The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:02 pm  

Well, Sturgeon has now formally requested a second independence vote for the people of Scotland.
Despite Johnson saying on multiple occasions that he wont allow it (a second referendum), the case for having one does appear compelling.

First of all, prior to the first vote, David Cameron hopped over the border and faithfully promised the people of Scotland that "we" would not be leaving the EU and then during the recent GE, the SNP fought their campaign based on having a second vote on independence and significantly increased their share of the vote and the number of SNP MP's.

Fundamentally, should Westminster be able to decide Scotland's future and if they refuse, will we see and "illegal" vote, much like the one in Catalonia and what would the likely consequences of this actually be ?

For now, we should ignore the economic ramifications ? and just think about who should decide the future of the Scots ?

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:05 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Well, Sturgeon has now formally requested a second independence vote for the people of Scotland.
Despite Johnson saying on multiple occasions that he wont allow it (a second referendum), the case for having one does appear compelling.

First of all, prior to the first vote, David Cameron hopped over the border and faithfully promised the people of Scotland that "we" would not be leaving the EU and then during the recent GE, the SNP fought their campaign based on having a second vote on independence and significantly increased their share of the vote and the number of SNP MP's.

Fundamentally, should Westminster be able to decide Scotland's future and if they refuse, will we see and "illegal" vote, much like the one in Catalonia and what would the likely consequences of this actually be ?

For now, we should ignore the economic ramifications ? and just think about who should decide the future of the Scots ?

still banging the same tired old drum, YOU LOST, get over it, it can't be good for your mental health to harbour such deep seated grudges.

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:06 pm  

Boris' government has the powers to just say no to any referendum, but there's the risk that this issue will grow like a festering wound over time and at some point it will need to be addressed.

If the SNP win a big majority in the 2021 Holyrood elections I expect they will demand a referendum, the UK government will say no, there might be some court case about whether the Scots are allowed to hold a referendum anyway even if it's not binding on the UK government. If that happens it has the potential to embarass either side. If it's seen as a futile election and has a low turn out or only a narrow win for independence - or worse, a defeat for independence, it will really set back the independence cause. If there's a stonking majority for independence and the UK government just says 'it's not binding so we can ignore it' then there will be the same anger at ignoring the result of a referendum that we had over Brexit, and it won't go away.

Brexit will have a number of implications for the devolved governments as powers will be repatriated from Brussels that include areas that will fall in scope of devolution, and also trade agreements will have specific impacts to sectors that are prevalent in Scotland and NI. The UK government will ideally want there to be a collegiate approach to working on these, if there's a sense of the regions being ignored/shafted by a triumphalist UK government that will also fester massive resentment.

In the end the Conservative government could face an untenable position, if they claim to be the party of the Union but are treating Scotland as a colony to be dominated, they will face mass unrest like Thatcher did up there over the Poll Tax. It becomes harder for them to maintain a position about being the 'People's Government' and the ones who listen to the will of the people, if Scotland clearly wants to leave.

They might tactically decide to give the Scots their referendum and let them deal with the practicalities. Once the UK is out of the EU, then if Scotland wants to leave so it can join the EU there will be all those issues about the hardness/softness of the border, and Scottish exit will have the potential to have very stark economic consequences for Scotland. If the UK gets dominated in trade negotiations by the EU and US, it will be a lesson to Scotland as to what happens when you're the smaller partner in trade talks against a party with a vested interest in extracting concessions out of you. This is what they will be when negotiating a future trade arrangement with the UK. Many people in Scotland may well have Brexit/trade fatigue and not want to open up Pandora's Box of leaving the UK. There will be questions around what currency they use. The EU might also warn them that accession to the EU will not be straightforward particularly with potential blocking votes from Spain, Belgium etc who fear their own separatist movements being encouraged to push for independence with the incentive they can secure EU access afterwards.

So it may be that if momentum in Scottish public opinion seems to be heading in the direction of another referendum, that the UK government throws them the bone earlier, and forces the pro-independence side to grapple with the practicalities of exit, rather than let the sense of injustice and being ignored for a long time fester. You can see how a lot of peoples attitude to Brexit is now, "I don't care if it makes use worse off! I just want out and be done with it"....they don't want the Scots to move to that position as it will kill off the economic arguments for remaining in the UK.

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:11 pm  

IR80 wrote:

still banging the same tired old drum, YOU LOST, get over it, it can't be good for your mental health to harbour such deep seated grudges.

Sorry to be such a nuisance in your busy life but, this could be serious stuff.
Not being Scottish, I didn't lose anything here, sorry if that's a bit too difficult for you to grasp.

However, Scotland wanting out and the potential for Ireland to want a reunification vote are significant issues for most BRITISH people.
I take it that, as usual, you have nothing to contribute ?

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:19 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Sorry to be such a nuisance in your busy life but, this could be serious stuff.
Not being Scottish, I didn't lose anything here, sorry if that's a bit too difficult for you to grasp.

