than here when the EU want parity of wages T&C's - is it that our wages are higher than the rest of EU or is that they are more advanced in the processes of picking? Perhaps we need to go down the road of high end fruit/veg rather than try and compete with other low cost economies?
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.
Re: Brexit watch Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:24 pm  
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With the exception of JCB there is a possibility that the rest any many others could relocate to the EU because they only used the U.K. to gain access to this market. If Johnson continues with his threat to impose tariffs so will the EU leaving many companies with the stark reality of selling within the U.K. or the much larger EU markets.
Re: Brexit watch Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:42 pm  

User avatarSal Paradise wrote:
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Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:
With the exception of JCB there is a possibility that the rest any many others could relocate to the EU because they only used the U.K. to gain access to this market. If Johnson continues with his threat to impose tariffs so will the EU leaving many companies with the stark reality of selling within the U.K. or the much larger EU markets.


It wont happen - moving an organisation such as Airbus or Toyota would take years by which time things would have settled down
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.
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