Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:26 pm
At the moment Brexit hasn't happened, so we haven't seen any of the negative consequences that will happen. People can still say "it's all project fear". A lot of people voted Leave out of frustration with the status quo and think that Brexit is going to make things better rather than worse. The reality that Boris will have to deal with is that Brexit is going to create a lot of negative consequences and a lot of tough decisions and trade-offs that will leave some groups unhappy. When those realities hit people, and Brexit is no longer a hypothetical situation which the 'establishment' is denying the democratic will of the people for, the terms of political debate will completely change.
Businesses will face all sorts of higher costs, especially if they export or import anything from the EU or are involved in a supply chain with firms who do. Restriction on migration will create hiring shortages and drive up wages. Remember - as the Tories like to keep telling us - we're at close to full employment and have been for a while. There isn't a huge pool of unemployed workers in the UK with the skills needed to fill these jobs. Higher costs will lead to higher prices for consumers.
Boris and his allies have spent 3 years denying the idea of 'project fear' and insisting that we have a 'great future round the corner' outside the EU. They can't backtrack now if negative economic effects happen and blame Brexit. The size of Boris' majority also removes any opportunity to blame Parliament / 'the establishment'. The Conservative government will face full accountability.
Some of those newly elected Conservative MPs in northern areas are going to face some difficult conversations with their constituents particularly if they have spend the election campaign knocking doors insisting that Labour has abandoned them and the Conservatives are the ones listening to the working class. The way the Tory party operates with its MPs is with tightly controlled 'lines to take' and so when they get angry northerners coming to their surgeries complaining about problems with their hospital they will get told, we've put record investment in to the NHS, 30,000 new nurses and we've got Brexit done etc etc whatever, and the people just won't hack it.
Also at the first sign of things going wrong after Brexit, Boris will have to deal with Farage reappearing on the airwaves criticising him as a sell out. Expect an early battle to be over access to fishing rights. The EU are going to drive a hard bargain with the UK over this if Boris wants to get this deal concluded by the end of transition, and with his large majority Boris can probably just concede on it like he did over the border down the Irish Sea and cut off the DUP. Those angry fishing communities will be one of the first groups to say they were betrayed over Brexit (farmers probably will be second) and Farage will position himself as their champion and start to lay in to Boris.
