[Durham Giant]

It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:38 am  

Looks like the economy is back in recession which shows that the Coalition did get it wrong on the economy cutting spending too fast. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17836624

Looks like the economy is back in recession which shows that the Coalition did get it wrong on the economy cutting spending too fast. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17836624

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:13 am  

Durham Giant wrote: Looks like the economy is back in recession which shows that the Coalition did get it wrong on the economy cutting spending too fast. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17836624 No, no, you've got it all wrong. You see, if they had cut spending at a more reasonable rate, things would be even worse. Have you seen '28 days later'?

Durham Giant wrote: Looks like the economy is back in recession which shows that the Coalition did get it wrong on the economy cutting spending too fast. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17836624 No, no, you've got it all wrong. You see, if they had cut spending at a more reasonable rate, things would be even worse. Have you seen '28 days later'?

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:16 am  

Durham Giant wrote: Looks like the economy is back in recession which shows that the Coalition did get it wrong on the economy cutting spending too fast. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17836624 Why does it show the Coalition got it wrong by cutting spending too quickly? It simply doesn't. It shows we may be in recession, but that's more likely as a result of debt, sqeezed real incomes, the Eurozone, etc, etc and probably little to do with public spending cuts.

Durham Giant wrote: Looks like the economy is back in recession which shows that the Coalition did get it wrong on the economy cutting spending too fast. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17836624 Why does it show the Coalition got it wrong by cutting spending too quickly? It simply doesn't. It shows we may be in recession, but that's more likely as a result of debt, sqeezed real incomes, the Eurozone, etc, etc and probably little to do with public spending cuts.

[DaveO]

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:38 am  

Dally wrote:

....and probably little to do with public spending cuts.

You don't half write some rubbish at times. When a government stops spending it has a huge effect on the economy. Period.

It was only last week it was on the radio that we were in fact likely to avoid a double dip recession because the panic buying of fuel induced by the government had increased economic activity sufficiently to keep the growth figure positive!

I thought then I couldn't believe my ears that they needed this "false" demand in the economy to keep things positive and would no doubt be singing the news from the hills that they had avoided the double dip as a result. As the BBC article points out the extra fuel buying is not in these figures so if they were relying on this false demand in the domestic economy to keep things positive it stands to reason it there wasn't enough demand in the domestic economy without it to avoid a recession. Why is domestic economic activity so weak that it needs panic fuel buying to keep it out of recession? Because things like the construction industry are in recession (as the figures show) and they rely heavily on government contracts.

Demand will weaken further as government policy on benefit cuts come in to force this month and with more job cuts to come.

The idea public spending cuts have not contributed to these figures in a big was is ridiculous.

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:38 am  

It also proves (as in that link) that "City Forecasters" are about as good at doing their job of forecasting as my dog is, even on this mornings news bullitens the "city forecasters" were predicting that the country would narrowly avoid recession with growth "predicted" as 0.1%.

I could understand it if they were a smidgen out but they were miles away with their "forecast".

Remember folks, these are the same people who are in charge of your ISA's and pensions.

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:41 am  

Brace yourselves for a round of 'we inherited...............................................' from the ConDem MP's

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:44 am  

Dally wrote:

Why does it show the Coalition got it wrong by cutting spending too quickly? It simply doesn't. It shows we may be in recession, but that's more likely as a result of debt, sqeezed real incomes, the Eurozone, etc, etc and probably little to do with public spending cuts.

Strange we're lagging behind most other economies as compared to 2008 though?

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:46 am  

DaveO wrote:

You don't half write some rubbish at times. When a government stops spending it has a huge effect on the economy. Period.

Says the man who puts 3 full stops at the end of a sentence.

[DaveO]

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:46 am  

McLaren_Field wrote:

It also proves (as in that link) that "City Forecasters" are about as good at doing their job of forecasting as my dog is, even on this mornings news bullitens the "city forecasters" were predicting that the country would narrowly avoid recession with growth "predicted" as 0.1%.

+0.1% or -0.2% doesn't really matter in the real world they don't live in. Both alternatives are crap and show the idea the private sector would step in and drive economic recovery is not happening.

I first heard the panic buying of fuel would keep us out of a recession on the BBC radio 2 drive time business five minutes slot and not once was the economist who stated this asked the obvious questions that isn't it a rather false picture if we have to rely on that to keep us out of recession?

What he did say though was that even if this (false) demand had kept us out of recession it was a good thing because market sentiment was all important. So it seems it doesn't matter how you spin it to avoid recession provided you can kid yourself you are doing so that is all right.

[Durham Giant]

Re: It's a Double dip : Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:49 am  

Dally wrote:

Why does it show the Coalition got it wrong by cutting spending too quickly? It simply doesn't. It shows we may be in recession, but that's more likely as a result of debt, sqeezed real incomes, the Eurozone, etc, etc and probably little to do with public spending cuts.

Surely even you can recognise that pay freezes, masive job cuts, and reductions in spending by the Government is going to contribute to squeezed real incomes