Re: General Election campaign : Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:49 pm  

Looks like Farage may give Labour a boost after all.
It seems like Farage is now trying to pressure on Johnson to go for no deal by threatening to put candidates against the Tories in every seat if Johnson doesn't scrap his deal.

Maybe a lifeline for Jezza ?

Re: General Election campaign : Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:51 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Looks like Farage may give Labour a boost after all.
It seems like Farage is now trying to pressure on Johnson to go for no deal by threatening to put candidates against the Tories in every seat if Johnson doesn't scrap his deal.

Maybe a lifeline for Jezza ?

I see big positives for the Tories if Boris sticks to his guns - bad news for Labour as he will take votes off them from the leave constituencies especially the Labour ones.

Re: General Election campaign : Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:25 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I see big positives for the Tories if Boris sticks to his guns - bad news for Labour as he will take votes off them from the leave constituencies especially the Labour ones.

It's in fact the total opposite of what you suggest.
Farage was going to put candidates in all of the Labour held seats but, the offer was there, to not fight for Tory held seats.
With leave voters having a 50/50 choice between Farage & Boris (not a great choice, I admit), the leave vote will be split, severely damaging Boris's chances of an overall majority.
This is a huge headache for Cummings and the Tory strategists, especially when you factor in the ERG's wishes of no deal.
It would appear that, despite the disastrous likely hit to the ecconomy, the Tories may all have to shuffle even further to the right.

Re: General Election campaign : Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:09 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

It's in fact the total opposite of what you suggest.
Farage was going to put candidates in all of the Labour held seats but, the offer was there, to not fight for Tory held seats.
With leave voters having a 50/50 choice between Farage & Boris (not a great choice, I admit), the leave vote will be split, severely damaging Boris's chances of an overall majority.
This is a huge headache for Cummings and the Tory strategists, especially when you factor in the ERG's wishes of no deal.
It would appear that, despite the disastrous likely hit to the ecconomy, the Tories may all have to shuffle even further to the right.

Very few leavers want a no deal Brexit - a few hardliners it will push the vote towards the Brexit party. Farage is despised - Boris is very popular for me its a win-win for Boris. There are what 25 in the ERG hardly a dominant force in the Tory party.

Re: General Election campaign : Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:20 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I see big positives for the Tories if Boris sticks to his guns - bad news for Labour as he will take votes off them from the leave constituencies especially the Labour ones.

Do you have any empirical evidence about the numbers of leave voters who are single subject enough to vote that way but didn't already switch to the Tories in the 2017 election? We saw bumps in the Tory vote in a lot of places last time (less so than Labour but still a lot) so I'm curious to what degree these people actually exist (I'm sure they do, but to what extent?).

The most likely scenario is the Tory vote falls by less than the Labour one, which will give them the advantage in plenty of constituencies; but will it be enough to offset their almost certain losses in the SW, Scotland and London? Even a 10 point Tory lead may see them barely scrape a majority; it all depends on the vote distribution.

Re: General Election campaign : Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:35 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Very few leavers want a no deal Brexit - a few hardliners it will push the vote towards the Brexit party. Farage is despised - Boris is very popular for me its a win-win for Boris. There are what 25 in the ERG hardly a dominant force in the Tory party.

Comedy gold right there Sal, absolutely hilarious.
It's the ERG that did for Mrs May and have held their party to ransom.

As for "no deal", I think this is where we are heading if, either Farage wins a number of seats or, looks like threatening a Tory majority.
When you hear people bemoaning the fact that we havent left yet, a fair proportion do seem to want no deal.
Again, they appear to have been taken in by Farage's rhetoric but, I'm sure that they all fully understand exactly what they want

Remember, with a majority in single figures, it really doesn't take much to hold the government to ransom and those driving Brexit from within the Tory Party DO want no deal or, as close as they can get to that position.

Wake up and smell the coffee.

Re: General Election campaign : Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:15 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Comedy gold right there Sal, absolutely hilarious.
It's the ERG that did for Mrs May and have held their party to ransom.

As for "no deal", I think this is where we are heading if, either Farage wins a number of seats or, looks like threatening a Tory majority.
When you hear people bemoaning the fact that we havent left yet, a fair proportion do seem to want no deal.
Again, they appear to have been taken in by Farage's rhetoric but, I'm sure that they all fully understand exactly what they want

Remember, with a majority in single figures, it really doesn't take much to hold the government to ransom and those driving Brexit from within the Tory Party DO want no deal or, as close as they can get to that position.

Wake up and smell the coffee.

Didn't 200+ Labour MPs vote against May's deal 3 times or did I imagine that?

Farage hasn't been able to win a seat yet - he is no liked or trusted. Brexit might take some seats of Labour which will help but if the polls are correct and stay the way they are then Boris will not need him. Its a bit like remainers - they think the EU will remain exactly as it is now and our relationship with the EU will be exactly as it is - sadly we all know that will not be the case - as you say "wake up and smell the coffee"

Re: General Election campaign : Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:48 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Didn't 200+ Labour MPs vote against May's deal 3 times or did I imagine that?

How did Johnson vote? Interesting if you view that as disqualifying.

Re: General Election campaign : Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:39 am  

Ridiculously, the political party’s most in favour of staying in the EU (Lib Dem and Green) will probably enable Brexit.

The Brexit vote will be split 2 ways between Conservatives and Brexit Party.

The remain vote will be split 3 ways between Labour, Lib Dem and Green.
In Scotland/Wales the remain vote is split 4 ways.

How can Jo Swinson and Caroline Lucas justify that when their whole campaign is based on staying in the EU.

Surely they should be standing down their candidates where they are a distant 3rd or 4th

Re: General Election campaign : Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:41 pm  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

How did Johnson vote? Interesting if you view that as disqualifying.

If Labour had voted for the deal it would have gone through - even you can't try and deflect that May's deal had all the protections they wanted and they still voted against it?