cod'ead wrote:
Growth built on a housing bubble and consumer debt?
Quite wrong and flies in the face of the facts.
"There is now growth across virtually the whole economy" source The Guardian
Although it is possible to have a recovery without a rise in consumer spending, that recover is likely to be very weak because consumer spending accounts for almost two thirds of our GDP (62%) therefore expecting all the growth to come from the remaining 38% is asking too much.
Evidence: In the final quarter of 2013 consumer spending rose at a slower rate (2.4%) than the overall GDP (2.7%) This rise in consumer spending was dwarfed by the increase in investment 8.7% and business investment 8.5%
Of course consumers played their part in the recovery. Of the 2.7% rise in GDP, 1.5 percentage points came from consumer spending. Their contribution to growth, just over half, was however smaller than their long-run 62% share of GDP
All three of the main sectors of the economy grew over the past year; industrial production by 2.3%, services by 2.7% and construction by 4.3%.
As for "consumer debt" most of this borrowing is in the form of mortgages to finance house purchase, not current spending. The pre-crisis norm, using housing equity for holidays, cars and kitchens, went into reverse in 2008 and is still in reverse now.
cod'ead wrote:
Where have we heard that one before?
Well I guess this rubbish you keep quoting is from that discredited fraudster Danny Blanchflower whose crystal ball has been a bit cloudy for several years now.
Source: ST