Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:10 am  

GUBRATS wrote:

Getting away from the economics of the decision

It's convenient to 'get away' from the economics of the decision isn't it? In the same way that it's convenient to get away from the £350 million quid a week for the NHS, or the end of free movement; because they are inconvenient truths, or more appropriately in the latter two examples, untruths. As Roy Heggarty has pointed out in great detail however, there is no getting away from the economics of the decision - it's a total disaster for our economy, the depth of which has nowhere near been revealed in the few days since the referendum. The market is only just starting to react - it's going to get significantly worse and last for a long time, unless some wonk at Westminster can come up with a way to get us out of this insane situation.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:01 pm  

bren2k wrote:

It's convenient to 'get away' from the economics of the decision isn't it? In the same way that it's convenient to get away from the £350 million quid a week for the NHS, or the end of free movement; because they are inconvenient truths, or more appropriately in the latter two examples, untruths. As Roy Heggarty has pointed out in great detail however, there is no getting away from the economics of the decision - it's a total disaster for our economy, the depth of which has nowhere near been revealed in the few days since the referendum. The market is only just starting to react - it's going to get significantly worse and last for a long time, unless some wonk at Westminster can come up with a way to get us out of this insane situation.

In your opinion.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:32 pm  

Its started already. https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... are_btn_tw

Its started already. https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... are_btn_tw

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 5:28 pm  

Biff Tannen wrote:

In your opinion.

Reality not part of your scene then?

What is happening is only a figment of someones imagination?

You'll be saying next that Carlsberg is proper beer and that a big Mac meal is a gourmets delight! Actually you may not but there so many who will think that and I could hazard an educated guess how they voted!

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 5:51 pm  

which country will be the next to leave this failing europe then?

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:07 pm  

bren2k wrote:

It's convenient to 'get away' from the economics of the decision isn't it? In the same way that it's convenient to get away from the £350 million quid a week for the NHS, or the end of free movement; because they are inconvenient truths, or more appropriately in the latter two examples, untruths. As Roy Heggarty has pointed out in great detail however, there is no getting away from the economics of the decision - it's a total disaster for our economy, the depth of which has nowhere near been revealed in the few days since the referendum. The market is only just starting to react - it's going to get significantly worse and last for a long time, unless some wonk at Westminster can come up with a way to get us out of this insane situation.

A little improvement today , obviously not to Thursdays inflated levels , but considering the current turmoil not too bad up to now IMO

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:11 pm  

Leaguefan wrote:

Reality not part of your scene then?

What is happening is only a figment of someones imagination?

You'll be saying next that Carlsberg is proper beer and that a big Mac meal is a gourmets delight! Actually you may not but there so many who will think that and I could hazard an educated guess how they voted!

what is happening any sane man knew would do, that there would be negative reactions in the markets and elsewhere however comments that it will get significantly worse are yet to be proven, hence it is only an opinion and not certain to happen. I have no problem with that opinion, it may be proven correct in time, we will see but nobody really knows for sure and that is the only fact here.

your attempt at humour and belittling those who have a different opinion to yourself is in line with almost every other poster on these boards i have encountered so far since the result didn't go the way you wanted, too bad.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:24 pm  

bren2k wrote:

It's convenient to 'get away' from the economics of the decision isn't it? In the same way that it's convenient to get away from the £350 million quid a week for the NHS, or the end of free movement; because they are inconvenient truths, or more appropriately in the latter two examples, untruths. As Roy Heggarty has pointed out in great detail however, there is no getting away from the economics of the decision - it's a total disaster for our economy, the depth of which has nowhere near been revealed in the few days since the referendum. The market is only just starting to react - it's going to get significantly worse and last for a long time, unless some wonk at Westminster can come up with a way to get us out of this insane situation.

I notice you chose to avoid my actual point , essentially we are leaving the German European Union , there might be 27 members other than us , but like us , they don't make the rules

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:35 pm  

GUBRATS wrote:

A little improvement today , obviously not to Thursdays inflated levels , but considering the current turmoil not too bad up to now IMO

We've got companies who've lost 30-40% of their pre-vote value on Thursday, who've today regathered 8% from that new low. This is quite probably what's known in the trade as a Dead Cat Bounce. The clever trading institutions stop selling for a bit - even buy a little - to stabilise the price. The less clever institutions (and the private investors) are fooled into thinking it's the bottom, and so they jump in for a rise, only to be left high and dry on the spike as the big guys start selling again.

Nothing goes down (or up) in a straight line. We've had the initial shock which accounted for the record-breaking movements. While nothing concrete happens (or the complete political chaos we currently have obscures anything), the markets will dash this way and that, like a flock of starlings. If it looks like a down day, the algos will jump on that and exaggerate it, and ditto if the day looks positive. Occasionally events such as announcements from Merkel, or downgrades by the credit agencies will send a bigger shock and bigger movements. But in the meantime, monitor the trend, and remember that a 10% loss is bigger than a 10% gain. It's far too early to see the trend, because we're only 3 days in now. But it'll be down - guaranteed.

It's also worth bearing in mind that whenever there is news or a solid hint that there might be a way of reversing this mess (what Johnson says will now be something watched very carefully by the markets - astonishingly), the markets will rise. Whenever it seems likely that we really are planning to drive off the cliff, they'll fall. That on its own should tell us what the impact of this will be for our economy in the short, medium and long-term. International money is attracted to safety and growth potential, and flees insecurity and negative growth. The view of international cash is unanimous - Brexit is a disaster.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:42 pm  

GUBRATS wrote:

I notice you chose to avoid my actual point , essentially we are leaving the German European Union , there might be 27 members other than us , but like us , they don't make the rules

That's unfortunately not true, as we'll find out. When we're begging for scraps from the door in terms of trade agreements, the individual countries will each get a say in what we're allowed. So the Germans are clearly going after our financial services market. The Eastern Europeans will veto any deal which doesn't guarantee free movement of Labour and citizenship rights for those who are already here. The Spanish will insist on the same or greater share of fishing in British waters. The French will slap on barriers to British agriculture. Everyone inside the room will have their own specific local industry which is in direct competition with a British firm, and they'll all want specific advantages. In the past, we've been able to veto those advantages, but now, of course, we won't. We'll have to take what we're given.