[DaveO]

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:15 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Maybe I am confused but this idea that unless you are in the EEC you cannot trade in Europe seems way off the mark. If you look at the biggest firms in the world a number are non european yet they all seem to trade in Europe with being part of the club. Wal-Mart has supermarkets here, Samsung electronics are in every electronic retailer, Toyota cars everywhere you look etc. Are you saying if Samsung were british its market in Europe would disappear if we pulled out of the EEC?

The way the government sells this country to the likes of Toyota is that it gives them access to the single market yet the UK is free from some of the more restrictive labour laws of our EU partners. Toyota and Nissan build cars here because we are part of the single market not because they like the weather.

Companies that do not build stuff in an EU country are a completely different case.

If we exit the single market companies like Toyota will exit the UK because they would lose access to the single market. Yes they could still build cars here and in theory could still try and sell them into Europe but what you need to understand is just how easy the single market makes that compared to trying to do it from the outside.

People really do need to understand there is a huge difference between trading inside the single market compared to outside of it. It is a piece of cake for large UK based companies (like Toyota)to trade within it.

The idea behind the single market and why it is different than the old common market some seen to think we could return to is its goal is that the movement of capital, labour, goods, and services between the members is as easy as it is within any country. That is not true in a common market which is just a free trade area that usually means free movement of capital and services is allowed but does not remove the other barriers to trade.

If you build as car here you can sell it in Germany without having to meet different regulations or facing an import quota. Tax (because we all use VAT) isn't a problem either so there is no import tax to consider. There are no borders, no technical standards to get in the way and no problems with taxes that make the movement of capital, labour, goods, and services more difficult. Exit the single market and those advantages disappear and so there would be no reason for Toyota or anyone else to set up shop here.

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:27 am  

DaveO wrote:

Whichever way the cookie crumbles Cameron has been exposed as the rank amateur he is when it comes to statesmanship. I detest Maggie thatcher with a vengeance but she was a constant thorn in the side of the EU and a reason she could be was because she was at the table. I doubt she would have been daft enough to remove herself from the negotiating table to appease a few nice but dim back benchers.

It might turn out that way, but you're assuming that this is the last word on the matter.

Friday's outcome is also a horrendous result for the EU. Having to set up raft of parallel structures and institutions to implement fiscal union will be a nightmare. By comparison, Cameron's demands were small beer.

I expect that when the dust has setlled there will be further negotiations. The test of Cameron's statemenship will be how he handles the conflicting demands of the Eurosceptics, who have undoubtedly smelt blood, with the "just say yes" position of the Lib Dems.

At the moment Cameron's position is no better or worse than that of a trade union leader who has stormed out of pay negotiations. He might look foolish now, but if he ends up receiving a better offer than was on the table last week he will feel vindicated.

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:42 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Maybe I am confused but this idea that unless you are in the EEC you cannot trade in Europe seems way off the mark. If you look at the biggest firms in the world a number are non european yet they all seem to trade in Europe with being part of the club. Wal-Mart has supermarkets here, Samsung electronics are in every electronic retailer, Toyota cars everywhere you look etc. Are you saying if Samsung were british its market in Europe would disappear if we pulled out of the EEC?

What on earth are you rabbiting on about?

Wal-Mart has a UK presence because it bought Asda and turned the larger stores into Wal-Marts. Samsung has plants in post-accession, Eastern Europe, the used to have plants here but upped sticks for cheap labour in Slovakia. A major factor in the far-eastern car manufacturers locating to the UK was the ease of hiring & firing compared to other pre-accession EU countries. But they came to the EU because it's cheaper and easier to sell within the EU if you have a manufacturing plant here.

If we detach from the EU, make no mistake about it, those car manufacturers will be among the first to bugger off. Nissan has links with Renault and has already threatened to move to France, if we're not in the club, that threat will become reality, as will many other hi-tech industries.

It's interesting that the CBI have been virtually silent about last week's performance by Cameron. But as they represent UK manufacturing interests, I reckon they are waiting for the detail before deciding what to say.

[DaveO]

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:49 am  

Cibaman wrote:

DaveO wrote:

Whichever way the cookie crumbles Cameron has been exposed as the rank amateur he is when it comes to statesmanship. I detest Maggie thatcher with a vengeance but she was a constant thorn in the side of the EU and a reason she could be was because she was at the table. I doubt she would have been daft enough to remove herself from the negotiating table to appease a few nice but dim back benchers.