However, Scotland wanting out and the potential for Ireland to want a reunification vote are significant issues for most BRITISH people.
I take it that, as usual, you have nothing to contribute ?

Well done for not using an emoticon.

Scotland have already voted to stay in the Union, NI don't want to be unified. Why do people think they can just keep calling votes until they get the result they want.

We live in a constitutional democracy.

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:25 pm  

I heard a rumour that there is already lobbying for Persimmon to rebuild Hadrian's wall in the event of a victorious IndyRef 2. JCB will provide the plant machinery.

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:27 pm  

IR80 wrote:

Scotland have already voted to stay in the Union, NI don't want to be unified.

That was way back when, before Boris and his commander-in-chief, Dominic Cummings took over the levers of power. Any clearer on what they have planned for the future of the UK?

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:42 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

Boris' government has the powers to just say no to any referendum, but there's the risk that this issue will grow like a festering wound over time and at some point it will need to be addressed.

If the SNP win a big majority in the 2021 Holyrood elections I expect they will demand a referendum, the UK government will say no, there might be some court case about whether the Scots are allowed to hold a referendum anyway even if it's not binding on the UK government. If that happens it has the potential to embarass either side. If it's seen as a futile election and has a low turn out or only a narrow win for independence - or worse, a defeat for independence, it will really set back the independence cause. If there's a stonking majority for independence and the UK government just says 'it's not binding so we can ignore it' then there will be the same anger at ignoring the result of a referendum that we had over Brexit, and it won't go away.

Brexit will have a number of implications for the devolved governments as powers will be repatriated from Brussels that include areas that will fall in scope of devolution, and also trade agreements will have specific impacts to sectors that are prevalent in Scotland and NI. The UK government will ideally want there to be a collegiate approach to working on these, if there's a sense of the regions being ignored/shafted by a triumphalist UK government that will also fester massive resentment.

In the end the Conservative government could face an untenable position, if they claim to be the party of the Union but are treating Scotland as a colony to be dominated, they will face mass unrest like Thatcher did up there over the Poll Tax. It becomes harder for them to maintain a position about being the 'People's Government' and the ones who listen to the will of the people, if Scotland clearly wants to leave.

They might tactically decide to give the Scots their referendum and let them deal with the practicalities. Once the UK is out of the EU, then if Scotland wants to leave so it can join the EU there will be all those issues about the hardness/softness of the border, and Scottish exit will have the potential to have very stark economic consequences for Scotland. If the UK gets dominated in trade negotiations by the EU and US, it will be a lesson to Scotland as to what happens when you're the smaller partner in trade talks against a party with a vested interest in extracting concessions out of you. This is what they will be when negotiating a future trade arrangement with the UK. Many people in Scotland may well have Brexit/trade fatigue and not want to open up Pandora's Box of leaving the UK. There will be questions around what currency they use. The EU might also warn them that accession to the EU will not be straightforward particularly with potential blocking votes from Spain, Belgium etc who fear their own separatist movements being encouraged to push for independence with the incentive they can secure EU access afterwards.

So it may be that if momentum in Scottish public opinion seems to be heading in the direction of another referendum, that the UK government throws them the bone earlier, and forces the pro-independence side to grapple with the practicalities of exit, rather than let the sense of injustice and being ignored for a long time fester. You can see how a lot of peoples attitude to Brexit is now, "I don't care if it makes use worse off! I just want out and be done with it"....they don't want the Scots to move to that position as it will kill off the economic arguments for remaining in the UK.

I would let them have a referendum but with certain conditions. They must swop from the pound to an alternative currency. There has to be a hard border, there will be tariffs on goods from Scotland. No financial support from the rest of the UK, no SNP members in the UK Government etc.

Queen Nicola might thinks she holds sway but let the reality kick in of what life might be like outside of the union and see if the people really want.

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:15 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I would let them have a referendum but with certain conditions. They must swop from the pound to an alternative currency. There has to be a hard border, there will be tariffs on goods from Scotland. No financial support from the rest of the UK, no SNP members in the UK Government etc.

Queen Nicola might thinks she holds sway but let the reality kick in of what life might be like outside of the union and see if the people really want.

After exit it will be expected that there will be no Scottish representatives in the UK government and no financial support from the rest of the UK. The UK can't stop an independent Scotland from using the pound though.

As for hard border and tariffs on goods from Scotland, the default outcome if there was no trade deal in place between Scotland and the rest of the UK at the point of exit or any transition, would be whatever arrangements the UK has with any 'third country' (ie country with which it doesn't have a trade deal), as under WTO rules you have to offer the same terms to every country with which you don't have a WTO-ratified trade agreement. So if we decided we wanted to be extra hard and nasty to them, we would have to do the same to every country with which we don't have a deal at that point, which might be most of the rest of the world!

Re: The break up of the Union : Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:31 pm  

A certain type of person really hates Nicola Sturgeon, it's funny to visualise them all gammony faced in rage about her.

I don't agree with her core policy but she's a very good, honest, hard working and very effective politician who does what she promises within the framework of the current settlement.