“At last, a real, Tory budget,” Daily Mail 24/9/22 "It may be that the honourable gentleman doesn't like mixing with his own side … but we on this side have a more convivial, fraternal spirit." Jacob Rees-Mogg 21/10/21
A member of the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati.
Just for clarity, the OJOEU threshold has never been £1m,
I wasn't sure of the threshold to be fair that's why I said I think, was it more like 100,000, which makes even more stupid ( I wasn't far out) my wife was in procurement manager as well, a long time since ive had to use it. I think it was P21+ I had in my mind that's my excuse anyway.
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
The Irish are absolutely desperate to avoid a hard border. Moreso than anyone else at the table, including the UK. If negotiations fail to the point of no deal and a hard border, the EU MUST blink. It's nothing to do with being weak, it's simply the reality of the situation. If things reach that point do you think Ireland will simply carry on with their approach to date, which has been a very childish, "you chose to leave, you sort it out"?
It's not ideal and it would mark a failure of Parliament, but it could work to our advantage.
Similarly, it would mark a failure of the EU to negotiate reasonably. Let's face it, they don't have a glowing track record in crisis situations and another failure sends the wrong message to a already fragmenting Europe.
We may not be in a dominant position right now but the threat of a hard border is a a powerful one which overshadows everything else.
We’re using a couple of transparent negotiation tactics.
1. Nibbling: going back and asking for a bit extra on an agreed deal. If the EU give way on this it encourages us to go again e.g. about that £39 billion... 2. I need to ask my boss: they’re no longer negotiating just with the government, but also with a parliament that can’t make up its mind.
The best thing they can do is nowt. Remember, that just because you think they’re being unreasonable, doesn’t mean they do. They’ve bent a deal around May’s red lines, only to find out there was another one. With the ERG leading May by the nose, they know it might not be the last.
Chucking money at it is her best chance now. Buying off labour MPs in leave constituencies, and peeling off a few of the less loony Tory rebels. 115+ switching seems like a lot, but it feels more likely than meaningful concessions from the EU without a fuller negotiation. Basically, she’s going to ask for something and offering nothing in return - not even new ideas.
Remember, the Brady amendment only just passed and the ERG have said they do not feel bound to vote for May’s deal even if the backstop were removed or altered. Which hardly provides confidence that our government can negotiate in good faith. Taking no deal off the table isn’t about letting the EU off the hook, it’s about stopping the gormclops of the ERG from continuing to cause havoc.
The Irish are absolutely desperate to avoid a hard border. Moreso than anyone else at the table, including the UK. If negotiations fail to the point of no deal and a hard border, the EU MUST blink. It's nothing to do with being weak, it's simply the reality of the situation. If things reach that point do you think Ireland will simply carry on with their approach to date, which has been a very childish, "you chose to leave, you sort it out"?
It's not ideal and it would mark a failure of Parliament, but it could work to our advantage.
Similarly, it would mark a failure of the EU to negotiate reasonably. Let's face it, they don't have a glowing track record in crisis situations and another failure sends the wrong message to a already fragmenting Europe.
We may not be in a dominant position right now but the threat of a hard border is a a powerful one which overshadows everything else.
The Backstop does seem to be the biggest issue whilst I do agree it's not the only issue, I would have thought that both the Irish and the Uk governments are both as desperate as each other to avoid the hard border. Another issue that may help. If we do end up leaving without a deal then having read some of the reports our economy will initially be much worse off than all the EU nations to differing degrees, however, the Irish economy is closely linked to ours, so whilst not being quite as worse off as us they are not far behind. Possibly that's why we bailed them out with a loan when when the Euro zone crashed as it was also in our interests.
It's just a shame the 2 governments can't get their heads together in a locked brightly lit room and come up with a mutual agreement to put to the EU as we are both supposed to be sovereign nations, I have only heard the Irish PM saying we need to speak to the EU.
“At last, a real, Tory budget,” Daily Mail 24/9/22 "It may be that the honourable gentleman doesn't like mixing with his own side … but we on this side have a more convivial, fraternal spirit." Jacob Rees-Mogg 21/10/21
A member of the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati.
The Backstop does seem to be the biggest issue whilst I do agree it's not the only issue, I would have thought that both the Irish and the Uk governments are both as desperate as each other to avoid the hard border. Another issue that may help. If we do end up leaving without a deal then having read some of the reports our economy will initially be much worse off than all the EU nations to differing degrees, however, the Irish economy is closely linked to ours, so whilst not being quite as worse off as us they are not far behind. Possibly that's why we bailed them out with a loan when when the Euro zone crashed as it was also in our interests.
It's just a shame the 2 governments can't get their heads together in a locked brightly lit room and come up with a mutual agreement to put to the EU as we are both supposed to be sovereign nations, I have only heard the Irish PM saying we need to speak to the EU.
Genuine question. Apart from the overriding requirement to maintain the peace, why are the EU so desperate to avoid a hard border, as it is claimed? Eire will have the same problems with mainland UK with or without the border. NI trades far more across the border to Eire than the other way. Eire must be in a much stronger position to change its trade to the rest of Europe, which it already does anyway, than NI who has to start from scratch from the other side of the globe. Ships leaving Belgian, Dutch etc ports can easily divert to Dublin etc, presumably with necessary investment in the latter's ports, to replace the losses coming across the border.
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