It might turn out that way, but you're assuming that this is the last word on the matter.

Friday's outcome is also a horrendous result for the EU. Having to set up raft of parallel structures and institutions to implement fiscal union will be a nightmare. By comparison, Cameron's demands were small beer.

It all hinges on whether the Euro survives. If it does whether it is a horrendous task or not they will go ahead and set these things up and we will be excluded. All Cameron can do is try and make sure current EU institutions are not used in a way that disadvantages Britain and threatens the single market but if the 26 are not using any of those institutions to achieve their goal he can't do that.

Even if they do try and use current institutions to achieve their aim come 2014 there is a change coming in whereby a lot more stuff including EU financial regulation is not subject to a veto. Changes can them be made based on qualified majority voting and he will be stuffed.

I expect that when the dust has setlled there will be further negotiations. The test of Cameron's statemenship will be how he handles the conflicting demands of the Eurosceptics, who have undoubtedly smelt blood, with the "just say yes" position of the Lib Dems.

Negotiations about what? He used the veto to kill off the Franco German inspired solution and simply forced them to take their solution to a place he could not interfere with it.

At the moment Cameron's position is no better or worse than that of a trade union leader who has stormed out of pay negotiations. He might look foolish now, but if he ends up receiving a better offer than was on the table last week he will feel vindicated.

You are assuming they will go round the loop again with us in it. They just decided not to do that.

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:07 am  

DaveO wrote:

You are assuming they will go round the loop again with us in it. They just decided not to do that.

I don't know why people don't get that the EU wants the UK in because of the money we bring to the table, tens of billions in net contributions year in year out, 3rd biggest economy by GDP in EU, significant contributor to IMF bailout fund, and we're less exposed to current sovereign debt issue than France who are 2nd biggest economy by GDP. Forget red herrings about empire and Britain as former economic powerhouse, we are still 6th biggest economy in the world and that really matters to the EU, especially when the begging bowl is out.

This is the 5th time they've been through this loop, and I'm pretty sure each of the previous times was supposed to draw a line under the issue, just as I'm pretty sure the same will be claimed the next 5 times they go through the loop with the UK back at the table because nobody is really convinced they've got enough in this iteration for anything more than a bit more breathing space till they get to the next iteration. That's how these things really work, media copy might make it sound fatalistic, but it's not, it's the money that matters at the end of the day.

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:07 am  

DaveO wrote:

You are assuming they will go round the loop again with us in it. They just decided not to do that.

No different to the employer stating "that was our final offer" when the trade union leader stormed out in the early hours of the morning. Time will tell.

[DaveO]

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:39 am  

Cibaman wrote:

DaveO wrote:

You are assuming they will go round the loop again with us in it. They just decided not to do that.

No different to the employer stating "that was our final offer" when the trade union leader stormed out in the early hours of the morning. Time will tell.

Cameron killed the negotiations dead. He did't walk away ion the hope of a better offer. Your analogy is completely wrong.

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:46 am  

DaveO wrote:

Cibaman wrote:

DaveO wrote:

You are assuming they will go round the loop again with us in it. They just decided not to do that.

No different to the employer stating "that was our final offer" when the trade union leader stormed out in the early hours of the morning. Time will tell.

Cameron killed the negotiations dead. He did't walk away ion the hope of a better offer. Your analogy is completely wrong.

We'll see

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:48 am  

Cibaman wrote:

DaveO wrote:

Cibaman wrote:

DaveO wrote:

You are assuming they will go round the loop again with us in it. They just decided not to do that.

No different to the employer stating "that was our final offer" when the trade union leader stormed out in the early hours of the morning. Time will tell.

Cameron killed the negotiations dead. He did't walk away ion the hope of a better offer. Your analogy is completely wrong.

We'll see

If he goes back to the table, the likes of Bill Cash will make sure he won't be leader come the end of 2012

Re: What now for the UK? : Mon Dec 12, 2011 12:04 pm  

People almost predicting the end of the world because we will have less ties with EU.

Total scaremongering.

The Swiss have managed just fine.