ninearches wrote:
In or out of No 10 after the election i can't see Boris being the party leader for very long.
He might be a good laugh on a Saturday night booze up but otherwise he comes across as a buffoon.
Boris has a more secure position as party leader because there isn't an obvious leadership challenger in waiting. There are some who covet the job, like Gove, Javid and Hunt, but they don't offer anything new and are seen as part of the same cabal. The next leader will only come when there has been a public shift away from this form of populist politics.
This analysis may become outdated very soon if the election result tomorrow is different to what I expect, but I think Boris will win a majority, on the back of a lot of seats in traditional Labour heartlands of the north and midlands. Whilst this will be hailed as a great success for Boris - 'the first Tory with the ability to connect with people in Labour heartlands', it will contain the seeds of his downfall later.
The difficulties for Boris will be that Brexit will present some challenges that hit those areas more than London and the southern cities and shires. All of the analysis has said that since the referendum. At the moment Boris has a line that resonates in those areas: 'get Brexit done - you voted Leave, other politicians want to dilly and dally, I'm going to do it'. But once it's done that line is gone and he needs something else. If the local economy in those areas goes through hard times then it will be like the 1980s and the Tories becoming unpopular again. Unlike Thatcher, who didn't have a lot of those seats anyway (certainly after 1987), he won't be able to just shrug and say they are Labour areas who cares. A lot of his MPs will be from those places and they might not have huge majorities. If it gets to 2023 and times are hard and they sense the direction of travel is them losing their seats in 2024, they will look for a new direction.
This is what led to Thatcher's demise. I think she could have survived the Poll Tax, as the worst effects of that were in Labour areas anyway. But the high interest rates and downturn that hit her heartlands in 1990 saw her MPs get twitchy, especially when Eastbourne by election went to the Lib Dems and a lot of her MPs looked at that and thought, if that can go, we're all in danger.
Boris isn't a great statesman or leader who will be able to manage the economy through difficult times like Obama did. He's just a blagger and buffoon who only cares about furthering his own interests. So when serious questions of government are asked, and they will be in the aftermath of Brexit for sure, he won't be up to answering them and that will be his downfall.