Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:46 am  

Let us not forget that Trump is also north of 70 even if his tan and hair? try to suggest otherwise.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:23 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

Steyer and Buttegieg gone, surely Klobuchar is going to drop out soon. The only one left with a chance is Warren, who may be able to attract supporters from both Bernie and Biden.

Bloomberg can stay in as a sideshow as long as he has money to burn on it.

Biden does have some natural advantages in terms of his natural base, but his problem is he is so poor in these debates. He is basically a poor man's Hilary.

Do you still think Bernie is going to be challenging Trump?

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:32 pm  

No I think it's a near certainty that Biden has got the nomination now.

The others all dropping out and endorsing Biden before Super Tuesday made the difference.

I think this plays well into Trump's hands. Biden is the easiest opponent for him because he can use the same model that worked against Hilary:

- "Establishment swamp" - Biden has had the same establishment forces rallying behind him that Hilary had to ensure that he got the nomination. Neither really had a groundswell grass roots movement.

- "Corruption" - Hunter Biden will be the "Hilary's emails" of the campaign.

Hilary was at least a confident debater. Biden is a bumbler who will look weak in comparison to Trump. He also possesses some of Trump's unpleasant characteristics (arrogant, smug, sexist, rude) without going all out and owning it like Trump does.

However it's not in the bag for Trump because coronavirus and the likely economic impacts will remove Trump's ace in the pack about "booming economy" and also expose him as a weak leader, if it hits the US medical system hard and he is seen to be ineffective in dealing with it and instead using the crisis to just blame others. It's easy for people to rally behind Trump's attacks on others when people aren't experiencing the effects themselves, but coronavirus impacts are going to hit his base too.

Trump doesn't have a broad coalition of voters, his strategy is on holding his base firm and making sure the electoral college holds for him, so he's vulnerable to a small degradation of that base. Biden has a chance of beating him no matter how unimpressive he is, as just the "anyone but Trump" candidate.

One thing which will be decisive will be whether Bernie's supporters actively campaign for Biden (which will be hard for them to accept) or whether some just don't bother turning out and voting - I think this hit Hilary.

If Biden becomes President though, I expect him to be a very unimpressive President and an easy target for Republican media. The best thing he could do is see himself as a one term President and intend to hand over the reins to one of the younger ones next time. So the choice of running mate will be quite interesting.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:14 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

No I think it's a near certainty that Biden has got the nomination now.

The others all dropping out and endorsing Biden before Super Tuesday made the difference.

I think this plays well into Trump's hands. Biden is the easiest opponent for him because he can use the same model that worked against Hilary:

- "Establishment swamp" - Biden has had the same establishment forces rallying behind him that Hilary had to ensure that he got the nomination. Neither really had a groundswell grass roots movement.

- "Corruption" - Hunter Biden will be the "Hilary's emails" of the campaign.

Hilary was at least a confident debater. Biden is a bumbler who will look weak in comparison to Trump. He also possesses some of Trump's unpleasant characteristics (arrogant, smug, sexist, rude) without going all out and owning it like Trump does.

However it's not in the bag for Trump because coronavirus and the likely economic impacts will remove Trump's ace in the pack about "booming economy" and also expose him as a weak leader, if it hits the US medical system hard and he is seen to be ineffective in dealing with it and instead using the crisis to just blame others. It's easy for people to rally behind Trump's attacks on others when people aren't experiencing the effects themselves, but coronavirus impacts are going to hit his base too.

Trump doesn't have a broad coalition of voters, his strategy is on holding his base firm and making sure the electoral college holds for him, so he's vulnerable to a small degradation of that base. Biden has a chance of beating him no matter how unimpressive he is, as just the "anyone but Trump" candidate.

One thing which will be decisive will be whether Bernie's supporters actively campaign for Biden (which will be hard for them to accept) or whether some just don't bother turning out and voting - I think this hit Hilary.

If Biden becomes President though, I expect him to be a very unimpressive President and an easy target for Republican media. The best thing he could do is see himself as a one term President and intend to hand over the reins to one of the younger ones next time. So the choice of running mate will be quite interesting.

I think your synopsis is spot on - Biden is unimpressive as a potential leader - I find it incredible that there aren't better candidates in the whole of the US. Trump should be an easy target - but then the Tories should have been a slam dunk for Labour - look what happened

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:29 pm  

The problem I hope for Trump is that they have actually seen him at work, rather than purely based on what he says before an election.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:57 pm  

Trump expected to declare national emergency over coronavirus.

But I thought it was a liberal hoax? I thought the US were doing just great?

These tinpot leaders can lie all they want about jobs, the economoy, trade, and immigration, but when people start panicking, getting sick and dying from a virus, there's only so many porkies you can tell before your cover's very quickly blown.

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:00 am  

King Street Cat wrote:

Trump expected to declare national emergency over coronavirus.

But I thought it was a liberal hoax? I thought the US were doing just great?

These tinpot leaders can lie all they want about jobs, the economoy, trade, and immigration, but when people start panicking, getting sick and dying from a virus, there's only so many porkies you can tell before your cover's very quickly blown.

Boris is not everyone's cup of tea but his handling of Covid19 has been very good - he has got the tone just about right

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:14 pm  

Boris' response has probably shown a big difference between him and Trump.

When Boris was London Mayor one of the things that got said about him was that he was by nature a delegator. He doesn't have the delusion that Trump does that he's an all-knowing genius. Hence his reliance on Dominic Cummings for general policy strategy.

With this crisis, Boris has at least recognised his limitations and brought experts with him to the press conferences. But like you say he has struck the right tone, he hasn't tried to be political or overly bombastic, and he has largely deferred to the experts without looking like he's shoving the blame on to them.

I think he's done OK, he's clearly uncomfortable in this kind of situation as he is more in his element doing the "pumping up the nations' spirits" talk rather than dealing with matters as serious as this, some of his phrasing has been a bit bumbling but overall I think he's been OK.

Trump on the other hand is a complete disaster, it is apparent that he doesn't know what he is doing and I'm sure this is making the panic worse especially on the stock markets.

Obama would have stood up to the plate and given leadership to the world, and Trump and the Republicans would have been sniping from the outside. They are like rabbits in the headlights when the responsibility is on them.

[Mild Rover]

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:32 pm  

Johnson isn’t my cup of tea, but I agree he’s done okay. It’s impossible to know what is the best course of action, and that’d apply to any leader, but the tone is serious enough without being too panicky, and the plan seems a reasonable best guess.

For now we’re all on the same side. Hopefully it’ll pass without too much pain and loss and we can get back to our gammon-snowflake mutual loathing soon!

Re: US Presidential election 2020 : Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:05 am  

Hancock has gone up in my estimation - he has handled this really well. Whatever the government do it will not be right for all people. In Italy and Spain they have locked everything down doesn't seem to have slowed the infections/deaths any? We still have to be able to function the country simply cannot come to grinding halt surely?

As for the elderly the government is between a rock and a hard place - isolate them and they will suffer mentally and physically - do nothing and there is a potential for an increase in the death-rate?